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Rīgas FS vs Auda Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 3-0
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Vs
57%
27%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
57.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-702L70W12L10W50W50W01L00D10W31WH·SAB26/07H·TUK29/07A·SAB03/08A·BFC08/08H·SUP13/08H·MET27/08A·VAL02/09H·RIG16/09A·FS 24/09H·FK 30/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.700.572.620.442.790.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.001.001.000.601.001.67
vs Weaker (22)3.320.413.360.363.270.45
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D14L30W22D20W10W31W21W01LH·SPA27/07H·FK 30/07A·SPA03/08H·FS 06/08A·TUK12/08A·BFC27/08H·SUP02/09H·MET15/09A·VAL24/09H·RIG30/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.201.071.331.401.07
vs Stronger (7)0.291.860.502.000.001.67
vs Similar (11)1.091.270.601.401.501.17
vs Weaker (12)1.920.751.830.832.000.67
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.4%
No
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.3%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.6%
2-1
8.9%
3-0 ✓
6.8%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
4.6%
Rīgas FS goals ↓
Auda goals →
01234
012%6.1%2.5%0.6%0.1%
115%12%3.9%0.9%0.2%
213%8.9%3.0%0.7%0.1%
36.8%4.6%1.6%0.4%0.1%
42.6%1.8%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Rīgas FS is 0.86 points better than Auda in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Rīgas FS is 1.44 goals better than Auda in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Rīgas FS is 0.58 goals better than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L50W00D00D30W20W01L00D10W20WH·SAB26/07H·TUK29/07A·SAB03/08A·BFC08/08H·SUP13/08H·MET27/08A·VAL02/09H·RIG16/09A·FS 24/09H·FK 30/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.271.310.250.930.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.500.400.400.670.67
vs Weaker (22)1.360.181.730.181.000.18
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W03L20W10W20W10W21W00D00DH·SPA27/07H·FK 30/07A·SPA03/08H·FS 06/08A·TUK12/08A·BFC27/08H·SUP02/09H·MET15/09A·VAL24/09H·RIG30/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.530.330.670.53
vs Stronger (7)0.000.430.000.250.000.67
vs Similar (11)0.270.640.200.400.330.83
vs Weaker (12)1.250.251.170.331.330.17
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W12L10W20W30W00D00D00D11DH·SAB26/07H·TUK29/07A·SAB03/08A·BFC08/08H·SUP13/08H·MET27/08A·VAL02/09H·RIG16/09A·FS 24/09H·FK 30/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.301.310.191.860.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.500.600.200.331.00
vs Weaker (22)1.950.231.640.182.270.27
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L11D10W12L00D00D10W21W01LH·SPA27/07H·FK 30/07A·SPA03/08H·FS 06/08A·TUK12/08A·BFC27/08H·SUP02/09H·MET15/09A·VAL24/09H·RIG30/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.531.000.730.53
vs Stronger (7)0.291.430.501.750.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.640.401.001.170.33
vs Weaker (12)0.670.500.670.500.670.50
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards79.9%--------
Over 19.5 fouls78.6%--------
Under 5.5 cards74.2%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Rīgas FS's squad is €5m more valuable than Auda's (€11m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Rīgas FS's attack is €3m more valuable than Auda's (€6m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Rīgas FS's midfield is €1m more valuable than Auda's (€2m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Rīgas FS and Auda have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
RF wins
4
Draws
0
AUD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Rīgas FS vs Auda · H/A from RF
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/23AAuda Vs RF2-5
21/05/23HRF Vs Auda2-0
10/04/23AAuda Vs RF0-0
09/10/22AAuda Vs RF1-1
24/07/22HRF Vs Auda0-0
15/05/22AAuda Vs RF0-1
06/04/22HRF Vs Auda0-0

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HRF Vs FK Liepaja3-1
24/09/23AFS Jelgava Vs RF0-1
16/09/23HRF Vs Riga0-0
02/09/23AValmiera / BSS Vs RF1-0
27/08/23HRF Vs Metta / LU5-0
13/08/23HRF Vs Super Nova5-0
08/08/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs RF0-1
03/08/23ASabah FA Vs RF2-1
29/07/23HRF Vs Tukums7-0
26/07/23HRF Vs Sabah FA0-2

AudaAuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HAUD Vs Riga0-1
24/09/23AValmiera / BSS Vs AUD1-2
15/09/23HAUD Vs Metta / LU3-1
02/09/23HAUD Vs Super Nova1-0
27/08/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs AUD0-2
12/08/23ATukums Vs AUD2-2
06/08/23HAUD Vs FS Jelgava3-0
03/08/23ASpartak Trnava Vs AUD4-1
30/07/23HAUD Vs FK Liepaja1-1
27/07/23HAUD Vs Spartak Trnava1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW2.02
HomeWWWDW2.21
AwayWLWLW1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%67%50%
AVG goals2.862.882.85
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %34%38%31%
Scored2.182.292.08
Conceded0.680.580.77
BTTS36%25%46%
Clean Sheet54%62%46%
Corners10.9012.409.40
Cards5.005.504.60
Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.46
HomeDWWWL1.48
AwayLLDWW1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%41%39%
AVG goals2.262.412.09
Over 1.5 %72%78%65%
Over 2.5 %34%41%26%
Over 3.5 %18%19%17%
Scored1.181.221.13
Conceded1.081.190.96
BTTS34%37%30%
Clean Sheet40%37%43%
Corners13.0013.00-
Cards4.005.003.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
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Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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