Rudar are tipped to win at home, a 57% chance that the match will finish in their favour, with a 26% draw probability and a 17% chance of a Dravinja victory. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total with a 26% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability, reflecting the balanced attacking output of both sides. Rudar have been prolific at home, averaging 2.3 goals scored and conceding only 0.4 against similar opposition, while Dravinja, on the road, have managed 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Under 5.5 (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2%), Home +2 handicap (94.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.9%), and Under 4.5 (87.4%). Rudar’s recent form shows a loss in their last match, while Dravinja have recovered from three straight defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rudar win
60.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja win
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
2.13
0.87
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
1.33
2.33
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (21)
1.76
0.81
2.45
0.45
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.13
1.60
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
2.50
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.32
1.10
1.20
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-0
11.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
4.5%
Rudar goals ↓
Dravinja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
4.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
11%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.1%
6.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rudar goals (down), columns = Dravinja goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Rudar and Dravinja are level in average points per game (both 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Rudar is 0.47 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Rudar is 0.17 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rudar or Draw
84.3%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Rudar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar or Dravinja
76.0%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Rudar + Dravinja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dravinja
39.6%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Draw + Dravinja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rudar over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rudar, so a minus line means Rudar give that many goals of a start and Dravinja receive them. At -1, Rudar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rudar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rudar)
Rudar -2
17.6%
Draw -2
18.9%
Dravinja +2
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rudar)
Rudar -1
36.5%
Draw -1
23.9%
Dravinja +1
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rudar)
Rudar +1
84.3%
Draw +1
10.4%
Dravinja -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rudar)
Rudar +2
94.7%
Draw +2
4.0%
Dravinja -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.33
1.33
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.33
0.91
0.36
0.90
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.74
0.30
0.80
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.20
0.33
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.55
0.09
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
0.80
0.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Rudar and Dravinja have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Rudar and Dravinja have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Rudar and Dravinja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Rudar and Dravinja have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice