Shakhter Soligorsk’s home form shows a defensive frailty, conceding 1.75 goals per game while scoring only 0.75, and they are coming off a 1-4 loss to Molodechno-DYuSSh. Minsk II, playing away, averages 1.9 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, and they have just drawn 0-0 with FC Slutsk. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 53% chance of victory, a 24% chance for Shakhter to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The expected total is 3.6 goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.4% probability. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Under 6.5 (92.9%), Away +2 handicap (89%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.4%), Over 1.5 (88.1%), Under 5.5 (84.7%) and Away under 3.5 goals (82.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhter Soligorsk win
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II win
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.73
0.79
1.79
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.57
0.73
1.64
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.57
0.86
1.81
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.00
1.00
0.91
1.82
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.7%
Under 3.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-1
5.4%
0-3
4.7%
Shakhter Soligorsk goals ↓
Minsk II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
5.4%
6.6%
4.7%
2.5%
1
3.3%
9.7%
9.3%
6.6%
3.5%
2
2.9%
6.2%
6.5%
4.6%
2.4%
3
1.4%
2.9%
3.1%
2.2%
1.1%
4
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (down), columns = Minsk II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Shakhter Soligorsk is 0.98 points worse than Minsk II in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Shakhter Soligorsk is 0.09 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Shakhter Soligorsk is 1.75 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhter Soligorsk or Draw
47.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
23%
53%
covers Shakhter Soligorsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk or Minsk II
77.3%
Avg Implied -
24%
23%
53%
covers Shakhter Soligorsk + Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Minsk II
75.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
23%
53%
covers Draw + Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
Under
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 3.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shakhter Soligorsk, so a minus line means Shakhter Soligorsk give that many goals of a start and Minsk II receive them. At -1, Shakhter Soligorsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhter Soligorsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk -2
3.9%
Draw -2
7.1%
Minsk II +2
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk -1
11.0%
Draw -1
13.4%
Minsk II +1
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk +1
47.1%
Draw +1
20.6%
Minsk II -1
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk +2
67.7%
Draw +2
16.2%
Minsk II -2
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shakhter Soligorsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.29
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.65
0.18
0.73
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.36
0.45
0.27
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
2.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.91
0.55
0.91
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.14
2.50
0.00
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →