This opponent (Trofense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trofense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.53
1.00
1.73
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
1.69
0.88
1.75
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.36
1.14
1.71
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Covilha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.0%
Under 1.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.6%
Under 2.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.5%
Under 3.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.8%
No
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.3%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
13.8%
0-1
11.9%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
6.0%
0-2 ✓
5.9%
SC Covilha goals ↓
Trofense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
5.9%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
7.7%
6.8%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Covilha goals (down), columns = Trofense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
SC Covilha is 0.12 points worse than Trofense in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
SC Covilha and Trofense are level in goals scored per game (both 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
SC Covilha is 0.18 goals worse than Trofense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
SC Covilha is 6.6 percentage points better than Trofense in terms of average possession (47% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Covilha
For 5.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Trofense
For 5.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Covilha
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
10.5
11.1
9.9
3.9
3.8
4.1
28.0
28.7
27.2
vs Stronger (15)
11.2
11.2
11.3
3.5
4.8
2.1
26.9
29.7
21.3
vs Similar (17)
10.0
11.0
9.4
4.3
2.8
5.7
28.6
27.6
29.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
82%
42%
56%
56%
56%
87%
91%
83%
% under line
39%
18%
58%
44%
44%
44%
13%
9%
17%
This opponent (Trofense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trofense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
10.4
10.7
10.2
5.1
5.5
4.7
32.1
32.5
31.7
vs Stronger (16)
10.2
10.7
9.9
6.1
5.2
6.9
32.3
33.0
31.7
vs Similar (16)
10.7
10.7
10.8
4.1
5.8
2.5
31.9
32.0
31.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
58%
55%
66%
69%
62%
91%
92%
91%
% under line
43%
42%
45%
34%
31%
38%
9%
8%
9%
This opponent (SC Covilha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
11.5
Leixoes
11.4
Estrela
11.4
Academico Viseu
11.3
FC Porto B
10.9
Oliveirense
10.7
Farense
10.7
Penafiel
10.6
Benfica B
10.6
SC Covilha
10.5
Trofense
10.4
Vilafranquense
10.2
Feirense
10.0
Moreirense
10.0
Belenenses
9.9
Tondela
9.7
Mafra
9.5
Torreense
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Oliveirense
7.1
Trofense
7.1
Academico Viseu
6.5
Belenenses
6.5
Leixoes
6.5
Tondela
6.4
FC Porto B
6.2
Estrela
6.1
Farense
6.1
Moreirense
6.1
Torreense
6.0
Nacional
5.6
SC Covilha
5.5
Vilafranquense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Mafra
5.3
Penafiel
5.2
Feirense
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
33.8
Farense
32.6
Trofense
32.1
Oliveirense
31.8
Penafiel
30.8
Nacional
30.3
Belenenses
30.3
Tondela
30.1
Vilafranquense
29.9
Estrela
28.6
Leixoes
28.6
Moreirense
28.4
Torreense
28.3
FC Porto B
28.0
SC Covilha
28.0
Academico Viseu
27.0
Mafra
26.5
Benfica B
25.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.3%
Under 9.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.9%
Under 3.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.6%
Under 21.5
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Covilha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.33
0.73
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.93
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Trofense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trofense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.67
0.60
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.57
0.86
0.71
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Covilha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Covilha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Covilha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Covilha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trofense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trofense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trofense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Covilha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.75
0.57
0.86
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Trofense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trofense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.33
1.13
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
1.12
0.38
1.25
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.79
0.29
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Covilha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Covilha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Covilha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Covilha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trofense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trofense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trofense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Farense
Estrela
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Penafiel
Nacional
Benfica B
Belenenses
Vilaverdense