Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi Result & Analysis

Saburtalo’s recent run of four straight defeats has left the home side struggling to find the back of the net, yet their average of 1.14 goals per game at home suggests a modest attacking threat. Dinamo Tbilisi, on the other hand, have been in fine form away, winning four of their last five matches and scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game on the road, while conceding 1.57. The model therefore favours a home win, assigning a 40% probability to that outcome, a 25% chance of a draw and 35% for an away victory. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely total being 3 goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 84.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.6% and Under 11.5 corners at 72.9%.

The upset came early, as Dinamo Tbilisi snatched a 1-2 away win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of a Saburtalo victory at 40%. The prediction was wrong, and the final result shows the away side’s form - four wins in five - trumped the home side’s four-game losing streak. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals with an 84.2% probability, hit, confirming the match’s 3-goal total. The most likely score, 1-1, carried a 11.4% chance, but the actual 1-2 outcome matched the model’s 8.0% chance for that scoreline. The win extends Dinamo’s run, while Saburtalo’s form remains bleak.