SC Braga are the clear favourites, with a 59% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of Guimaraes winning. The model predicts an average of 2.8 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5% probability. Braga’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 2.43 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded, while Guimaraes, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 78.7% chance. The final score of the match was 1-2, an away win. Braga’s recent run of WDWDD and an unbeaten streak in their last five, contrasted with Guimaraes’ LWLLL and a recent defeat, underline the expected advantage for the hosts.
Results analysis
SC Braga’s unbeaten run in their last five games ended in a shock 1-2 defeat to Guimaraes, a side that had just suffered a loss. The pre-match favourite was a home win, with a 59% chance, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 78.7%, hit, as the match saw three goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise, and the actual result was an away win. The match confirmed that the home side’s form did not translate into victory, while the visitors capitalised on their momentum.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SC Braga win✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes win✓ Hit
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.13
2.31
1.06
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.33
1.50
2.50
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
1.75
0.83
2.43
0.86
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
1.64
1.36
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.86
0.75
1.50
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (4)
2.00
0.75
4.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
1.32
1.78
1.33
1.20
1.30
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-0
10.5%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
6.3%
1-2 ✓
4.9%
SC Braga goals ↓
Guimaraes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.4%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1
10%
11%
4.9%
1.5%
0.4%
2
11%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
6.7%
6.3%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Braga goals (down), columns = Guimaraes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.41
FC Porto
2.24
Sporting CP
2.06
Guimaraes
1.82
SC Braga
1.59
Maritimo
1.47
Rio Ave
1.44
Feirense
1.41
Boavista
1.26
Chaves
1.12
Estoril
1.12
Setubal
1.12
Belenenses
1.06
Pacos Ferreira
1.06
Moreirense
0.97
Tondela
0.94
Arouca
0.94
Nacional
0.62
SC Braga is 0.24 points worse than Guimaraes in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.12
FC Porto
2.09
Sporting CP
2.00
SC Braga
1.50
Guimaraes
1.47
Rio Ave
1.21
Estoril
1.06
Chaves
1.03
Maritimo
1.00
Arouca
0.97
Moreirense
0.97
Boavista
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Setubal
0.88
Tondela
0.85
Belenenses
0.79
Nacional
0.65
SC Braga is 0.03 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benfica
0.53
FC Porto
0.56
Maritimo
0.94
SC Braga
1.06
Boavista
1.06
Sporting CP
1.06
Rio Ave
1.15
Guimaraes
1.15
Setubal
1.15
Chaves
1.24
Estoril
1.24
Belenenses
1.32
Feirense
1.32
Pacos Ferreira
1.32
Moreirense
1.41
Tondela
1.53
Arouca
1.68
Nacional
1.71
SC Braga is 0.09 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Braga
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Guimaraes
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.81
0.56
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
0.79
0.42
0.93
0.50
0.60
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.57
0.71
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.25
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.42
0.78
0.44
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.42
1.50
0.36
0.20
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.07
0.64
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.89
1.00
0.89
0.40
0.90
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Braga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Guimaraes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu25%
Alioune Ndoye25%
Gustavo Silva25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Tony Strata0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Rivas50%
Gustavo Silva50%
Miguel Nogueira50%
Gonçalo Nogueira25%
Thiago Balieiro25%
Tony Strata25%
Oumar Camara25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Nogueira50%
Tony Strata25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Oumar Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alioune Ndoye75%
Gustavo Silva50%
Samu25%
Tony Strata25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
ARO (25)
€28m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
SC Braga's squad is €119m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€165m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
ARO (11)
€11m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
SC Braga's attack is €19m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€41m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
SC Braga's midfield is €44m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€56m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
SC Braga's defence is €56m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€68m vs €12m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Maritimo
Rio Ave
Feirense
Boavista
Estoril
Chaves
Pacos Ferreira
Belenenses
Moreirense
Tondela
Arouca
Nacional