Rotherham faces a tough test at home against York, with the away side's recent form a major storyline. York has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, with a convincing 3-2 win over Bristol Rovers in their last outing. In contrast, Rotherham has struggled, suffering 2 straight defeats, including a 1-2 loss to Cheltenham.
The model predicts an away win for York, with a 49% chance of victory. However, Rotherham still has a 23% chance of winning at home, while a draw is possible in 28% of matches. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability.
Rotherham has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.86 goals and conceding 1.43, particularly against similar opponents. York, on the other hand, has excelled away from home, scoring 1.67 goals and conceding just 0.56 against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 goals (74.7%), Over 1.5 goals (73.4%), and no other picks. Rotherham has a 23% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 49% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, York, fell short in a 1-1 draw that left the model’s prediction of an away win wrong. The match, a continuation of both sides’ recent draws, saw neither side break the deadlock, confirming the model’s call was incorrect. The model had assigned a 44 % chance to the away win, yet the result was a draw. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.2 %, Under 5.5 hit at 95.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.7 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 92.2 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 91.5 %, and Under 4.5 hit at 88.5 %. The game’s total of two goals matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, with a 23 % probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rotherham win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.45
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.57
Dafabet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.26
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
York win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.74
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.82
888Sport
2.80
Bet365
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rotherham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.90
0.73
1.80
0.80
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.22
0.80
2.20
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.76
0.70
1.60
0.64
1.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.90
2.88
1.00
2.00
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.33
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
2.56
0.74
3.07
0.86
2.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotherham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.28+9.0%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 3.41-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.91+9.3%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 1.84-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
@ 3.23+7.3%
Under 3.5
64.0%
@ 1.31-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Under
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
@ 1.69+6.5%
No
38.5%
@ 2.06-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
1xBet
1.69
No
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%@ 5.83+4.4%
1-2
9.2%@ 9.41+4.5%
2-1
7.4%@ 8.65+2.3%
0-1
7.0%@ 8.47+1.7%
0-2
6.8%@ 13.15+3.4%
2-2
6.2%@ 12.18+2.6%
0-0
5.9%@ 9.50+1.2%
1-0
5.4%@ 7.91-0.2%
Rotherham goals ↓
York goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.0%
6.8%
3.8%
1.6%
1
5.4%
12%
9.2%
5.1%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.4%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
3
2.0%
3.4%
2.8%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rotherham goals (down), columns = York goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Rotherham is 0.97 points better than York in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 0.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Rotherham is 0.91 goals better than York in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 0.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Rotherham is 1.61 goals better than York in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rotherham
For 3.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
York
For 6.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rotherham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.7
4.0
4.3
3.7
23.8
23.8
23.9
vs Stronger (13)
9.3
8.9
9.8
4.6
5.1
4.0
22.5
21.6
23.5
vs Similar (37)
9.8
9.9
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.6
24.3
24.8
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
52%
50%
62%
62%
62%
65%
61%
69%
% under line
49%
48%
50%
38%
38%
38%
35%
39%
31%
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.0
-
3.8
3.7
3.8
19.5
19.5
-
vs Stronger (5)
11.0
11.0
-
3.6
4.0
3.0
19.5
19.5
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
3.8
3.6
3.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
-
50%
44%
56%
0%
0%
-
% under line
50%
50%
-
50%
56%
44%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Rotherham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.7%
@ 1.73-3.9%
Under 9.5
50.3%
@ 2.00+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.9%
Under 3.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.6%
Under 21.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rotherham or Draw✓ Hit
50.6%
Avg Implied 66.1% · @ 1.40
Edge
-15.5%
30%
26%
44%
covers Rotherham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Rotherham or York✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.4%
30%
26%
44%
covers Rotherham + York
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Draw or York✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.50
Edge
+15.2%
30%
26%
44%
covers Draw + York
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rotherham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.8%
@ 1.26-10.7%
Under
37.2%
@ 3.50+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
888Sport
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
Unibet
3.55
888Sport
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Rotherham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.0%
@ 2.35-13.7%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.54+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betfair
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Rotherham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 5.26-9.8%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.12+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Rotherham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 13.12-5.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
York over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Under
21.0%
@ 3.23-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.26
Marathonbet
3.26
York over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 2.48+8.8%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.49-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
York over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 5.96+5.0%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.10-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.10
York over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 15.38+1.1%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rotherham, so a minus line means Rotherham give that many goals of a start and York receive them. At -1, Rotherham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rotherham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rotherham)Actual: York
Rotherham -2
2.3%
@ 10.14-6.4%
Draw -2
6.2%
@ 6.47-7.5%
York +2
91.5%
@ 1.14+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Rotherham)Actual: York
Rotherham -1
8.5%
@ 4.78-10.2%
Draw -1
14.2%
@ 4.12-7.5%
York +1
77.2%
@ 1.50+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.95
Away
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Rotherham)Actual: Rotherham
Rotherham +1
50.6%
@ 1.41-12.8%
Draw +1
23.2%
@ 4.39+2.7%
York -1
26.2%
@ 5.56+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Handicap +2 (Rotherham)Actual: Rotherham
Rotherham +2
73.8%
@ 1.11-8.0%
Draw +2
15.4%
@ 7.95+4.1%
York -2
10.8%
@ 13.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rotherham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.97
0.33
0.80
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.00
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.19
0.90
0.20
0.70
0.18
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
1.44
0.50
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
0.37
1.64
0.43
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotherham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Marathonbet
2.84
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.80
William Hil
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rotherham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Rotherham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Rotherham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
York over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
York over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
York over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rotherham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.40
1.00
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.20
1.20
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.86
0.50
0.90
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.50
1.44
0.50
1.29
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
0.37
1.43
0.43
1.31
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotherham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rotherham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotherham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotherham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.2%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
+13.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
77.2%
1.50
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
+15.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
77.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
+17.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
74.0%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
73.8%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
1.38
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+0.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rotherham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Tavares50%
Tom Bradshaw33%
Ewan Otoo33%
P. Mullin25%
J. Rafferty0%
D. Hall0%
Ar'Jany Martha0%
Ted Cann0%
K. Spence0%
Brandon Cover0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Sonny Aljofree0%
Jili Buyabu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brandon Cover75%
Jili Buyabu67%
Fábio Tavares25%
Sonny Aljofree25%
P. Mullin0%
J. Rafferty0%
Tom Bradshaw0%
D. Hall0%
Ar'Jany Martha0%
Ted Cann0%
K. Spence0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Ewan Otoo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ar'Jany Martha50%
Ewan Otoo33%
K. Spence25%
P. Mullin0%
J. Rafferty0%
Tom Bradshaw0%
Fábio Tavares0%
D. Hall0%
Ted Cann0%
Brandon Cover0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Sonny Aljofree0%
Jili Buyabu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Tavares25%
P. Mullin0%
J. Rafferty0%
Tom Bradshaw0%
D. Hall0%
Ar'Jany Martha0%
Ted Cann0%
K. Spence0%
Brandon Cover0%
K. Ngwenya0%
Ewan Otoo0%
Sonny Aljofree0%
Jili Buyabu0%
York
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Newby50%
O. Pearce25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Z. Medley33%
Ryan Fallowfield33%
Alfie McNally33%
M. Williams25%
Ollie Banks0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Joe Felix0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Boyes100%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Newby50%
H. Boyes33%
Joe Grey25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Rotherham's squad is €3m more valuable than York's (€5m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Rotherham's attack is €2m more valuable than York's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Rotherham and York have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Rotherham's defence is €1m more valuable than York's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale