Servette FC, fresh from a 2-1 win over Grasshoppers, will host FC Luzern, who also come off a 1-0 victory against Lausanne. The model sees a 49 % chance of a home win, 25 % for a draw and 26 % for an away win, making the home win the clear favourite. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.3 % probability. Servette’s home form against similar opponents averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Luzern’s away form against similar teams yields 1.77 scored and 1.69 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 % with a 5 % edge, Under 7.5 at 97.9 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.4 % with a 6 % edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8 % with a 4 % edge, Under 6.5 at 94.7 % with a 4 % edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3 % with an 8 % edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.2 % with a 3 % edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 89.9 % with a 6 % edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Servette FC, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extends both sides’ recent streaks of mixed results. The model had given the home win a 48% chance, but it was wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Under 7.5 at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.0%, Under 6.5 at 94.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.9%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 89.9%. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, yet the predicted 3-goal total was not reached.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Servette FC win✗ Miss
48.2%
Avg Implied 49.7% · @ 1.88
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.92
Dafabet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.83
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.90
FC Luzern win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.58
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Betano
3.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Servette FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.57
1.93
1.33
1.80
1.80
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.50
4.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.36
1.54
1.00
1.92
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
2.67
5.00
3.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.83
2.00
2.07
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
2.00
1.84
2.25
2.00
1.77
1.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.67
1.00
2.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.4%
@ 1.13+1.2%
Under 1.5
16.6%
@ 5.24-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Under
Pinnacle
5.60
Superbet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.48-1.6%
Under 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.50+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Marathonbet
1.46
Under
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.0%
@ 2.20-3.6%
Under 3.5
61.0%
@ 1.63+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.8%
@ 1.45-0.9%
No
37.1%
@ 2.54+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
No
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.3%@ 7.49+5.3%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.98+3.7%
2-0
7.1%@ 11.00+3.0%
1-2
6.9%@ 11.36+2.9%
1-0
6.7%@ 10.11+2.2%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.93+2.1%
3-1
5.8%@ 11.85+1.9%
0-0
5.3%@ 16.30+2.5%
Servette FC goals ↓
FC Luzern goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.6%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.7%
11%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.4%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.3%
5.8%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
2.0%
2.6%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Servette FC goals (down), columns = FC Luzern goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
Servette FC is 0.53 points worse than FC Luzern in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
Servette FC is 0.37 goals worse than FC Luzern in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
Servette FC is 0.47 goals better than FC Luzern in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
Servette FC is 8.9 percentage points better than FC Luzern in terms of average possession (53% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Servette FC
For 6.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Luzern
For 7.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Servette FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.0
10.7
4.4
4.4
4.5
23.8
24.0
23.7
vs Stronger (7)
11.6
9.3
13.2
4.3
5.3
3.5
20.6
21.7
19.8
vs Similar (39)
10.3
10.2
10.4
4.6
4.5
4.6
24.5
24.8
24.1
vs Weaker (4)
8.8
9.0
8.5
3.5
2.0
5.0
23.8
19.5
28.0
% over line
60%
60%
61%
70%
69%
71%
69%
72%
65%
% under line
40%
40%
39%
30%
31%
29%
31%
28%
35%
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.2
9.6
4.6
5.1
4.1
24.0
24.7
23.4
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
10.3
6.5
4.0
4.7
3.0
22.4
23.0
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.7
11.4
10.0
4.7
5.2
4.2
24.4
24.9
23.8
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
10.5
7.5
5.0
5.5
4.5
22.8
24.5
21.0
% over line
54%
60%
48%
76%
84%
68%
66%
72%
60%
% under line
46%
40%
52%
24%
16%
32%
34%
28%
40%
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.8
Lausanne
10.6
FC ST. Gallen
10.5
FC Luzern
10.4
Servette FC
10.4
FC Basel 1893
10.3
FC Thun
10.3
FC Vaduz
9.8
Grasshoppers
9.7
BSC Young Boys
9.6
FC Sion
9.5
FC Lugano
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.1
FC Thun
5.0
FC Zurich
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.9
FC Vaduz
4.9
FC Lugano
4.6
Servette FC
4.6
FC Luzern
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.3
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.5
FC Basel 1893
26.6
FC Sion
26.5
FC Lugano
25.2
Grasshoppers
25.0
Lausanne
24.5
FC Vaduz
24.4
BSC Young Boys
24.1
FC Luzern
24.0
Servette FC
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
@ 1.46-6.1%
Under 9.5
43.1%
@ 2.49+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.41
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.40+2.7%
Under 3.5
33.0%
@ 2.52-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
Under
Superbet
2.52
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.8%
Under 21.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Servette FC or Draw✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
-6.3%
48%
25%
27%
covers Servette FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Servette FC or FC Luzern✗ Miss
75.3%
Avg Implied 76.5% · @ 1.22
Edge
-1.2%
48%
25%
27%
covers Servette FC + FC Luzern
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Draw or FC Luzern✓ Hit
57.2%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.88
Edge
+7.5%
48%
25%
27%
covers Draw + FC Luzern
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.91
SBO
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Servette FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.3%
@ 1.11-0.6%
Under
16.7%
@ 5.77+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
BetVictor
5.50
Servette FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.3%
@ 1.62-4.4%
Under
46.7%
@ 2.21+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Servette FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 2.89-5.5%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.37+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Under
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
Servette FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.83-5.2%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.10+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Under
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
FC Luzern over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.5%
@ 1.27+5.3%
Under
21.5%
@ 3.47-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.62
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
FC Luzern over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.5%
@ 2.35+5.7%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.55-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
FC Luzern over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 5.31+2.6%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.13-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
FC Luzern over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 11.69-1.0%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Servette FC, so a minus line means Servette FC give that many goals of a start and FC Luzern receive them. At -1, Servette FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Servette FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Servette FC)Actual: FC Luzern
Servette FC -2
10.3%
@ 5.73-5.3%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 5.24-3.8%
FC Luzern +2
76.5%
@ 1.32+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Unibet
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap -1 (Servette FC)Actual: FC Luzern
Servette FC -1
23.5%
@ 3.04-5.9%
Draw -1
19.4%
@ 3.89-3.6%
FC Luzern +1
57.2%
@ 1.88+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.04
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.85
Handicap +1 (Servette FC)Actual: Servette FC
Servette FC +1
67.6%
@ 1.27-3.1%
Draw +1
16.5%
@ 5.51+0.3%
FC Luzern -1
15.9%
@ 6.88+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Unibet
5.10
Away
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Servette FC)Actual: Servette FC
Servette FC +2
84.1%
@ 1.08-2.0%
Draw +2
9.8%
@ 11.00+1.3%
FC Luzern -2
6.1%
@ 17.00+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Servette FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.68
0.85
0.38
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
3.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.84
0.92
0.83
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.23-0.6%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.75+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.14-3.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.65+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.25
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 4.73-5.1%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.16+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
William Hil
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Under
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 1.60-3.9%
Under
45.9%
@ 2.22+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Under
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Servette FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.2%
@ 3.87-4.7%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.22+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.55
Under
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Servette FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 9.42-5.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
10Bet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.3%
@ 2.03-3.4%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.71+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.70
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 6.18-4.8%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.09+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.20
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 17.00-3.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Servette FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
0.87
0.73
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.68
0.69
0.62
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.00
1.13
1.20
1.20
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.00
1.33
1.17
1.23
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.14-0.7%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 5.15+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Betano
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.7%
@ 1.69-4.3%
Under 1.5
49.3%
@ 2.08+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.04
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 3.13-7.0%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.32+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.18
1xBet
3.18
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
61.2%
@ 1.41-4.7%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.73+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.75
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Servette FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 2.92-7.3%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.35+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
2.92
10Bet
2.90
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Servette FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 7.03-7.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.06+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.4%
@ 1.74+0.1%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.99-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Under
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.93
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 4.59-1.9%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.16+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 12.00-4.4%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.7%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.09
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.0%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.4%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.8%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.9%
1.13
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
1.27
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.28
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
75.8%
1.25
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.35
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.3%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.23
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Servette FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mathis Lambourde33%
S. Mráz20%
M. Stevanović20%
T. Ouattara20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Houboulang Mendes0%
Florian Ayé0%
D. Douline0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
Quentin Maceiras0%
Steve Rouiller0%
Timothé Cognat0%
M. Burch0%
L. Njoh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Naressi60%
Timothé Cognat40%
D. Douline25%
S. Mráz20%
Quentin Maceiras20%
M. Burch20%
L. Njoh20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Houboulang Mendes0%
Florian Ayé0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
Steve Rouiller0%
M. Stevanović0%
Mathis Lambourde0%
T. Ouattara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Timothé Cognat40%
Houboulang Mendes20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Florian Ayé0%
D. Douline0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
S. Mráz0%
Quentin Maceiras0%
Steve Rouiller0%
M. Stevanović0%
M. Burch0%
L. Njoh0%
Mathis Lambourde0%
T. Ouattara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathis Lambourde67%
S. Mráz40%
T. Ouattara40%
Florian Ayé33%
Houboulang Mendes20%
M. Stevanović20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Pedro Naressi0%
D. Douline0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
Quentin Maceiras0%
Steve Rouiller0%
Timothé Cognat0%
M. Burch0%
L. Njoh0%
FC Luzern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Di Giusto33%
N. Toggenburger33%
Stefan Knežević25%
D. Mikołajewski25%
Andrejs Cigaņiks17%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Pius Dorn0%
Leonardo Bertone0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Aurelio Oehlers0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Mio Zimmermann0%
Lucas Silva0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Oscar Kabwit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrejs Cigaņiks50%
Bung Hua Freimann40%
Leonardo Bertone33%
N. Toggenburger33%
Mio Zimmermann33%
D. Mikołajewski25%
Pius Dorn20%
Tyron Owusu20%
Lucas Silva17%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Stefan Knežević0%
M. Di Giusto0%
Aurelio Oehlers0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Oscar Kabwit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aurelio Oehlers33%
D. Mikołajewski25%
Oscar Kabwit20%
M. Di Giusto17%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Pius Dorn0%
Andrejs Cigaņiks0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Leonardo Bertone0%
Tyron Owusu0%
N. Toggenburger0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Mio Zimmermann0%
Lucas Silva0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Mikołajewski50%
M. Di Giusto33%
Oscar Kabwit20%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Pius Dorn0%
Andrejs Cigaņiks0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Leonardo Bertone0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Aurelio Oehlers0%
N. Toggenburger0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Mio Zimmermann0%
Lucas Silva0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
Servette FC's squad is €4m less valuable than FC Luzern's (€21m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
Servette FC's attack is €8m less valuable than FC Luzern's (€7m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
Servette FC's midfield is €4m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€7m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
Servette FC and FC Luzern have a similar defence value (both €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz