This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.70
2.50
1.21
1.56
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.76
2.50
1.38
1.31
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
2.56
1.56
2.50
1.00
2.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.8%
Under 2.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.1%
Selfoss goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.2%
6.1%
2.3%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.1%
8.1%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Selfoss goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.29
Thor Akureyri
2.17
Valur Reykjavik
2.17
Grindavik
2.00
KA Akureyri
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.80
Fjolnir
1.60
Keflavik
1.60
IA Akranes
1.57
Afturelding
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Selfoss
1.35
Fylkir
1.20
Völsungur
1.09
Leiknir R.
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Stjarnan
0.60
Njardvik
0.40
Vestri
0.40
Selfoss is 0.75 points better than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
3.33
Afturelding
3.20
Breidablik
2.86
Thor Akureyri
2.83
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
KR Reykjavik
2.60
IA Akranes
2.43
IR Reykjavik
2.40
Leiknir R.
2.40
Keflavik
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.20
Selfoss
1.93
Fylkir
1.80
Fjolnir
1.80
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Fram Reykjavik
1.60
Völsungur
1.55
HK Kopavogur
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
Stjarnan
0.80
Vestri
0.60
Selfoss is 1.13 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Thor Akureyri
0.67
Breidablik
0.71
KA Akureyri
1.20
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.20
Valur Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.57
Fylkir
1.60
Fjolnir
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Vestri
1.60
Throttur Reykjavik
1.80
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
KR Reykjavik
1.80
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.01
Leiknir R.
2.20
Keflavik
2.20
Stjarnan
2.20
Völsungur
2.50
IR Reykjavik
2.80
Njardvik
2.80
Afturelding
2.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.40
Selfoss is 0.19 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (2.01 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Selfoss or Draw✗ Miss
67.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
33%
covers Selfoss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Selfoss or Stjarnan✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
33%
covers Selfoss + Stjarnan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stjarnan✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
33%
covers Draw + Stjarnan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Selfoss over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Selfoss, so a minus line means Selfoss give that many goals of a start and Stjarnan receive them. At -1, Selfoss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Selfoss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Selfoss)Actual: Stjarnan
Selfoss -2
5.7%
Draw -2
11.1%
Stjarnan +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Selfoss)Actual: Stjarnan
Selfoss -1
16.7%
Draw -1
20.3%
Stjarnan +1
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Selfoss)Actual: Stjarnan
Selfoss +1
67.4%
Draw +1
18.7%
Stjarnan -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Selfoss)Actual: Stjarnan
Selfoss +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.5%
Stjarnan -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Selfoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.56
1.25
0.71
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.36
0.45
1.36
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.57
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Selfoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.03
1.62
0.75
0.86
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
1.09
1.45
0.55
0.73
1.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.00
1.75
1.50
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.97
1.50
0.64
1.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.19
1.50
1.00
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.44
1.50
0.17
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →