Scunthorpe’s recent form has been shaky, with two straight defeats and a 2-3 loss to Eastleigh, while Boreham Wood arrive on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Forest Green 3-0. The model favours an away win, assigning a 50 % chance to Boreham Wood, 26 % to Scunthorpe and 24 % to a draw. The expected total is 3.3 goals, with the most likely total at three goals (22 %). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9 % probability. Scunthorpe, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded; Boreham Wood, away against a weaker opponent, averages 1.93 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2 %), Under 6.5 (95.1 %), Under 5.5 (88.7 %), Away +2 handicap (88.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (87.1 %), Under 5.5 cards (86.0 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.3 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Scunthorpe win
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood win
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Scunthorpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.53
1.47
1.67
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
1.25
2.50
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.69
1.38
1.54
1.69
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.63
2.20
1.67
1.87
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
2.10
1.52
2.36
1.43
1.87
1.60
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
4.7%
Scunthorpe goals ↓
Boreham Wood goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.0%
6.5%
4.0%
1.9%
1
4.3%
11%
9.2%
5.7%
2.7%
2
3.8%
7.1%
6.6%
4.1%
1.9%
3
1.8%
3.4%
3.1%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Scunthorpe goals (down), columns = Boreham Wood goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Scunthorpe is 0.13 points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Scunthorpe is 0.31 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Scunthorpe is 0.11 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Scunthorpe is 8.9 percentage points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average possession (49% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Scunthorpe or Draw
53.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
47%
covers Scunthorpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe or Boreham Wood
75.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
47%
covers Scunthorpe + Boreham Wood
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Boreham Wood
71.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Boreham Wood
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Scunthorpe, so a minus line means Scunthorpe give that many goals of a start and Boreham Wood receive them. At -1, Scunthorpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Scunthorpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe -2
4.8%
Draw -2
8.5%
Boreham Wood +2
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe -1
13.3%
Draw -1
15.3%
Boreham Wood +1
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe +1
53.1%
Draw +1
20.3%
Boreham Wood -1
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe +2
73.4%
Draw +2
14.5%
Boreham Wood -2
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Scunthorpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.53
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.50
1.04
0.46
0.92
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
0.90
0.66
0.86
0.57
0.93
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Scunthorpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.65
0.92
0.62
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.40
1.00
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.21
0.86
1.50
0.86
0.93
0.87
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →