The model predicts a home win in this match between Rudar and Krka in the Slovenia 2nd SNL league. The recent form of both teams suggests a closely contested match, with Rudar coming off a defeat and Krka coming off a draw. Rudar's home form has been decent, scoring an average of 1.36 goals and conceding 0.91, while Krka's away form has been weaker, scoring 1.12 goals and conceding 1.5.
The expected number of goals in this match is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%. Rudar's home scoring and conceding rates are 1.36 and 0.91 goals per match, respectively, against a similar strength opponent. Krka's away scoring and conceding rates are 1.12 and 1.5 goals per match, respectively, against a similar strength opponent.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 75.5%, and Under 3.5 goals with a probability of 72.4%. Rudar is likely to win 45% of the time, the match will end in a draw 28% of the time, and Krka will win 27% of the time.
Results analysis
The win extends Rudar's run of form, coming off a win and having a strong home record. The final score was 3-0, a convincing home win. The model's selection, home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's call was vindicated, as Rudar's home form and strength were evident. The model's selection of home win was the favourite, and it landed. The suggested picks largely came in, with over 1.5 goals hitting and under 3.5 goals also hitting, both with high probabilities of 75.6% and 72.2% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rudar win✓ Hit
46.2%
Avg Implied 47.2% · @ 1.90
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.02
Dafabet
2.01
Unibet
1.96
William Hil
1.91
SBO
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.33
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Pinnacle
3.39
Krka win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.47
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Pinnacle
3.53
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.27
1.80
1.00
1.20
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.12
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.65
0.90
2.20
0.60
1.10
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
0.75
1.81
1.43
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.12
0.50
2.50
1.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.60
0.64
1.55
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
@ 1.24+2.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
@ 3.37-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Under
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Unibet
3.40
Betano
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
@ 1.82-1.2%
Under 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.89+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.90
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Unibet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
@ 2.91-3.5%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.32+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.92
1xBet
2.92
Unibet
2.88
Betano
2.82
Under
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.1%
@ 1.68-0.1%
No
45.9%
@ 1.99+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
No
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.18+6.4%
1-0
9.6%@ 7.05+3.6%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.86+4.0%
2-0
8.4%@ 8.58+3.5%
0-0
8.2%@ 9.79+3.9%
1-2
6.7%@ 11.35+3.0%
0-1
6.6%@ 10.24+2.5%
2-2
5.2%@ 12.91+1.9%
Rudar goals ↓
Krka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.6%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.6%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.3%
4.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rudar goals (down), columns = Krka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Rudar is 0.27 points better than Krka in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Rudar is 0.47 goals better than Krka in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Rudar is 0.40 goals better than Krka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
1.00
1.25
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.30
0.90
0.40
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.50
0.88
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.88
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.65
0.45
0.82
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.93
0.40
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.00
0.75
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.60
1.30
0.20
0.10
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.25
0.94
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.25
0.00
1.75
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.95
0.18
0.73
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+3.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Rudar and Krka have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Rudar and Krka have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Rudar and Krka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Rudar and Krka have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Brežice
Dravinja