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Saburtalo vs Samgurali Result & Analysis

Date: 08/12/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Vs
50%
27%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Saburtalo win✗ Miss
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samgurali win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D43W21W30W10W20W32W10W11D21WH·GAG26/09A·SAM30/09A·TEL05/10H·TOR20/10A·SAM27/10A·DIN01/11H·DIL08/11A·DIN23/11H·KOL27/11A·GAG01/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.231.791.291.941.19
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)2.001.072.571.291.430.86
vs Weaker (14)2.001.361.171.332.621.38
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L34L12L12L33D11D42W10W00D21WA·TOR26/09H·SAB30/09H·DIN05/10A·DIL20/10H·DIN27/10A·KOL01/11H·GAG10/11H·SAM23/11A·TEL27/11H·TOR01/12
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.432.061.501.141.36
vs Stronger (16)1.311.691.672.110.861.14
vs Similar (10)2.101.202.601.001.601.40
vs Weaker (4)1.751.002.500.001.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.9%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.2%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Samgurali goals →
01234
07.9%6.0%3.8%1.3%0.3%
19.9%13%6.2%2.2%0.6%
29.1%9.6%5.1%1.8%0.5%
35.0%5.2%2.8%1.0%0.3%
42.0%2.1%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Samgurali goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo
2.08
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.94
Dila
1.89
Dinamo Batumi
1.53
Rustavi
1.50
Samgurali
1.22
Kolkheti Poti
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.08
Gagra
1.05
Sioni
1.00
Telavi
0.97
Samtredia
0.75
Saburtalo is 0.86 points better than Samgurali in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Saburtalo
2.06
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.61
Dila
1.61
Samgurali
1.42
Kolkheti Poti
1.33
Dinamo Batumi
1.17
Gagra
1.00
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Samtredia
0.92
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.92
Telavi
0.89
Saburtalo is 0.64 goals better than Samgurali in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dila
0.83
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.11
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Telavi
1.18
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.22
Saburtalo
1.28
Samgurali
1.36
Gagra
1.45
Kolkheti Poti
1.61
Samtredia
1.69
Saburtalo is 0.08 goals better than Samgurali in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.36).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SamguraliSamgurali

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (24)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (29)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (15)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (6)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W10W30W00D20W10W00D10W01LH·GAG26/09A·SAM30/09A·TEL05/10H·TOR20/10A·SAM27/10A·DIN01/11H·DIL08/11A·DIN23/11H·KOL27/11A·GAG01/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.930.640.690.62
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (14)1.140.431.570.570.710.29
vs Weaker (14)0.570.930.330.830.751.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L11D01L20W01L12L00D00D11DA·TOR26/09H·SAB30/09H·DIN05/10A·DIL20/10H·DIN27/10A·KOL01/11H·GAG10/11H·SAM23/11A·TEL27/11H·TOR01/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.571.060.560.570.57
vs Stronger (16)0.690.440.890.670.430.14
vs Similar (10)0.800.701.000.600.600.80
vs Weaker (4)1.500.752.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W22D11D00D10W00D22D10W01L20WH·GAG26/09A·SAM30/09A·TEL05/10H·TOR20/10A·SAM27/10A·DIN01/11H·DIL08/11A·DIN23/11H·KOL27/11A·GAG01/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.600.860.641.250.56
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.860.641.000.710.710.57
vs Weaker (14)1.430.430.830.501.880.38
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L22D01L11D13L10W30W10W00D10WA·TOR26/09H·SAB30/09H·DIN05/10A·DIL20/10H·DIN27/10A·KOL01/11H·GAG10/11H·SAM23/11A·TEL27/11H·TOR01/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.871.000.940.570.79
vs Stronger (16)0.621.250.781.440.431.00
vs Similar (10)1.300.501.600.401.000.60
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.500.000.000.50
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
Saburtalo's squad is €3m more valuable than Samgurali's (€6m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Saburtalo's attack is €1m more valuable than Samgurali's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Saburtalo and Samgurali have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
Saburtalo and Samgurali have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
SAB wins
1
Draws
3
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Saburtalo vs Samgurali · H/A from SAB
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/24ASamgurali Vs SAB3-4
01/06/24HSAB Vs Samgurali1-2
15/04/24ASamgurali Vs SAB2-3
23/11/23HSAB Vs Samgurali2-2
17/09/23ASamgurali Vs SAB1-0
24/05/23HSAB Vs Samgurali5-1
09/04/23ASamgurali Vs SAB2-1
01/10/22ASamgurali Vs SAB0-3

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/24AGagra Vs SAB1-2
27/11/24HSAB Vs Kolkheti Poti1-1
23/11/24ADinamo Batumi Vs SAB0-1
08/11/24HSAB Vs Dila3-2
01/11/24ADinamo Tbilisi Vs SAB0-2
27/10/24ASamtredia Vs SAB0-1
20/10/24HSAB Vs Torpedo Kutaisi3-0
05/10/24ATelavi Vs SAB1-2
30/09/24ASamgurali Vs SAB3-4
26/09/24HSAB Vs Gagra1-1

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/24HSAM Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-1
27/11/24ATelavi Vs SAM0-0
23/11/24HSAM Vs Samtredia1-0
10/11/24HSAM Vs Gagra4-2
01/11/24AKolkheti Poti Vs SAM1-1
27/10/24HSAM Vs Dinamo Batumi3-3
20/10/24ADila Vs SAM2-1
05/10/24HSAM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-2
30/09/24HSAM Vs Saburtalo3-4
26/09/24ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAM1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.68
HomeWDWWD1.58
AwayWWWWW1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%42%58%
AVG goals2.982.673.27
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %64%54%73%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.601.541.65
Conceded1.381.121.62
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet30%38%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.24
HomeLDWWW1.58
AwayDLLDD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%46%17%
AVG goals2.903.122.67
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %38%42%33%
Scored1.421.771.04
Conceded1.481.351.62
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet26%31%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SaburtaloSaburtalo3675
64%
2.1
7446+28
3.3
86%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.11.3
-
2Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3670
58%
1.9
5840+18
2.7
69%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.61.1
-
3DilaDila3668
53%
1.9
5830+28
2.4
67%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
4Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3655
42%
1.5
4241+1
2.3
61%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.21.1
-
5SamguraliSamgurali3644
31%
1.2
5149+2
2.8
72%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.4
-
6Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3641
25%
1.1
4858-10
2.9
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
7GagraGagra3840
29%
1.1
3855-17
2.4
76%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.4
-
8Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3639
25%
1.1
3344-11
2.1
67%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3130.91.2
-
9TelaviTelavi3837
24%
1.0
3445-11
2.1
55%
39%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
10SamtrediaSamtredia3627
14%
0.8
3361-28
2.6
75%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
11RustaviRustavi23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
12SioniSioni22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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