Salford are tipped to win at home, a 53% chance that outweighs the 25% draw and 21% away win probabilities. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.1% chance. Salford, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.27 goals scored and 0.93 conceded, while Newport County on the road averages 1.23 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 2% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 6.5 (97.3% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (93.0% with a 3% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.8% with a 6% edge). Salford’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while Newport County has just drawn, setting the stage for a tight contest.
Results analysis
The match saw Salford extend their recent run with a 2-1 win over Newport County, a result that matched the model’s prediction of a home victory. The model had named Home win as the favourite with a 53% probability, and this call proved correct. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the anticipated outcome. Every suggested selection performed as expected: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.0%, Under 5.5 at 93.0%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.8%. All selections were settled and the model’s choices were largely accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Salford win✓ Hit
53.1%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.56
Edge
-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Dafabet
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.13
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.27
Superbet
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
Newport County win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 17.6% · @ 5.30
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Dafabet
5.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Salford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.13
1.27
0.93
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.14
1.27
0.93
0.85
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.33
1.20
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.65
1.15
1.31
1.23
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
@ 1.19+0.4%
Under 1.5
21.1%
@ 4.34-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.64
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.63-3.1%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.20+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
SBO
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 2.53-4.7%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.47+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.68+0.6%
No
44.2%
@ 2.06-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
No
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 7.48+6.1%
2-1 ✓
9.8%@ 7.41+3.8%
2-0
9.2%@ 7.75+3.4%
1-0
9.2%@ 7.61+3.3%
0-0
6.8%@ 12.67+3.3%
1-2
5.9%@ 15.23+2.9%
3-1
5.9%@ 10.74+1.7%
3-0
5.5%@ 11.03+1.4%
Salford goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.2%
12%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.5%
5.9%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.4%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Salford goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Salford is 0.78 points better than Newport County in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Salford is 0.26 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Salford is 0.51 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Salford is 4.0 percentage points better than Newport County in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Salford
For 5.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 5.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Salford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.3
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.7
24.4
24.9
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
vs Similar (47)
9.4
9.8
9.1
3.8
3.6
4.0
25.1
24.6
25.6
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
21.0
21.0
21.0
% over line
51%
54%
48%
44%
36%
52%
69%
67%
72%
% under line
49%
46%
52%
56%
64%
48%
31%
33%
28%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.9
9.6
3.9
4.2
3.6
23.1
23.0
23.2
vs Stronger (5)
9.4
10.0
9.0
3.8
3.0
4.3
22.8
20.0
24.7
vs Similar (44)
9.7
9.6
9.7
3.9
4.2
3.5
23.1
23.2
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
61%
62%
60%
54%
68%
40%
67%
67%
68%
% under line
39%
38%
40%
46%
32%
60%
33%
33%
32%
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.9%
@ 1.67-3.7%
Under 9.5
48.1%
@ 2.09+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.5%
Under 21.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Salford or Draw✓ Hit
78.6%
Avg Implied 82.0% · @ 1.14
Edge
-3.4%
53%
25%
21%
covers Salford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Salford or Newport County✓ Hit
74.6%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.19
Edge
-3.5%
53%
25%
21%
covers Salford + Newport County
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Draw or Newport County✗ Miss
46.9%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.33
Edge
+7.0%
53%
25%
21%
covers Draw + Newport County
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.40
SBO
2.39
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Salford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.3%
@ 1.09-2.0%
Under
16.7%
@ 6.32+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
1xBet
6.00
Salford over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.4%
@ 1.55-6.5%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.32+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Salford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 2.74-7.3%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.41+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Salford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.60-6.0%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Betano
5.10
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Newport County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.7%
@ 1.49+3.2%
Under
34.3%
@ 2.48-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Newport County over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.9%
@ 3.40+1.6%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.28-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.35
Under
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Newport County over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 8.90-1.1%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.04+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.70
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Newport County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 22.50-1.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Salford, so a minus line means Salford give that many goals of a start and Newport County receive them. At -1, Salford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Salford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Salford)Actual: Newport County
Salford -2
13.8%
@ 4.41-6.3%
Draw -2
16.6%
@ 4.42-3.5%
Newport County +2
69.5%
@ 1.49+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.45
Handicap -1 (Salford)Actual: Draw
Salford -1
30.5%
@ 2.43-6.2%
Draw -1
22.7%
@ 3.55-2.5%
Newport County +1
46.9%
@ 2.35+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.42
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Handicap +1 (Salford)Actual: Salford
Salford +1
78.6%
@ 1.13+0.1%
Draw +1
13.1%
@ 6.51-0.5%
Newport County -1
8.3%
@ 11.26+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.30
Handicap +2 (Salford)Actual: Salford
Salford +2
91.7%
@ 1.03-0.4%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 17.00+0.4%
Newport County -2
2.4%
@ 41.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Salford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.40
0.13
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.43
0.40
0.13
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.53
0.33
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.54
0.46
0.38
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.29-2.6%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 3.35+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 2.35-5.9%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.53+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.44
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Under
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.34-3.4%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.12+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Salford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.2%
@ 1.57-7.0%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.28+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.22
Salford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 3.71-6.7%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.23+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
Betano
3.80
1xBet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.55
Under
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Salford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 9.36-5.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.8%
@ 2.55-0.6%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.46+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.63
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 8.93-2.4%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.10
Superbet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 38.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Salford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.71
0.87
0.80
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
0.80
0.87
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.12
0.69
0.92
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.7%
@ 1.17+0.3%
Under 0.5
20.3%
@ 4.54-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.1%
@ 1.85-5.3%
Under 1.5
54.9%
@ 1.87+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 3.56-6.1%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.25+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.52
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Salford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.6%
@ 1.38-7.7%
Under
40.4%
@ 2.84+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.90
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Salford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.3%
@ 2.78-10.1%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.39+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Salford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 6.58-6.8%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.07+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.2%
@ 2.11+2.2%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.66-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 6.68-1.1%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.08+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 20.33-2.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.8%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.6%
1.14
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.6%
1.13
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.39
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
+10.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.6%
1.19
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.4%
1.41
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.8%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.1%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
-1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Salford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. N’Mai25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
Ryan Graydon0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
K. Cesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Sarpong-Wiredu33%
Ryan Graydon33%
A. Oluwo25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
K. Cesay0%
K. N’Mai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Cesay25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
Ryan Graydon0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
K. N’Mai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Langstaff50%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu33%
Ryan Graydon33%
Will Aimson25%
J. Powell25%
Luke Molyneux25%
K. Cesay25%
K. N’Mai25%
Jorge Grant0%
W. Norris0%
D. Udoh0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
Newport County
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Salford's squad is €6m more valuable than Newport County's (€8m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Salford's attack is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Salford's midfield is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Salford's defence is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale