Santa Clara are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model favouring a home win with a 46% chance, followed by a 30% draw and a 23% chance for Rio Ave. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14%. Santa Clara’s home form shows they average 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against similar opposition, while Rio Ave’s away record is 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Under 5.5 at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3%. Santa Clara’s recent draw against Alverca and Rio Ave’s heavy defeat to Sporting CP set the stage for a cautious, low-scoring contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Santa Clara win
46.6%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.78
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
SBO
1.80
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.44
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.62
Pinnacle
3.53
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Rio Ave win
23.6%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.66
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.98
1xBet
4.94
10Bet
4.90
Betano
4.90
Dafabet
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Santa Clara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.25
1.06
1.00
1.29
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.20
1.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.18
0.95
1.27
0.82
1.09
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.70
0.73
1.93
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
2.86
0.25
3.00
0.00
2.67
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.35
0.91
1.55
1.25
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.37+0.1%
Under 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.93-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.17-3.0%
Under 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.67+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.2%
@ 3.93-3.6%
Under 3.5
79.8%
@ 1.22+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.02
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
46.3%
@ 1.99-0.2%
No
53.7%
@ 1.73+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
No
Unibet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.26+6.9%
1-0
12.6%@ 5.58+4.7%
0-0
11.2%@ 7.81+5.6%
2-0
9.6%@ 7.28+3.5%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.94+3.2%
0-1
7.9%@ 9.99+3.4%
1-2
5.8%@ 14.09+2.7%
3-0
4.4%@ 12.99+1.0%
Santa Clara goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.6%
8.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.4%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Clara goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Santa Clara and Rio Ave are level in average points per game (both 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Santa Clara is 0.09 goals worse than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Santa Clara is 0.47 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Santa Clara is 1.4 percentage points better than Rio Ave in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Santa Clara
For 3.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
For 3.9 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.1 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Santa Clara
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.2
5.0
5.8
4.2
30.1
32.5
27.6
vs Stronger (10)
9.6
9.2
10.0
6.6
9.2
4.0
29.1
32.6
25.6
vs Similar (40)
9.0
9.1
9.0
4.7
5.0
4.3
30.4
32.4
28.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
45%
52%
72%
72%
72%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
51%
55%
48%
28%
28%
28%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.1
4.8
4.7
4.9
26.8
25.9
27.8
vs Stronger (13)
10.8
10.4
11.4
3.7
3.9
3.4
23.3
22.6
24.4
vs Similar (36)
10.3
11.0
9.7
5.2
5.1
5.2
28.1
27.5
28.6
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
11.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
63%
72%
54%
60%
60%
60%
78%
68%
88%
% under line
37%
28%
46%
40%
40%
40%
22%
32%
12%
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.0%
@ 2.09-2.4%
Under 9.5
58.0%
@ 1.67+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.02
Unibet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.7%
@ 1.41+11.8%
Under 3.5
24.3%
@ 2.50-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.41
Under
Superbet
2.50
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.4%
Under 21.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Santa Clara or Draw
72.5%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.18
Edge
-6.9%
47%
30%
24%
covers Santa Clara + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Santa Clara or Rio Ave
68.3%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-5.1%
47%
30%
24%
covers Santa Clara + Rio Ave
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Rio Ave
59.1%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.98
Edge
+12.0%
47%
30%
24%
covers Draw + Rio Ave
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
SBO
2.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
@ 1.20-6.8%
Under
29.5%
@ 4.09+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.22
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Santa Clara over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
@ 2.01-12.1%
Under
65.6%
@ 1.75+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Santa Clara over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
@ 4.20-9.7%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.20+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Santa Clara over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
@ 9.15-6.7%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.60
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Rio Ave over/under 0.5
Over
61.5%
@ 1.64+4.8%
Under
38.5%
@ 2.14-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Rio Ave over/under 1.5
Over
24.7%
@ 4.18+2.4%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.20-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.34
1xBet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Rio Ave over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
@ 11.71-0.9%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Rio Ave over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
@ 44.50-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Santa Clara, so a minus line means Santa Clara give that many goals of a start and Rio Ave receive them. At -1, Santa Clara must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Santa Clara win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Santa Clara)
Santa Clara -2
6.3%
@ 6.68-7.1%
Draw -2
12.3%
@ 4.90-5.9%
Rio Ave +2
81.5%
@ 1.30+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
Away
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Handicap -1 (Santa Clara)
Santa Clara -1
18.5%
@ 3.17-9.6%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.38-4.1%
Rio Ave +1
59.1%
@ 1.97+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Draw
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Handicap +1 (Santa Clara)
Santa Clara +1
72.5%
@ 1.18-2.9%
Draw +1
17.2%
@ 5.60+1.3%
Rio Ave -1
10.3%
@ 10.18+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Superbet
9.90
Unibet
9.50
Handicap +2 (Santa Clara)
Santa Clara +2
89.7%
@ 1.03-0.9%
Draw +2
7.5%
@ 14.00+0.8%
Rio Ave -2
2.8%
@ 35.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.45
0.73
0.36
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.33
1.20
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.71
0.25
2.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.61
0.36
0.82
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.8%
@ 1.44+2.2%
Under 0.5
33.2%
@ 2.63-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
William Hil
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.1%
@ 3.10+0.0%
Under 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.33-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 7.90-1.3%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.0%
@ 1.84+0.6%
Under
49.0%
@ 1.87-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.7%
@ 5.21-1.0%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.12+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
@ 13.50-3.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.9%
@ 2.86+2.5%
Under
65.1%
@ 1.37-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.88
Superbet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 10.75-1.4%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
@ 50.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.50
0.55
0.45
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.40
0.73
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.14
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.74
0.55
0.73
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.29+3.8%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 3.36-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.5%
@ 2.34-2.3%
Under 1.5
62.5%
@ 1.54+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.32
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 5.27-3.2%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.13+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.1%
@ 1.61+1.2%
Under
40.9%
@ 2.21-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.15
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.5%
@ 3.85-2.5%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.21+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
@ 10.25-4.8%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.8%
@ 2.39+1.0%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.51-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Under
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.7%
@ 8.20-1.5%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.60
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 32.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+6.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.8%
Under 4.5
93.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
1.03
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.5%
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-0.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+1.3%
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+9.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+3.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+1.0%
Over 23.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
+13.0%
Under 3.5
79.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+3.6%
Under 11.5 corners
79.8%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.21
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+2.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.29
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+3.8%
Over 3.5 cards
75.7%
1.41
Superbet
1.41
-
-
-
-
+11.8%
Away under 1.5 goals
75.3%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
-2.4%
Home or Draw
72.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
-6.9%
Home +1 handicap
72.5%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-2.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
70.5%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
-6.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Santa Clara
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Lopes50%
Daniel Borges33%
Emanuel Fernandes33%
Guilherme Romão25%
Pedro Pacheco25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Calila25%
Welinton Torrao25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
Rio Ave
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andreas Ndoj33%
Nelson Abbey33%
Georgios Liavas25%
Tamás Nikitscher25%
Dario Špikić0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Bezerra25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Santa Clara's squad is €10m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€27m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Santa Clara's attack is €1m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€9m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Santa Clara's midfield is €2m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€6m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Santa Clara's defence is €9m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€12m vs €21m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia