Scunthorpe are tipped to edge Hartlepool in a tight National League encounter, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal total sits at 2.8, but the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.9% chance. Scunthorpe’s home form shows they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition, while Hartlepool, playing away, average 1.31 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The match probabilities are 44% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 29% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.3%, Under 5.5 at 93.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.5%, Home +2 handicap at 87.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 87.2% and Under 4.5 at 84.7%. Scunthorpe’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and Hartlepool’s return from a loss add intrigue to a match that is likely to see both sides find the net.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Scunthorpe win
47.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Scunthorpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.53
1.47
1.67
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
1.25
2.50
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.69
1.38
1.54
1.69
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.57
1.14
1.21
1.00
1.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.58
1.23
1.08
1.15
2.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
8.2%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Scunthorpe goals ↓
Hartlepool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.9%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.8%
13%
6.7%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.2%
9.5%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.4%
5.2%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Scunthorpe goals (down), columns = Hartlepool goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Scunthorpe is 0.29 points better than Hartlepool in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Scunthorpe is 0.51 goals better than Hartlepool in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Scunthorpe is 0.07 goals worse than Hartlepool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Scunthorpe is 1.6 percentage points better than Hartlepool in terms of average possession (49% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Scunthorpe or Draw
74.1%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Scunthorpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe or Hartlepool
73.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Scunthorpe + Hartlepool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hartlepool
52.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Draw + Hartlepool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Scunthorpe, so a minus line means Scunthorpe give that many goals of a start and Hartlepool receive them. At -1, Scunthorpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Scunthorpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe -2
10.7%
Draw -2
14.7%
Hartlepool +2
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe -1
25.4%
Draw -1
21.8%
Hartlepool +1
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe +1
74.1%
Draw +1
15.2%
Hartlepool -1
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Scunthorpe)
Scunthorpe +2
89.2%
Draw +2
7.4%
Hartlepool -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Scunthorpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.53
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.50
1.04
0.46
0.92
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.29
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.62
0.46
0.23
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Scunthorpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.65
0.92
0.62
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.71
0.93
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.96
0.77
0.85
0.62
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Hartlepool have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Hartlepool have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Hartlepool have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Hartlepool have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Sutton
Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Southend
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Halifax
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull