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Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 08/05/2023
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Riga
Riga
Vs
76%
17%
7%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga win✓ Hit
76.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
6.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W11D30W20W20W11D40W40W30W31WH·FS 12/03H·RĪG18/03A·FK 01/04H·AUD06/04A·TUK10/04A·BFC15/04A·SUP20/04H·MET25/04H·VAL30/04A·FS 04/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.230.702.130.602.330.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.671.000.501.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)2.410.672.380.542.430.79
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L12L30W23L11D11D05L01L02L33DA·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04H·VAL11/04H·RIG15/04H·RĪG19/04A·FK 23/04H·AUD28/04H·TUK03/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.971.121.750.712.21
vs Stronger (9)0.563.110.672.500.334.33
vs Similar (18)0.831.331.221.220.441.44
vs Weaker (3)2.672.333.002.002.502.50
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.3%
No
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.8%
1-0 ✓
11.9%
3-0
11.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-1
8.0%
4-0
6.8%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.1%
Riga goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
06.1%2.4%0.9%0.2%0.0%
112%8.0%2.1%0.4%0.1%
215%8.5%2.5%0.5%0.1%
312%6.7%1.9%0.4%0.1%
46.8%3.9%1.1%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Riga is 1.44 points better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (2.44 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Riga is 1.36 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (2.47 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Riga is 0.86 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L30W00D10W01L20W20W20W10WH·FS 12/03H·RĪG18/03A·FK 01/04H·AUD06/04A·TUK10/04A·BFC15/04A·SUP20/04H·MET25/04H·VAL30/04A·FS 04/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.300.800.201.070.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.330.330.000.501.000.00
vs Weaker (27)1.000.300.920.151.070.43
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W12L00D10W02L00D00D21WA·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04H·VAL11/04H·RIG15/04H·RĪG19/04A·FK 23/04H·AUD28/04H·TUK03/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.620.620.430.71
vs Stronger (9)0.331.000.500.830.001.33
vs Similar (18)0.500.390.560.330.440.44
vs Weaker (3)1.331.332.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W00D20W10W10W20W20W10W21WH·FS 12/03H·RĪG18/03A·FK 01/04H·AUD06/04A·TUK10/04A·BFC15/04A·SUP20/04H·MET25/04H·VAL30/04A·FS 04/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.401.330.401.270.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Weaker (27)1.410.371.460.381.360.36
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L20W11D11D01L03L01L02L12LA·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04H·VAL11/04H·RIG15/04H·RĪG19/04A·FK 23/04H·AUD28/04H·TUK03/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.300.501.120.291.50
vs Stronger (9)0.222.110.171.670.333.00
vs Similar (18)0.330.940.670.890.001.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.000.001.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✗ Miss
Home win76.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Riga's squad is €13m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€16m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Riga's attack is €6m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€7m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€6m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
RIG wins
2
Draws
0
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from RIG
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG1-1
16/10/22HRIG Vs BFC Daugavpils4-0
15/08/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-4
18/05/22HRIG Vs BFC Daugavpils2-0
10/04/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-0

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/23AFS Jelgava Vs RIG1-3
30/04/23HRIG Vs Valmiera / BSS3-0
25/04/23HRIG Vs Metta / LU4-0
20/04/23ASuper Nova Vs RIG0-4
15/04/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG1-1
10/04/23ATukums Vs RIG0-2
06/04/23HRIG Vs Auda2-0
01/04/23AFK Liepaja Vs RIG0-3
18/03/23HRIG Vs Rīgas FS1-1
12/03/23HRIG Vs FS Jelgava2-1

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/23HBD Vs Tukums3-3
28/04/23HBD Vs Auda0-2
23/04/23AFK Liepaja Vs BD1-0
19/04/23HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-5
15/04/23HBD Vs Riga1-1
11/04/23HBD Vs Valmiera / BSS1-1
07/04/23AMetta / LU Vs BD3-2
01/04/23HBD Vs Super Nova3-0
17/03/23AFS Jelgava Vs BD2-1
12/03/23ATukums Vs BD1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.34
HomeWDWWW2.48
AwayWWDWW2.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%80%68%
AVG goals2.642.442.84
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Over 3.5 %30%20%40%
Scored2.021.962.08
Conceded0.620.480.76
BTTS32%28%36%
Clean Sheet58%60%56%
Corners8.6011.506.67
Cards5.003.506.50
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD0.87
HomeDDLLD1.12
AwayWLLLL0.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%25%18%
AVG goals2.762.712.82
Over 1.5 %74%79%68%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %35%33%36%
Scored0.891.080.68
Conceded1.871.622.14
BTTS43%50%36%
Clean Sheet22%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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