Shakhter Soligorsk, who have struggled to find the net at home, are tipped to edge Osipovichy in a high-scoring affair that the model expects to average 3.4 goals. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% chance, and the overall most likely total is three goals at 22%. The home side’s average of 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against weaker opponents contrasts sharply with Osipovichy’s 0.77 goals scored and 2.38 conceded at home against stronger teams. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a draw at 24% and an away win at 25%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Home +2 handicap (88.8%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (85.8%) and Over 1.5 (85.8%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a tightly contested, goal-laden match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhter Soligorsk win
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy win
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.73
0.79
1.79
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.57
0.73
1.64
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.07
1.27
1.93
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (26)
0.96
2.23
1.15
2.08
0.77
2.38
vs Similar (4)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
Shakhter Soligorsk goals ↓
Osipovichy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.8%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
1
6.0%
10%
6.5%
2.9%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.6%
6.3%
4.3%
1.9%
0.7%
4
2.3%
3.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (down), columns = Osipovichy goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Shakhter Soligorsk is 0.98 points worse than Osipovichy in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Shakhter Soligorsk is 0.48 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Shakhter Soligorsk is 1.32 goals worse than Osipovichy in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhter Soligorsk or Draw
74.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
24%
25%
covers Shakhter Soligorsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk or Osipovichy
76.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
24%
25%
covers Shakhter Soligorsk + Osipovichy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Osipovichy
48.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
24%
25%
covers Draw + Osipovichy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shakhter Soligorsk, so a minus line means Shakhter Soligorsk give that many goals of a start and Osipovichy receive them. At -1, Shakhter Soligorsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhter Soligorsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk -2
14.6%
Draw -2
15.7%
Osipovichy +2
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk -1
30.3%
Draw -1
20.8%
Osipovichy +1
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk +1
74.7%
Draw +1
14.0%
Osipovichy -1
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shakhter Soligorsk)
Shakhter Soligorsk +2
88.7%
Draw +2
7.4%
Osipovichy -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shakhter Soligorsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.29
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.65
0.18
0.73
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.96
0.62
0.77
0.38
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
Under 0.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.9%
Under 1.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.91
0.55
0.91
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.20
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (26)
0.46
1.27
0.54
1.31
0.38
1.23
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.8%
Under 0.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.8%
Under 1.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.8%
Under 2.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.5%
Under
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →