The clash at the Don Valley Stadium is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home side Rotherham, who have averaged 0.73 goals for and 1.45 against in similar opposition, are looking to improve after a 1-1 draw with York. Chesterfield, boasting 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against on the road, entered the match on a 1-0 victory over Salford. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14.4 %. The probability spread is 29 % for a Rotherham win, 31 % for a draw, and 40 % for a Chesterfield win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.0 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0 % with a 4 % edge), Under 4.5 (91.5 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 goals (91.2 % with a 5 % edge), and Away +2 handicap (88.5 % with a 5 % edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Chesterfield, was denied as Rotherham edged a 2-1 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model’s pick was wrong, with a 40% probability of an away triumph. The final score confirmed a home win. All of the model’s selections were settled: Under 7.5 hit, Under 6.5 hit, Home under 3.5 goals hit, Under 5.5 hit, Away under 3.5 goals hit, Under 4.5 hit, Home under 2.5 goals hit, and Away +2 handicap hit. Each hit carried a probability of 99.7%, 99.0%, 97.8%, 97.0%, 96.0%, 91.5%, 91.2% and 88.4% respectively. The match delivered a surprise, proving the model’s predictions on total goals and handicaps accurate, but its favourite call incorrect.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rotherham win✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.91
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Dafabet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.33
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
Chesterfield win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied 40.3% · @ 2.30
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.35
Dafabet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.32
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rotherham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.80
1.67
0.80
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.22
0.80
2.20
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.70
0.78
1.44
0.64
1.91
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.13
0.93
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.88
1.14
0.71
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
1.00
1.12
1.12
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotherham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.28-4.0%
Under 1.5
31.6%
@ 3.37+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.53
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.6%
@ 1.93-8.1%
Under 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.83+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
@ 3.32-7.8%
Under 3.5
79.8%
@ 1.29+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.8%
@ 1.72-6.1%
No
52.2%
@ 2.01+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 6.03+7.1%
0-1
11.3%@ 7.42+5.3%
0-0
11.3%@ 9.37+6.5%
1-0
9.1%@ 8.67+3.9%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.58+3.1%
0-2
8.0%@ 10.59+3.8%
2-1 ✓
6.8%@ 9.68+2.2%
2-0
5.4%@ 13.62+2.1%
Rotherham goals ↓
Chesterfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
1
9.1%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.4%
6.8%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rotherham goals (down), columns = Chesterfield goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Rotherham is 0.04 points worse than Chesterfield in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Rotherham is 0.04 goals better than Chesterfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Rotherham is 0.10 goals better than Chesterfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rotherham
For 3.2 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chesterfield
For 4.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rotherham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.7
3.9
4.2
3.6
23.6
23.5
23.8
vs Stronger (13)
9.3
8.9
9.8
4.6
5.1
4.0
22.5
21.6
23.5
vs Similar (36)
9.7
9.9
9.6
3.8
4.0
3.5
24.3
24.8
23.9
vs Weaker (1)
14.0
14.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
16.0
16.0
-
% over line
51%
54%
48%
60%
60%
60%
63%
58%
68%
% under line
49%
46%
52%
40%
40%
40%
37%
42%
32%
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.9
9.7
4.0
4.4
3.6
22.1
21.2
22.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
10.1
10.5
9.6
4.2
4.5
4.0
22.5
21.6
23.4
vs Weaker (22)
10.5
11.3
9.7
3.7
4.4
3.0
21.5
20.7
22.4
% over line
59%
58%
60%
58%
67%
50%
51%
46%
56%
% under line
41%
42%
40%
42%
33%
50%
49%
54%
44%
This opponent (Rotherham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.95
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rotherham or Draw✓ Hit
59.8%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.55
Edge
+0.1%
29%
31%
40%
covers Rotherham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Rotherham or Chesterfield✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
-3.1%
29%
31%
40%
covers Rotherham + Chesterfield
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Chesterfield✗ Miss
70.9%
Avg Implied 67.9% · @ 1.37
Edge
+3.0%
29%
31%
40%
covers Draw + Chesterfield
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rotherham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.7%
@ 1.33-5.0%
Under
35.3%
@ 3.06+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Rotherham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.9%
@ 2.64-7.3%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.44+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Rotherham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 6.46-5.6%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.08+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Rotherham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 15.50-4.0%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Chesterfield over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.8%
@ 1.25-2.5%
Under
28.2%
@ 3.61+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Chesterfield over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.1%
@ 2.26-5.1%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.58+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Chesterfield over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.20-4.3%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.13+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
BetVictor
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Chesterfield over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.08-3.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rotherham, so a minus line means Rotherham give that many goals of a start and Chesterfield receive them. At -1, Rotherham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rotherham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rotherham)Actual: Chesterfield
Rotherham -2
3.4%
@ 14.38-2.9%
Draw -2
8.2%
@ 8.30-2.7%
Chesterfield +2
88.4%
@ 1.09+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Away
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Rotherham)Actual: Draw
Rotherham -1
11.6%
@ 6.15-3.0%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 4.50-2.4%
Chesterfield +1
70.9%
@ 1.37+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.35
Handicap +1 (Rotherham)Actual: Rotherham
Rotherham +1
59.8%
@ 1.57+2.9%
Draw +1
21.6%
@ 3.90-1.3%
Chesterfield -1
18.5%
@ 4.45-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Rotherham)Actual: Rotherham
Rotherham +2
81.5%
@ 1.16+5.4%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 6.08-2.4%
Chesterfield -2
6.4%
@ 9.28-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.10
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rotherham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.40
0.73
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.00
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.20
0.85
0.22
0.56
0.18
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.71
0.57
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.36
0.88
0.50
0.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotherham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
10Bet
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rotherham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Unibet
2.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Rotherham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Rotherham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rotherham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.20
1.20
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.85
0.56
0.89
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.33
0.40
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.25
0.43
0.14
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.64
0.25
0.62
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotherham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rotherham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Rotherham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Rotherham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.2%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.8%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
72.1%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.9%
1.37
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
70.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.35
+5.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rotherham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Tavares50%
Tom Bradshaw33%
Ewan Otoo33%
P. Mullin25%
J. Rafferty0%
D. Hall0%
Ar'Jany Martha0%
Ted Cann0%
K. Spence0%
Brandon Cover0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Sonny Aljofree0%
Jili Buyabu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brandon Cover75%
Jili Buyabu67%
Fábio Tavares25%
Sonny Aljofree25%
P. Mullin0%
J. Rafferty0%
Tom Bradshaw0%
D. Hall0%
Ar'Jany Martha0%
Ted Cann0%
K. Spence0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Ewan Otoo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ar'Jany Martha50%
Ewan Otoo33%
K. Spence25%
P. Mullin0%
J. Rafferty0%
Tom Bradshaw0%
Fábio Tavares0%
D. Hall0%
Ted Cann0%
Brandon Cover0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Sonny Aljofree0%
Jili Buyabu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Tavares25%
P. Mullin0%
J. Rafferty0%
Tom Bradshaw0%
D. Hall0%
Ar'Jany Martha0%
Ted Cann0%
K. Spence0%
Brandon Cover0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Ewan Otoo0%
Sonny Aljofree0%
Jili Buyabu0%
Chesterfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle McFadzean50%
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
J. Simpson25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
Tom Naylor0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. McEachran0%
L. Mandeville0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Lee Bonis0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Koroma50%
L. Mandeville25%
Lee Bonis25%
D. Markanday25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Rotherham's squad is €1m less valuable than Chesterfield's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Rotherham and Chesterfield have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Rotherham and Chesterfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Rotherham and Chesterfield have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Newport County
Exeter
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale