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Riga vs Grobiņa Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Riga
Riga
Vs
71%
20%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga win✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win✗ Miss
9.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W10W12L40W20W20W12L21W12LA·VAL11/11A·GRO10/03H·AUD16/03A·VAL31/03H·FK 04/04H·FS 08/04H·BFC12/04A·TUK16/04A·MET21/04H·RĪG27/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.872.060.811.710.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.251.750.502.500.001.00
vs Weaker (26)2.150.732.290.572.000.92
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W01L02L11D02L11D30W32W04L12LA·TUK12/11H·RIG10/03A·BFC16/03H·AUD31/03A·TUK04/04A·VAL09/04H·MET13/04H·FK 18/04H·RĪG23/04A·FS 28/04← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.072.530.802.001.33
vs Stronger (3)0.332.000.002.501.001.00
vs Similar (20)2.551.053.220.672.001.36
vs Weaker (7)2.290.712.250.252.331.33
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
13.7%
1-0
11.9%
3-0
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
5.3%
Riga goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
01234
06.8%3.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%
112%9.5%2.9%0.7%0.1%
214%9.3%3.1%0.7%0.1%
39.8%6.6%2.2%0.5%0.1%
45.3%3.6%1.2%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
Riga is 1.61 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (2.42 vs 0.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
Riga is 1.81 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (2.75 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
Riga is 1.53 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.64 vs 2.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W20W00D10W00D10W01LA·VAL11/11A·GRO10/03H·AUD16/03A·VAL31/03H·FK 04/04H·FS 08/04H·BFC12/04A·TUK16/04A·MET21/04H·RĪG27/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.270.750.380.710.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.000.500.000.500.000.50
vs Weaker (26)0.850.230.860.360.830.08
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L01L00D01L10W20W11D02L11DA·TUK12/11H·RIG10/03A·BFC16/03H·AUD31/03A·TUK04/04A·VAL09/04H·MET13/04H·FK 18/04H·RĪG23/04A·FS 28/04← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.471.070.401.270.53
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.001.501.000.00
vs Similar (20)1.200.401.220.221.180.55
vs Weaker (7)1.430.431.250.251.670.67
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W02L20W20W10W12L11D11DA·VAL11/11A·GRO10/03H·AUD16/03A·VAL31/03H·FK 04/04H·FS 08/04H·BFC12/04A·TUK16/04A·MET21/04H·RĪG27/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.601.310.441.000.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.251.250.502.000.000.50
vs Weaker (26)1.310.501.430.211.170.83
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L11D01L01L10W21W02L01LA·TUK12/11H·RIG10/03A·BFC16/03H·AUD31/03A·TUK04/04A·VAL09/04H·MET13/04H·FK 18/04H·RĪG23/04A·FS 28/04← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.470.400.730.80
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)1.350.652.000.440.820.82
vs Weaker (7)0.860.291.000.000.670.67
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.1%-------✓ Hit
Home win70.6%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Riga's squad is €13m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€16m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Riga's attack is €6m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€7m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€6m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
RIG wins
0
Draws
0
GRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga vs Grobiņa · H/A from RIG
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24AGrobiņa Vs RIG0-1

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/24HRIG Vs Rīgas FS1-2
21/04/24AMetta / LU Vs RIG1-2
16/04/24ATukums Vs RIG2-1
12/04/24HRIG Vs BFC Daugavpils2-0
08/04/24HRIG Vs FS Jelgava2-0
04/04/24HRIG Vs FK Liepaja4-0
31/03/24AValmiera / BSS Vs RIG2-1
16/03/24HRIG Vs Auda1-0
10/03/24AGrobiņa Vs RIG0-1
11/11/23AValmiera / BSS Vs RIG1-1

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24AFS Jelgava Vs GRO2-1
23/04/24HGRO Vs Rīgas FS0-4
18/04/24HGRO Vs FK Liepaja3-2
13/04/24HGRO Vs Metta / LU3-0
09/04/24AValmiera / BSS Vs GRO1-1
04/04/24ATukums Vs GRO2-0
31/03/24HGRO Vs Auda1-1
16/03/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs GRO2-0
10/03/24HGRO Vs Riga0-1
12/11/23ATukums II Vs GRO0-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL2.18
HomeWWWWL2.40
AwayDWLLW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%76%60%
AVG goals2.863.122.60
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored2.142.361.92
Conceded0.720.760.68
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet52%56%48%
Corners12.0012.6711.33
Cards3.503.004.00
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL2.12
HomeLDWWL2.40
AwayWLLDL1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%76%56%
AVG goals3.804.123.48
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %66%64%68%
Over 3.5 %50%60%40%
Scored2.723.202.24
Conceded1.080.921.24
BTTS50%40%60%
Clean Sheet42%52%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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