This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.43
1.47
1.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.64
1.20
1.60
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.39
1.33
1.60
1.90
1.12
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-0
11.4%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.5%
SC Braga goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.2%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Braga goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Anadia
2.33
Santa Clara
2.33
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Leixoes
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Operário
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Farense
2.00
Cinfães
1.75
Brito
1.75
Lusitânia
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Academica
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Rio Ave
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Estoril
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
SC Braga is 2.25 points better than Nacional in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Anadia
2.67
Alverca
2.67
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Farense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
FC Porto
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.27
Vila Meã
1.27
Portalegrense
1.27
Florgrade
1.27
Correlhã
1.27
Vitória de Sernache
1.27
Nazarenos
1.27
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.27
Valenciano
1.27
Castro Daire
1.27
Rebordelo
1.27
Espinho
1.27
Uniao Nogueirense
1.27
Naval 1893
1.27
Portimonense B
1.27
AD Fornos Algodres
1.27
Resende
1.27
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.27
Silves
1.27
Vidago
1.27
Vila Caíz
1.27
Charneca Caparica
1.27
Oriental Lisboa
1.27
Angrense
1.27
Ançã
1.27
Sourense
1.27
Celoricense
1.27
AD Portomosense
1.27
Alcochetense
1.27
Fayal
1.27
Gouveia
1.27
Samora Correir
1.27
Estrela Calheta
1.27
Ribeira Brava
1.27
Aparecida GO
1.27
Mirandela
1.27
SC Celoricense
1.27
Almodôvar
1.27
Mosteirense
1.27
Águias do Moradal
1.27
Urzelinense
1.27
Celeirós
1.27
Quarteirense
1.27
AR São Martinho
1.27
Carregal
1.27
Juventude Évora
1.27
Pontassolense
1.27
Fazendense
1.27
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
GIL Vicente
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Leixoes
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Tondela
1.00
Academica
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Estoril
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
SC Braga is 0.50 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
Estoril
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
FC Serpa
0.50
Atlético CP
0.50
Brito
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Academica
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
FC Porto
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Torreense
1.00
Machico
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Alverca
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.79
Vila Meã
1.79
Portalegrense
1.79
Florgrade
1.79
Correlhã
1.79
Vitória de Sernache
1.79
Nazarenos
1.79
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.79
Valenciano
1.79
Castro Daire
1.79
Rebordelo
1.79
Espinho
1.79
Uniao Nogueirense
1.79
Naval 1893
1.79
Portimonense B
1.79
AD Fornos Algodres
1.79
Resende
1.79
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.79
Silves
1.79
Vidago
1.79
Vila Caíz
1.79
Charneca Caparica
1.79
Oriental Lisboa
1.79
Angrense
1.79
Ançã
1.79
Sourense
1.79
Celoricense
1.79
AD Portomosense
1.79
Alcochetense
1.79
Fayal
1.79
Gouveia
1.79
Samora Correir
1.79
Estrela Calheta
1.79
Ribeira Brava
1.79
Aparecida GO
1.79
Mirandela
1.79
SC Celoricense
1.79
Almodôvar
1.79
Mosteirense
1.79
Águias do Moradal
1.79
Urzelinense
1.79
Celeirós
1.79
Quarteirense
1.79
AR São Martinho
1.79
Carregal
1.79
Juventude Évora
1.79
Pontassolense
1.79
Fazendense
1.79
Amarante
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Leça
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Farense
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
SC Braga is 1.25 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Braga
For 5.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
For 3.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.5
8.6
4.2
3.6
4.9
25.5
23.9
27.2
vs Stronger (7)
7.8
11.0
6.2
6.4
7.0
6.2
27.2
26.5
27.5
vs Similar (9)
9.9
8.8
11.3
4.3
2.2
7.0
23.9
22.8
25.3
vs Weaker (34)
9.1
9.6
8.6
3.8
3.6
3.9
25.6
23.9
27.6
% over line
44%
50%
38%
56%
52%
60%
70%
55%
86%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
44%
48%
40%
30%
45%
14%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.3
10.4
5.0
5.6
4.4
27.4
27.5
27.3
vs Stronger (17)
10.5
11.2
9.8
4.9
5.8
4.0
24.9
25.5
24.4
vs Similar (32)
10.3
9.7
10.8
5.2
5.5
4.9
28.8
28.7
28.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
53%
50%
57%
66%
75%
58%
84%
82%
87%
% under line
47%
50%
43%
34%
25%
42%
16%
18%
13%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Portimonense
12.2
Penafiel
11.6
Oliveirense
11.5
União de Leiria
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Torreense
10.8
Farense
10.7
Vizela
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Chaves
10.5
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.2
Arouca
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Guimaraes
9.9
Feirense
9.7
Benfica
9.6
Estrela
9.6
Leixoes
9.5
Felgueiras 1932
9.5
Sporting CP
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Casa Pia
9.3
Tondela
9.2
Maritimo
9.1
FC Porto
9.1
SC Braga
9.0
Estoril
8.9
AVS
8.7
Pacos Ferreira
8.7
GIL Vicente
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Moreirense
8.3
Santa Clara
8.2
Alverca
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.4
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
FC Porto
6.0
Sporting CP
5.8
Oliveirense
5.7
Leixoes
5.7
Famalicao
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
União de Leiria
5.7
Vizela
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Chaves
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.5
Torreense
5.5
Guimaraes
5.5
Maritimo
5.5
Arouca
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
AVS
5.4
Estrela
5.3
Feirense
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.2
Penafiel
5.1
Nacional
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Academico Viseu
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Estoril
4.5
Mafra
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.2
Estrela
30.7
Santa Clara
29.9
Moreirense
29.7
Vilaverdense
28.5
Estoril
28.4
Farense
28.2
SC Covilha
28.2
Guimaraes
28.2
Rio Ave
28.2
GIL Vicente
27.7
Casa Pia
27.7
AVS
27.6
Arouca
27.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
27.5
Nacional
27.4
Sporting CP
26.5
FC Porto
26.4
SC Braga
25.5
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica
24.5
Tondela
20.2
Leixoes
18.2
Pacos Ferreira
18.0
Portimonense
17.3
Oliveirense
16.6
Academico Viseu
16.4
União de Leiria
16.4
Vizela
15.9
Alverca
15.5
Feirense
15.4
Maritimo
15.0
Mafra
14.9
Chaves
14.3
Penafiel
13.4
Felgueiras 1932
13.0
Torreense
10.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.6%
Under 9.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.3%
Under 21.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SC Braga or Draw✓ Hit
84.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers SC Braga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Braga or Nacional✓ Hit
76.0%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers SC Braga + Nacional
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nacional✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Draw + Nacional
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SC Braga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SC Braga, so a minus line means SC Braga give that many goals of a start and Nacional receive them. At -1, SC Braga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SC Braga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SC Braga)Actual: Draw
SC Braga -2
17.5%
Draw -2
19.0%
Nacional +2
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (SC Braga)Actual: SC Braga
SC Braga -1
36.4%
Draw -1
23.9%
Nacional +1
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (SC Braga)Actual: SC Braga
SC Braga +1
84.4%
Draw +1
10.4%
Nacional -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (SC Braga)Actual: SC Braga
SC Braga +2
94.8%
Draw +2
4.0%
Nacional -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.19
0.44
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.35
0.60
1.45
0.55
1.22
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.73
0.87
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.72
0.70
1.10
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.81
0.44
0.71
0.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.20
0.82
0.27
0.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.73
0.93
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.91
0.40
1.20
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.61
0.90
0.80
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Braga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rodrigo Zalazar39%
Ricardo Horta39%
Pau Víctor27%
Roger Fernandes25%
Fran Navarro21%
Mario Dorgeles14%
Vítor Carvalho12%
Amine El Ouazzani11%
Gabriel Martínez10%
Florian Grillitsch10%
Demir Ege Tıknaz7%
Gustaf Lagerbielke5%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby5%
Diego Rodrigues3%
João Moutinho2%
Victor Gómez2%
Sikou Niakaté0%
Paulo Oliveira0%
Adrian Leon Barišić0%
Leonardo Lelo0%
Bright Arrey-Mbi0%
Lukáš Horníček0%
Yanis da Rocha0%
Gabriel Moscardo0%
Sandro Vidigal0%
Luís Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luís Pinto33%
Vítor Carvalho29%
Roger Fernandes25%
Sandro Vidigal25%
Sikou Niakaté22%
Gabriel Moscardo22%
Gustaf Lagerbielke21%
Demir Ege Tıknaz21%
Gabriel Martínez21%
Rodrigo Zalazar18%
Florian Grillitsch17%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby17%
Yanis da Rocha17%
Victor Gómez16%
Pau Víctor16%
Paulo Oliveira14%
João Moutinho13%
Ricardo Horta12%
Bright Arrey-Mbi11%
Fran Navarro10%
Lukáš Horníček9%
Diego Rodrigues7%
Amine El Ouazzani6%
Leonardo Lelo5%
Adrian Leon Barišić0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luís Pinto33%
Roger Fernandes25%
Victor Gómez18%
Rodrigo Zalazar16%
Ricardo Horta15%
Pau Víctor11%
Leonardo Lelo11%
Diego Rodrigues10%
Demir Ege Tıknaz7%
Florian Grillitsch7%
Gabriel Martínez5%
Vítor Carvalho4%
Mario Dorgeles4%
Fran Navarro2%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby2%
João Moutinho2%
Sikou Niakaté0%
Paulo Oliveira0%
Adrian Leon Barišić0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Bright Arrey-Mbi0%
Amine El Ouazzani0%
Lukáš Horníček0%
Yanis da Rocha0%
Gabriel Moscardo0%
Sandro Vidigal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Roger Fernandes50%
Rodrigo Zalazar18%
Ricardo Horta15%
Amine El Ouazzani11%
Mario Dorgeles11%
Pau Víctor9%
Gabriel Martínez5%
Fran Navarro5%
Gustaf Lagerbielke5%
João Moutinho2%
Victor Gómez2%
Florian Grillitsch0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Sikou Niakaté0%
Paulo Oliveira0%
Adrian Leon Barišić0%
Leonardo Lelo0%
Bright Arrey-Mbi0%
Lukáš Horníček0%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Yanis da Rocha0%
Gabriel Moscardo0%
Sandro Vidigal0%
Luís Pinto0%
Nacional
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jesús Ramírez42%
Ze Vitor13%
Paulinho Bóia12%
Léo Santos10%
Gabriel Veron8%
Miguel Baeza7%
Filipe Soares6%
Alan Núñez5%
Witiness Quembo4%
José Gomes4%
Chiheb Labidi4%
Liziero0%
Lucas João0%
Lenny Vallier0%
João Aurélio0%
Lucas França0%
André Sousa0%
Ulisses0%
Matheus Dias0%
Kaique0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Martim Gustavo Watts0%
Francisco Gonçalves0%
Joel Silva0%
Motez Nourani0%
Pablo Ruan0%
Deivison Souza Brito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ulisses60%
Léo Santos39%
Lenny Vallier36%
Ze Vitor27%
Chiheb Labidi25%
Deivison Souza Brito25%
Matheus Dias23%
Liziero21%
Francisco Gonçalves20%
Paulinho Bóia18%
Jesús Ramírez18%
Daniel Júnior18%
Lucas França17%
Filipe Soares17%
Motez Nourani17%
Gabriel Veron15%
João Aurélio14%
Martim Gustavo Watts14%
Pablo Ruan13%
Witiness Quembo12%
José Gomes11%
Kaique11%
Alan Núñez10%
André Sousa8%
Miguel Baeza7%
Joel Silva6%
Lucas João5%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
José Gomes19%
André Sousa17%
Liziero14%
Alan Núñez10%
Léo Santos6%
Paulinho Bóia6%
Daniel Júnior6%
Lucas João5%
Witiness Quembo4%
Chiheb Labidi4%
Ze Vitor3%
Matheus Dias3%
Lenny Vallier0%
João Aurélio0%
Lucas França0%
Filipe Soares0%
Ulisses0%
Jesús Ramírez0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Gabriel Veron0%
Kaique0%
Martim Gustavo Watts0%
Francisco Gonçalves0%
Joel Silva0%
Motez Nourani0%
Pablo Ruan0%
Deivison Souza Brito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesús Ramírez48%
Paulinho Bóia12%
Miguel Baeza7%
Ze Vitor7%
Pablo Ruan4%
Witiness Quembo4%
Chiheb Labidi4%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Lucas João0%
Lenny Vallier0%
João Aurélio0%
Lucas França0%
Filipe Soares0%
José Gomes0%
André Sousa0%
Ulisses0%
Gabriel Veron0%
Matheus Dias0%
Alan Núñez0%
Kaique0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Martim Gustavo Watts0%
Francisco Gonçalves0%
Joel Silva0%
Motez Nourani0%
Deivison Souza Brito0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
SC Braga's squad is €145m more valuable than Nacional's (€165m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
SC Braga's attack is €35m more valuable than Nacional's (€41m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
SC Braga's midfield is €50m more valuable than Nacional's (€56m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
SC Braga's defence is €60m more valuable than Nacional's (€68m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →