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Saburtalo vs Dinamo Batumi Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Vs
35%
29%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The clash between Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost evenly split: a 35% chance for Saburtalo, 29% for a draw and 36% for Dinamo Batumi. The average goal output is 2.6, with the most probable total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 13.8% chance. Saburtalo, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Dinamo Batumi, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 74.5% and Under 3.5 at 73.6%. Each of these picks is presented with its probability, and the edge for the Under 3.5 is noted. The final result of the previous match was a 0-0 draw, with Saburtalo having lost four in a row before this fixture and Dinamo Batumi coming off a three-game winning streak.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Dinamo Batumi, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that shocked the pundits. Saburtalo’s form had been bleak, with four consecutive defeats, yet they held their own, while Dinamo Batumi, riding a three-game winning streak, could not convert the advantage. The model had picked an away win with a 36% probability, but that call was wrong. The suggested picks also missed the mark: Over 1.5 goals, at 74.5%, was not achieved, whereas Under 3.5 goals, at 73.6%, hit its target. The game’s outcome was a clear upset, leaving the model’s predictions largely unfulfilled.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saburtalo win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D01L33D11D31W20W03L30W10WH·TOR08/03A·DIN13/03A·DIL02/04H·SIO10/04H·DIN14/04H·LOK18/04A·TEL23/04A·SAM29/04H·GAG03/05A·TOR08/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.581.082.331.000.831.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.501.172.001.331.001.00
vs Weaker (6)1.671.002.670.670.671.33
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L22D20W10W30W52W30W11D00D30WA·DIL08/03H·SAB13/03A·LOK18/03H·TEL02/04A·SAM10/04H·GAG18/04A·TOR23/04A·SIO29/04A·DIN03/05H·DIL08/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.330.583.000.671.670.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)2.120.623.000.501.250.75
vs Weaker (4)2.750.503.001.002.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-0 ✓
8.7%
0-1
8.4%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
6.2%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Dinamo Batumi goals →
01234
08.7%8.4%6.3%2.8%0.9%
18.4%14%8.2%3.6%1.2%
26.2%8.1%5.3%2.3%0.8%
32.7%3.5%2.3%1.0%0.3%
40.9%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Dinamo Batumi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Samtredia
3.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.22
Dinamo Batumi
2.14
Dila
1.64
Samgurali
1.58
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.31
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.03
Sioni
0.95
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.22
Saburtalo is 0.83 points worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 2.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.42
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.03
Samgurali
1.53
Samtredia
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Dila
1.33
Gagra
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Telavi
0.81
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.78
Saburtalo is 1.00 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 2.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Samtredia
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.81
Dinamo Batumi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Telavi
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Samgurali
1.22
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Saburtalo
1.36
Gagra
1.55
Sioni
1.66
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
2.81
Saburtalo is 0.42 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 0.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (12)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (6)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (12)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

🟨 Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠️ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D00D02L10W10W10W00D00D00DH·TOR08/03A·DIN13/03A·DIL02/04H·SIO10/04H·DIN14/04H·LOK18/04A·TEL23/04A·SAM29/04H·GAG03/05A·TOR08/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.420.830.500.330.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.670.501.000.670.330.33
vs Weaker (6)0.500.330.670.330.330.33
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W10W10W31W20W10W00D10WA·DIL08/03H·SAB13/03A·LOK18/03H·TEL02/04A·SAM10/04H·GAG18/04A·TOR23/04A·SIO29/04A·DIN03/05H·DIL08/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.171.500.330.830.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.000.121.250.250.750.00
vs Weaker (4)1.500.252.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L31W01L21W10W03L30W10WH·TOR08/03A·DIN13/03A·DIL02/04H·SIO10/04H·DIN14/04H·LOK18/04A·TEL23/04A·SAM29/04H·GAG03/05A·TOR08/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.500.500.500.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.830.671.000.670.670.67
vs Weaker (6)1.170.672.000.330.331.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D10W00D20W21W10W01L00D20WA·DIL08/03H·SAB13/03A·LOK18/03H·TEL02/04A·SAM10/04H·GAG18/04A·TOR23/04A·SIO29/04A·DIN03/05H·DIL08/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.421.500.330.830.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.120.501.750.250.500.75
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SAB wins
1
Draws
0
DB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Saburtalo vs Dinamo Batumi · H/A from SAB
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/22ADinamo Batumi Vs SAB2-2

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/22ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAB0-1
03/05/22HSAB Vs Gagra3-0
29/04/22ASamgurali Vs SAB3-0
23/04/22ATelavi Vs SAB0-2
18/04/22HSAB Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-1
14/04/22HSAB Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-1
10/04/22HSAB Vs Sioni3-3
02/04/22ADila Vs SAB1-0
13/03/22ADinamo Batumi Vs SAB2-2
08/03/22HSAB Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-0

Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/22HDB Vs Dila3-0
03/05/22ADinamo Tbilisi Vs DB0-0
29/04/22ASioni Vs DB1-1
23/04/22ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs DB0-3
18/04/22HDB Vs Gagra5-2
10/04/22ASamgurali Vs DB0-3
02/04/22HDB Vs Telavi1-0
18/03/22ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs DB0-2
13/03/22HDB Vs Saburtalo2-2
08/03/22ADila Vs DB2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.75
HomeWDDWW2.33
AwayDLWLW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%67%33%
AVG goals2.673.332.00
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %50%67%33%
Over 3.5 %25%33%17%
Scored1.582.330.83
Conceded1.081.001.17
BTTS42%67%17%
Clean Sheet33%33%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW2.25
HomeWDWWW2.67
AwayWWWDD1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%83%50%
AVG goals2.923.672.17
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %67%83%50%
Over 3.5 %25%50%0%
Scored2.333.001.67
Conceded0.580.670.50
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet67%67%67%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3680
67%
2.2
7329+44
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.00.8
-
2Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3677
64%
2.1
8734+53
3.4
83%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.40.9
-
3DilaDila3659
47%
1.6
4835+13
2.3
67%
53%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.31.0
-
4SamguraliSamgurali3657
42%
1.6
5544+11
2.8
86%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.2
-
5Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3654
42%
1.5
4848+0
2.7
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.31.3
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3647
36%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.41.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3639
22%
1.1
2936-7
1.8
61%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
8GagraGagra3839
26%
1.0
3859-21
2.6
74%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
9SioniSioni3836
21%
0.9
3863-25
2.7
76%
50%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
10Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi368
3%
0.2
28101-73
3.6
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
11SamtrediaSamtredia26
100%
3.0
30+3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.0
-
12SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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