The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home win 33%, draw 27%, away win 40%. The expected total goals hover at 3.0, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Samgurali, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Dinamo Tbilisi, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 2.33 and concedes 1.67. The model’s selection list contains only one pick: Over 1.5, with an 80.8% chance of hitting. The recent form adds nuance: Samgurali come off a draw, Dinamo Tbilisi a win, but the overall balance remains tight.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Dinamo Tbilisi, fell short in a 3-1 home win for Samgurali, a result that surprised the model’s prediction. Samgurali, coming off a draw, extended their mixed run with a victory, while Dinamo, after a win, saw their winning streak halted. The model had called an away win with a 40% probability, but this call was wrong. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 80.8% probability, as the match produced four goals. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home side’s triumph, contradicting the model’s favourite and showcasing the unpredictability of the league.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samgurali win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Samgurali
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.67
1.36
1.29
0.94
2.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
2.00
1.12
1.25
0.78
2.67
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.75
0.00
3.00
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.23
2.07
1.00
1.93
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.28
2.11
1.22
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (12)
2.17
1.17
2.00
0.67
2.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
6.1%
Samgurali goals ↓
Dinamo Tbilisi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.9%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.1%
12%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
7.9%
6.2%
3.2%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samgurali goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saburtalo
2.08
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.94
Dila
1.89
Dinamo Batumi
1.53
Rustavi
1.50
Samgurali
1.22
Kolkheti Poti
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.08
Gagra
1.05
Sioni
1.00
Telavi
0.97
Samtredia
0.75
Samgurali is 0.14 points better than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saburtalo
2.06
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.61
Dila
1.61
Samgurali
1.42
Kolkheti Poti
1.33
Dinamo Batumi
1.17
Gagra
1.00
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Samtredia
0.92
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.92
Telavi
0.89
Samgurali is 0.50 goals better than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dila
0.83
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.11
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Telavi
1.18
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.22
Saburtalo
1.28
Samgurali
1.36
Gagra
1.45
Kolkheti Poti
1.61
Samtredia
1.69
Samgurali is 0.14 goals worse than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Samgurali
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Tbilisi
For 5.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Samgurali
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
11.0
4.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
25.0
25.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
7.8
11.0
4.5
0.4
0.1
0.7
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
100%
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Samgurali
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.64
0.57
0.19
1.19
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.88
0.62
0.50
0.22
1.22
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
0.80
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.40
0.40
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.61
1.78
0.44
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.67
0.83
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Samgurali
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.71
0.71
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.75
0.56
1.44
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.33
1.20
0.60
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.00
1.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
0.67
0.60
1.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.67
0.33
0.78
1.56
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
Samgurali's squad is €4m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Samgurali's attack is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Samgurali and Dinamo Tbilisi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
Samgurali's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€1m vs €3m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila
Dinamo Batumi
Kolkheti Poti
Gagra
Telavi
Samtredia
Rustavi
Sioni