Shakhtar Donetsk are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of Polessya taking the victory. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 26% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability. Shakhtar’s home form shows they average 2.08 goals scored and only 0.58 conceded against weaker opposition, while Polessya’s away record against stronger teams yields no goals scored and one conceded on average. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (94.7%) with a 3% edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.8%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Shakhtar Donetsk, the pre-match favourite with a 55% chance of victory, fell to a 0-2 defeat, leaving the model’s call incorrect. The match finished 0-2 in favour of Polessya, who were coming off a win and had a strong away form. The model had predicted a home win, but the reality was the opposite. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.4%, Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.8%, Under 5.5 hit at 94.4%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.3%. All selections were successful, underscoring the low-scoring nature of the game.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk win✗ Miss
55.2%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.74
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Dafabet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.46
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.61
Dafabet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Polessya win✓ Hit
19.1%
Avg Implied 20.4% · @ 4.53
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
5.05
Pinnacle
5.03
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
William Hil
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.77
2.07
0.71
2.25
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.80
1.60
2.00
1.50
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.24
0.60
2.08
0.58
2.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polessya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.73
1.73
0.67
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.22
1.80
1.20
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
2.16
0.53
1.89
0.44
2.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
@ 1.34+6.9%
Under 1.5
23.9%
@ 3.00-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.06
1xBet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.4%
@ 2.07+5.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.70-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
1xBet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
@ 3.65+3.0%
Under 3.5
71.7%
@ 1.24-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.95
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
@ 1.95+4.3%
No
48.5%
@ 1.75-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
No
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 6.27+6.1%
1-0
10.7%@ 5.86+4.1%
2-0
10.4%@ 7.28+5.0%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.78+4.8%
0-0
7.9%@ 8.21+3.2%
3-0
6.0%@ 12.58+2.9%
3-1
5.7%@ 13.83+2.9%
0-1
5.3%@ 10.12+1.5%
Shakhtar Donetsk goals ↓
Polessya goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
5.3%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.0%
5.7%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhtar Donetsk goals (down), columns = Polessya goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
Livyi Bereh
2.00
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Chornomorets
1.36
Bukovyna
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Shakhtar Donetsk is 0.43 points better than Polessya in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Chornomorets
1.23
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Bukovyna
1.17
Kudrivka
1.06
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Shakhtar Donetsk is 0.67 goals better than Polessya in terms of goals scored per game (2.37 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Polessya
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.24
Bukovyna
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.33
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Shakhtar Donetsk is 11.8 percentage points better than Polessya in terms of average possession (68% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk
For 5.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Polessya
For 6.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 8.1 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shakhtar Donetsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
2.6
2.8
2.3
19.4
18.4
20.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
9.2
12.5
6.0
4.4
5.6
3.0
23.0
19.0
27.0
vs Weaker (41)
8.9
8.6
9.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
18.8
18.3
19.5
% over line
39%
40%
38%
34%
40%
28%
14%
7%
23%
% under line
61%
60%
62%
66%
60%
72%
86%
93%
77%
This opponent (Polessya) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polessya
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.6
2.2
2.0
2.5
19.8
18.4
21.1
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.2
8.1
8.2
2.9
2.8
3.0
18.6
17.7
19.7
vs Weaker (30)
10.1
9.6
10.5
2.0
1.6
2.4
20.8
19.0
22.0
% over line
30%
21%
38%
24%
20%
28%
30%
21%
38%
% under line
70%
79%
62%
76%
80%
72%
70%
79%
62%
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Kudrivka
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.9%
@ 2.25+4.8%
Under 9.5
54.1%
@ 1.57-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.52
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
36.4%
Under 21.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw✗ Miss
80.9%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
+1.4%
55%
26%
19%
covers Shakhtar Donetsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Shakhtar Donetsk or Polessya✓ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.9%
55%
26%
19%
covers Shakhtar Donetsk + Polessya
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Polessya✓ Hit
44.8%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.98
Edge
-2.2%
55%
26%
19%
covers Draw + Polessya
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.6%
@ 1.19+5.1%
Under
17.4%
@ 4.08-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.90
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.95+4.3%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.78-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 3.86+1.6%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.21-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 7.90-1.4%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
7.70
Under
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Polessya over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.1%
@ 1.63+4.2%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.15-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.13
10Bet
2.10
Polessya over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.3%
@ 4.08+1.7%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.20-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Under
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Polessya over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 10.73-1.7%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.20
Marathonbet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
Polessya over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shakhtar Donetsk, so a minus line means Shakhtar Donetsk give that many goals of a start and Polessya receive them. At -1, Shakhtar Donetsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhtar Donetsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shakhtar Donetsk)Actual: Polessya
Shakhtar Donetsk -2
14.2%
@ 5.60-1.5%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 4.85-0.8%
Polessya +2
68.4%
@ 1.33+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.60
Draw
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Shakhtar Donetsk)Actual: Polessya
Shakhtar Donetsk -1
31.6%
@ 3.05+2.2%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.38-2.9%
Polessya +1
44.8%
@ 2.02+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
2.85
Draw
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
2.07
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Shakhtar Donetsk)Actual: Polessya
Shakhtar Donetsk +1
80.9%
@ 1.14+11.4%
Draw +1
12.2%
@ 4.25-6.4%
Polessya -1
6.8%
@ 6.70-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
6.70
Handicap +2 (Shakhtar Donetsk)Actual: Draw
Shakhtar Donetsk +2
93.2%
Draw +2
5.1%
Polessya -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shakhtar Donetsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.50
0.50
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
0.76
0.32
0.58
0.50
0.92
0.15
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polessya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.23
0.87
0.13
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.44
1.20
0.20
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
0.16
0.78
0.11
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.3%
@ 1.42+5.2%
Under 0.5
29.7%
@ 2.65-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.75
Pinnacle
2.69
1xBet
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.98+6.1%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.35-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.99
10Bet
2.95
Under
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 7.55+1.1%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.06-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.37
Superbet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Under
1xBet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.0%
@ 1.82+4.1%
Under
45.0%
@ 1.89-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 5.17+1.0%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.12-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polessya over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.3%
@ 2.80+4.3%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.38-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.84
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Polessya over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 11.75-93.3%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
11.50
Under
No market prices yet.
Polessya over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhtar Donetsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.40
1.57
0.21
1.44
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.28
1.50
0.08
1.46
0.46
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polessya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.87
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.37
1.11
0.33
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.27+5.8%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.36-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.36
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 2.28+3.5%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.56-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.38
Superbet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 4.93+2.2%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.14-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.92
Marathonbet
4.80
Under
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
64.1%
@ 1.59+6.0%
Under
35.9%
@ 2.21-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.58
Under
1xBet
2.24
Superbet
2.17
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.4%
@ 3.62+0.0%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.24-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.55
Under
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 9.90-0.8%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Under
1xBet
1.01
Polessya over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 2.33-0.4%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.53+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.27
Under
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.49
Polessya over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 8.50+0.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.03-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Polessya over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.0%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
80.9%
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.13
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-3.0%
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
1.34
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.5%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.2%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
1.24
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.42
Marathonbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+5.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Shakhtar Donetsk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Meirelles39%
Eguinaldo35%
Kauã Elias33%
Maryan Shved25%
Alisson Santana23%
Newerton Palmares23%
Pedrinho19%
Yehor Nazaryna17%
Isaque13%
Oleg Ocheretko12%
Marlon Gomes11%
Lucas Ferreira11%
Lassina Traoré10%
Artem Bondarenko10%
Alaa Ghram9%
Valeriy Bondar8%
Yukhym Konoplia7%
Vinícius Tobias5%
Pedro Henrique5%
Mykola Matviyenko0%
Dmytro Riznyk0%
Irakli Azarovi0%
Marlon0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Dmytro Kryskiv0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Prosper Obah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yukhym Konoplia27%
Valeriy Bondar25%
Vinícius Tobias19%
Pedro Henrique19%
Irakli Azarovi18%
Eguinaldo18%
Marlon Gomes16%
Oleg Ocheretko12%
Dmytro Kryskiv12%
Marlon11%
Alaa Ghram9%
Newerton Palmares9%
Mykola Matviyenko9%
Isaque9%
Alisson Santana8%
Yehor Nazaryna6%
Luca Meirelles6%
Pedrinho5%
Kauã Elias5%
Lassina Traoré0%
Dmytro Riznyk0%
Maryan Shved0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Artem Bondarenko0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Prosper Obah0%
Lucas Ferreira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaque26%
Georgiy Sudakov25%
Kauã Elias24%
Yukhym Konoplia20%
Irakli Azarovi18%
Marlon Gomes16%
Pedrinho14%
Artem Bondarenko10%
Pedro Henrique10%
Oleg Ocheretko8%
Alisson Santana8%
Eguinaldo6%
Yehor Nazaryna6%
Lucas Ferreira5%
Dmytro Riznyk5%
Vinícius Tobias5%
Lassina Traoré0%
Valeriy Bondar0%
Mykola Matviyenko0%
Marlon0%
Alaa Ghram0%
Maryan Shved0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Dmytro Kryskiv0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Newerton Palmares0%
Prosper Obah0%
Luca Meirelles0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eguinaldo35%
Kauã Elias33%
Alisson Santana31%
Lassina Traoré30%
Georgiy Sudakov25%
Newerton Palmares23%
Lucas Ferreira11%
Yehor Nazaryna6%
Luca Meirelles6%
Pedro Henrique5%
Valeriy Bondar0%
Mykola Matviyenko0%
Dmytro Riznyk0%
Pedrinho0%
Irakli Azarovi0%
Marlon0%
Alaa Ghram0%
Maryan Shved0%
Yukhym Konoplia0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Oleg Ocheretko0%
Artem Bondarenko0%
Dmytro Kryskiv0%
Vinícius Tobias0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Marlon Gomes0%
Prosper Obah0%
Isaque0%
Polessya · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oleksandr Nazarenko30%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak29%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi25%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi25%
Igor Krasnopir25%
Mykola Haiduchyk23%
Eduard Sarapiyy18%
Vladyslav Veleten17%
Giorgi Maisuradze17%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Lindon Emërllahu12%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Talles Costa10%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Serhii Chobotenko0%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Ruslan Babenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Borys Krushynskyi0%
João Vialle0%
André Gonçalves0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vladyslav Veleten33%
Yaroslav Karaman33%
Borys Krushynskyi31%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi25%
Talles Costa20%
Yevgen Volynets19%
Serhii Chobotenko17%
Oleg Fedor17%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko15%
Eduard Sarapiyy14%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Ilir Krasniqi12%
Mykyta Kravchenko11%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Ruslan Babenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
Mykola Haiduchyk0%
João Vialle0%
Lindon Emërllahu0%
André Gonçalves0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vladyslav Veleten33%
Igor Krasnopir25%
Oleg Fedor17%
Borys Krushynskyi15%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Lindon Emërllahu12%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak10%
Serhii Chobotenko6%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi5%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko5%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Ruslan Babenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Eduard Sarapiyy0%
Talles Costa0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
Mykola Haiduchyk0%
João Vialle0%
André Gonçalves0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oleksiy Gutsulyak29%
Eduard Sarapiyy23%
Tomer Yosefi17%
Mykola Haiduchyk14%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi10%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Borys Krushynskyi8%
Oleksandr Filippov6%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Ruslan Babenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi0%
Serhii Chobotenko0%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Vladyslav Veleten0%
Talles Costa0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
João Vialle0%
Lindon Emërllahu0%
André Gonçalves0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (33)
€186m
DK (37)
€91m
POL (32)
€34m
M1K (26)
€28m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
KK (27)
€13m
ZL (27)
€11m
KK (19)
€11m
BUK (25)
€9m
VR (21)
€7m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
CHO (21)
€5m
KUD (24)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Shakhtar Donetsk's squad is €152m more valuable than Polessya's (€186m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€115m
DK (13)
€32m
POL (9)
€12m
M1K (10)
€10m
LC (9)
€8m
KK (10)
€5m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
ZL (11)
€3m
KK (7)
€3m
VR (9)
€3m
OBO (9)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
Shakhtar Donetsk's attack is €103m more valuable than Polessya's (€115m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (8)
€26m
SD (4)
€19m
POL (9)
€8m
M1K (6)
€7m
LC (5)
€5m
KK (4)
€3m
ZL (5)
€3m
KAR (5)
€2m
KK (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
OBO (5)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Shakhtar Donetsk's midfield is €11m more valuable than Polessya's (€19m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (13)
€52m
DK (16)
€33m
POL (14)
€14m
M1K (10)
€11m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
KK (7)
€6m
ZL (11)
€6m
KK (13)
€5m
VR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Shakhtar Donetsk's defence is €38m more valuable than Polessya's (€52m vs €14m).
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →
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Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Zorya Luhansk
Bukovyna
Veres Rivne
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Obolon'-Brovar
Kudrivka
Kolos Kovalivka