Shakhter Soligorsk’s recent run of three straight defeats has left the home side vulnerable, while Lida, fresh from a win, looks poised to capitalize on the weaker opposition. The model projects an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 50% chance for Lida, 28% for Shakhter and 22% for a draw. The expected total is 3.8 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 8.7% chance. Shakhter, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Lida, away against a stronger opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Under 7.5 at 96.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.9%, Under 6.5 at 91.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 90.7%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.3%, and Over 1.5 at 90.0%.
Results analysis
The win extends Shakhter Soligorsk’s run of four straight defeats, while Lida rides a two-game winning streak. The final score was 1-2, an away victory that matched the model’s pick of an away win with a 50% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.1%, Under 7.5 hit at 96.0%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 91.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 91.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 90.7%, Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 90.3%, and Over 1.5 hit at 90.0%. The model’s predictions proved reliable in this contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhter Soligorsk win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.22
Edge
-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.77
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
Lida win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.54
Edge
+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.59
Dafabet
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.77
0.79
1.86
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.62
0.75
1.75
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.37
2.56
1.19
2.00
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
2.30
1.39
2.67
1.17
1.91
1.64
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.33
2.25
1.25
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.9%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Under 2.5
27.1%
@ 3.04-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.29
Under
Marathonbet
3.04
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.4%
@ 1.80+1.2%
Under 3.5
47.6%
@ 1.89-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.89
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.8%
@ 1.29+1.3%
No
28.2%
@ 3.08-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.29
No
Marathonbet
3.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.7%
1-2 ✓
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
6.3%
0-2
5.3%
2-3
5.1%
0-1
4.1%
Shakhter Soligorsk goals ↓
Lida goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
4.1%
5.3%
3.9%
2.1%
1
2.9%
8.7%
8.6%
6.3%
3.4%
2
3.0%
6.4%
7.0%
5.1%
2.7%
3
1.6%
3.5%
3.8%
2.7%
1.5%
4
0.6%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (down), columns = Lida goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Shakhter Soligorsk is 1.27 points worse than Lida in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Shakhter Soligorsk is 0.52 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Shakhter Soligorsk is 1.04 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhter Soligorsk or Draw✗ Miss
50.2%
Avg Implied 65.1% · @ 1.38
Edge
-14.9%
28%
22%
50%
covers Shakhter Soligorsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.38
Shakhter Soligorsk or Lida✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.18
Edge
+1.7%
28%
22%
50%
covers Shakhter Soligorsk + Lida
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw or Lida✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.53
Edge
+13.2%
28%
22%
50%
covers Draw + Lida
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.53
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.1%
@ 1.59-9.5%
Under
51.9%
@ 2.16+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.59
Under
Marathonbet
2.16
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.1%
@ 2.84-10.1%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.35+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
Marathonbet
1.35
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.9%
@ 1.74+11.0%
Under
36.1%
@ 1.95-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Marathonbet
1.95
Lida over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shakhter Soligorsk, so a minus line means Shakhter Soligorsk give that many goals of a start and Lida receive them. At -1, Shakhter Soligorsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhter Soligorsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Lida) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.19
0.56
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.52
1.33
0.58
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.9%
Under 0.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.4%
@ 1.88-5.5%
Under 1.5
56.6%
@ 1.80+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Marathonbet
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.6%
Under 2.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
65.9%
Under
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.07
0.50
1.07
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.83
1.38
0.62
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.87
1.33
0.58
1.18
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.8%
Under 0.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.0%
@ 1.49-5.1%
Under 1.5
44.0%
@ 2.34+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Marathonbet
2.34
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.3%
@ 2.50-11.1%
Under 2.5
74.7%
@ 1.43+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.43
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.9%
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
-
-
-
-
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.8%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.9%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.0%
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
-
-
-
-
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
72.0%
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
-
-
-
-
+16.0%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.8%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →