Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Result & Analysis

The clash between Samgurali and Dinamo Tbilisi is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for both sides. The probability split is 41% for Samgurali, 28% for a draw, and 31% for Dinamo. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Samgurali, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Dinamo, on the road against a weaker side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals at 77.5% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.0%. The model’s selection list also includes the home win, draw, and away win probabilities, all expressed as percentages. The match remains finely balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.

The upset came as Dinamo Tbilisi edged Samgurali 2-1, overturning the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. The match finished 1-2, an away victory that matched the model’s 31% chance of an away win. The model’s suggested picks all hit: Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.5% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, at 70%. Samgurali, coming off a draw, had a 25% chance of the most likely 2-goal total, but Dinamo’s 1-2 score fell within the model’s 25% most probable total of 2 goals. The result shows the model’s predictions were largely accurate except for the favourite.