Saburtalo vs Dila Result & Analysis

Saburtalo are the clear favorites, with the model predicting a home win and giving the match a 43% chance of that outcome, a 26% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of a Dila victory. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, which carries a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance, reflecting the tight defensive displays both sides have shown against similarly ranked opponents. Saburtalo’s home form shows they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded, while Dila’s away record is 0.89 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include an 80.9% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a 77.4% chance of Over 2.5 cards, a 77.2% chance of Under 5.5 cards, and a 75.8% chance of Under 11.5 corners. The recent run of three straight defeats for Saburtalo and a draw for Dila set the stage for a cautious, low-scoring encounter.

The upset was immediate: Saburtalo’s home form, still rattled after three straight defeats, could not stop Dila, who were coming off a draw and had a respectable away record. The final score was 0-2, an away win that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick for a home win at 43 percent - wrong. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. The only other suggested pick, Over 1.5 with an 80.9 percent probability, hit as the match produced two goals. All figures are taken from the data and no additional commentary is offered.