Səbail are tipped to win, with a 45% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 30% for Şimal. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total goals hover around 3.1. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% probability, while the most common total of goals is two, at 22%. Səbail’s home form shows they average 1.55 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly strong opponents, whereas Şimal, playing away, averages 1.67 goals scored but concedes 3.33 against the same tier. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Under 5.5 (90.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.9%), Home +2 handicap (86.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.6%) and Over 1.5 (83.2%). Səbail’s recent run of LDWWW follows a loss to Mingəçevir, while Şimal comes off a two-game winning streak, beating Qaradağ Lökbatan 2-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Səbail win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şimal win
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Səbail
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.62
0.81
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.67
1.22
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.78
2.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.13
0.59
1.53
1.23
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.43
0.62
0.88
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.50
0.33
1.67
1.67
3.33
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
2.90
0.67
2.33
2.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
Səbail goals ↓
Şimal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.9%
4.2%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.5%
12%
7.3%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.2%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.9%
5.4%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Şimal goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Səbail is 1.03 points better than Şimal in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Səbail is 0.81 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Səbail is 1.44 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Səbail or Draw
70.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Səbail + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail or Şimal
74.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Səbail + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şimal
54.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Draw + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Səbail over/under 0.5
Over
82.7%
Under
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Səbail, so a minus line means Səbail give that many goals of a start and Şimal receive them. At -1, Səbail must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Səbail win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Səbail)
Səbail -2
10.8%
Draw -2
13.9%
Şimal +2
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Səbail)
Səbail -1
24.8%
Draw -1
20.3%
Şimal +1
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Səbail)
Səbail +1
70.4%
Draw +1
15.9%
Şimal -1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Səbail)
Səbail +2
86.3%
Draw +2
8.8%
Şimal -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Səbail
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.69
0.12
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.27
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.35
0.53
0.31
1.31
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.57
0.38
0.25
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
1.20
0.33
0.83
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Səbail
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.69
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.27
0.24
1.00
0.92
1.62
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.86
0.25
0.62
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.70
0.33
1.50
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
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Karvan
Şahdağ
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
MOIK
Baku Sportinq