Rochdale are tipped to win, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of an Oldham win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% probability. Home form shows Rochdale scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 against stronger opposition, while Oldham, playing away against weaker teams, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 82.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.0%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.0% and Under 5.5 cards at 70.9%. Rochdale’s recent run of WLLLL ends with a win over Shrewsbury, whereas Oldham’s last five games (DWLWL) finish with a draw against Fleetwood Town. The match is expected to see a balanced contest, but the odds favour a home victory.
Results analysis
The upset came as Rochdale, the pre-match favourite, failed to deliver a home win, with Oldham snatching a 1-0 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 44% probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away win. Among the model’s selections, Over 2.5 cards at 82.2% missed, Over 1.5 at 75.0% missed, Under 3.5 at 73.0% hit, and Under 5.5 cards at 70.9% hit. Rochdale’s recent form had just one win in five, while Oldham’s last five included a draw, a win, a loss, a win and a loss. The match confirmed the model’s predictions on the total cards but not on the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rochdale win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.46
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.24
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oldham win✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.71
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.97
1.71
0.86
1.56
1.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.70
1.30
1.60
1.40
1.80
1.20
vs Similar (19)
1.58
0.84
1.78
0.56
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.13
1.93
1.07
1.56
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.82
1.00
0.60
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.06
1.33
2.44
1.33
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.93+0.2%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.83-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
7.9%
0-1 ✓
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
Rochdale goals ↓
Oldham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.1%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.5%
14%
7.0%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.1%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rochdale goals (down), columns = Oldham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Rochdale is 0.02 points better than Oldham in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Rochdale is 0.11 goals better than Oldham in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Rochdale is 0.09 goals better than Oldham in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.04).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Rochdale is 3.7 percentage points better than Oldham in terms of average possession (55% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.37
0.44
0.33
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.07
0.71
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.55
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
1.44
0.78
0.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.21
0.50
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
0.70
1.00
1.00
1.40
0.40
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.47
1.33
0.22
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
0.86
0.36
1.06
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.27
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.78
1.00
0.56
1.11
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rochdale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell25%
Zain Silcott-Duberry25%
Harvey Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Dajaune Brown33%
Kaiden Wilson33%
Harvey Gilmour25%
Sam Sherring25%
Nils Ramming25%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Zain Silcott-Duberry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
Harvey Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Zain Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt33%
Harvey Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Zain Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Oldham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mike Fondop33%
Keenan Appiah-Forson33%
Calum Kavanagh33%
Elliott Nevitt33%
Tom Pett0%
Mathew Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
Ollie Norburn0%
Jamie Robson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
Kane Drummond0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathew Hudson33%
Donervon Daniels33%
Ryan Delaney33%
Ollie Norburn33%
Calum Kavanagh33%
Elliott Nevitt33%
Tom Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
Jamie Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
Kane Drummond0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie Robson33%
Calum Kavanagh33%
Tom Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
Mathew Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
Ollie Norburn0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
Elliott Nevitt0%
Kane Drummond0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gus Scott-Morriss33%
Calum Kavanagh33%
Kane Drummond33%
Tom Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
Mathew Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
Ollie Norburn0%
Jamie Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Elliott Nevitt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Rochdale and Oldham have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Rochdale and Oldham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Rochdale and Oldham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Rochdale and Oldham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barnet
York
Forest Green
Halifax
Southend
Gateshead
Altrincham
Tamworth
Hartlepool
Sutton
Eastleigh
Solihull
Woking
Aldershot
Braintree Town
Yeovil
Boston Utd
Wealdstone