This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.43
0.42
1.75
1.27
3.18
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.91
0.20
1.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (4)
1.50
2.50
0.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
3.12
0.60
2.40
1.67
4.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.7%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
5.2%
Səbail goals ↓
Şimal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.1%
10%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.6%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.7%
7.0%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.5%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Şimal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Səbail is 1.03 points better than Şimal in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Səbail is 0.81 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Səbail is 1.44 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Səbail
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.41
0.29
0.54
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.00
0.60
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.40
0.67
0.22
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.04
0.25
0.67
0.36
1.45
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.82
0.20
0.40
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.25
0.20
0.80
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
26% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Səbail
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.65
0.82
0.69
0.54
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.40
0.60
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
0.78
1.00
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
1.39
0.17
1.08
0.91
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.09
0.00
0.60
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.88
0.40
1.60
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
26% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Safa Baku
Mingəçevir
Baku Sportinq
Şahdağ
MOIK
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
Difai Ağsu
Qaradağ Lökbatan