The contest between Rudar and Triglav is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 33 %, a draw at 30 %, and an away win at 37 %. The expected total of goals is 2.4, and the most likely total is two, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3 % chance. Rudar, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded, while Triglav, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 3.0 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9 %), Under 5.5 (96.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0 %), Under 4.5 (90.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.8 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (86.5 %). Both teams have recently lost their last match, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rudar win
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Triglav win
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
2.13
0.87
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
1.33
2.33
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (21)
1.76
0.81
2.45
0.45
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Triglav
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.87
2.86
0.93
2.19
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.08
1.40
1.40
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (18)
3.39
0.72
3.67
0.67
3.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.7%
Rudar goals ↓
Triglav goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.7%
6.8%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.8%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.7%
7.8%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rudar goals (down), columns = Triglav goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Rudar is 0.90 points worse than Triglav in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 2.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Rudar is 0.87 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Rudar is 0.37 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rudar or Draw
61.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
38%
covers Rudar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar or Triglav
71.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
38%
covers Rudar + Triglav
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Triglav
67.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Triglav
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rudar over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rudar, so a minus line means Rudar give that many goals of a start and Triglav receive them. At -1, Rudar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rudar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rudar)
Rudar -2
4.9%
Draw -2
9.7%
Triglav +2
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rudar)
Rudar -1
14.7%
Draw -1
18.2%
Triglav +1
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rudar)
Rudar +1
61.6%
Draw +1
20.1%
Triglav -1
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rudar)
Rudar +2
81.6%
Draw +2
11.7%
Triglav -2
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.33
1.33
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.33
0.91
0.36
0.90
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Triglav
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.42
0.80
0.60
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.44
1.33
0.33
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.5%
Under 0.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
Under 1.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.6%
Under 2.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.20
0.33
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.55
0.09
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Triglav
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.71
0.50
1.19
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.28
2.33
0.33
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
Under 0.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.6%
Under 1.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.4%
Under 2.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Rudar and Triglav have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Rudar and Triglav have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Rudar and Triglav have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Rudar and Triglav have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Beltinci
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja