Barnet looks poised to take the three points on the road against Shrewsbury, with the model predicting an away win, a 54% chance of such an outcome, and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected total goals stands at 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. One scoreline stands out, a 0-1 victory for Barnet, with a 13.3% probability. Shrewsbury's home form is concerning, scoring an average of 1 goal at home, while conceding 0.83. In contrast, Barnet has been scoring 1.43 goals on the road, albeit against weaker opponents, and conceding 1.14. The model suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.1% chance of success, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 70.1% chance. Shrewsbury has a 18% chance of winning, while Barnet has a 54% chance, and a draw is 28% likely. Other selections include Under 3.5, with a 78.1% chance, and Over 1.5, with a 70.1% chance.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Barnet secured a 3-1 away win, extending their five-game winning streak while Shrewsbury fell to three consecutive defeats. The favourite, Away win, came with a 57 % probability and was correct. The final score of 1-3 matched the actual result. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.0 %, Under 6.5 at 98.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8 %, Under 5.5 at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1 %, and Home under 2.5 goals at 95.1 %. The model’s selections all performed as forecast.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shrewsbury win✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.75
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.93
Bet365
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.42
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Barnet win✓ Hit
56.9%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.93
Edge
+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.53
0.92
1.23
0.76
1.76
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
0.50
0.50
1.67
4.33
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.28
1.00
1.36
0.57
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.23
2.00
1.20
1.47
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.73
1.23
2.00
1.20
1.47
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
@ 1.29+5.6%
Under 1.5
22.1%
@ 3.35-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.57
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.92+4.1%
Under 2.5
47.1%
@ 1.83-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
SBO
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.7%
@ 3.29+2.4%
Under 3.5
69.3%
@ 1.30-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
@ 1.77+0.7%
No
47.1%
@ 1.93-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
No
1xBet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Unibet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 6.21+4.8%
0-2
10.3%@ 8.59+5.2%
0-1
10.2%@ 6.75+3.7%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.98+4.4%
0-0
7.2%@ 9.15+2.4%
0-3
6.3%@ 15.36+3.4%
1-3 ✓
6.0%@ 14.09+2.9%
2-1
5.2%@ 11.44+1.3%
Shrewsbury goals ↓
Barnet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
10%
10%
6.3%
2.9%
1
4.8%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.8%
2
2.8%
5.2%
4.7%
2.9%
1.3%
3
0.9%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shrewsbury goals (down), columns = Barnet goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Shrewsbury is 0.59 points worse than Barnet in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Shrewsbury is 0.61 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Shrewsbury is 0.35 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Shrewsbury is 12.4 percentage points worse than Barnet in terms of average possession (44% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shrewsbury
For 3.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnet
For 6.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shrewsbury
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.1
7.9
4.3
4.1
4.5
22.7
21.9
23.3
vs Stronger (8)
7.4
9.3
6.2
3.8
3.0
4.2
22.5
22.7
22.4
vs Similar (41)
8.5
9.1
7.9
4.2
4.3
4.1
22.5
21.7
23.1
vs Weaker (1)
17.0
-
17.0
14.0
-
14.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
36%
45%
29%
58%
55%
61%
62%
64%
61%
% under line
64%
55%
71%
42%
45%
39%
38%
36%
39%
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
23.8
23.6
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
23.8
23.6
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
52%
58%
50%
40%
60%
65%
56%
75%
% under line
45%
48%
42%
50%
60%
40%
35%
44%
25%
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shrewsbury or Draw✗ Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.82
Edge
-5.4%
18%
25%
57%
covers Shrewsbury + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Shrewsbury or Barnet✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.1%
18%
25%
57%
covers Shrewsbury + Barnet
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Barnet✓ Hit
81.9%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
+6.5%
18%
25%
57%
covers Draw + Barnet
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.6%
@ 1.44-8.6%
Under
44.4%
@ 2.60+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.73
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 3.18-9.6%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.31+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 8.47-6.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.05+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.00
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Shrewsbury over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 22.50-3.3%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Barnet over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.3%
@ 1.19+1.6%
Under
20.7%
@ 4.16-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Barnet over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.7%
@ 1.97-0.4%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.76+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Barnet over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.1%
@ 4.12-1.5%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.20+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Pinnacle
4.11
Superbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Barnet over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 9.62-2.2%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
11.00
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.10
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shrewsbury, so a minus line means Shrewsbury give that many goals of a start and Barnet receive them. At -1, Shrewsbury must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shrewsbury win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Barnet
Shrewsbury -2
1.4%
@ 21.67-2.9%
Draw -2
4.5%
@ 11.27-3.7%
Barnet +2
94.1%
@ 1.06+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.80
Away
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Barnet
Shrewsbury -1
5.9%
@ 8.23-4.9%
Draw -1
12.2%
@ 5.30-4.7%
Barnet +1
81.9%
@ 1.24+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
Away
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Handicap +1 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Barnet
Shrewsbury +1
45.7%
@ 1.81-3.5%
Draw +1
24.7%
@ 3.60-0.1%
Barnet -1
29.5%
@ 3.45+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.50
Away
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Handicap +2 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Draw
Shrewsbury +2
70.5%
@ 1.25-0.8%
Draw +2
17.1%
@ 5.38+0.5%
Barnet -2
12.4%
@ 7.33+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.67
0.23
0.38
0.24
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (25)
0.20
0.52
0.27
0.45
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.53
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.37+2.5%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 2.87-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.0%
@ 2.76-0.6%
Under 1.5
67.0%
@ 1.40+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.77
William Hil
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Betano
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.9%
@ 7.06-1.2%
Under 2.5
88.1%
@ 1.07+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 2.45-0.2%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.49+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 8.76-2.7%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.40
1xBet
9.40
Superbet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 35.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.0%
@ 1.82-0.7%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.88+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
10Bet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Barnet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 5.20+0.2%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.13-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Barnet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 14.00-2.9%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
0.85
0.53
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.76
0.73
0.91
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.2%
Under 1.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
94.1%
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
81.9%
1.24
Betano
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
81.9%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
80.4%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.19
Betano
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.20
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.9%
1.29
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.4%
1.27
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
70.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.37
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.36
+2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Shrewsbury
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison40%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom Anderson67%
Arkell Jude-Boyd50%
Joe Gbode40%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd20%
Kevin Berkoe20%
Thomas Sang0%
J. Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Davison20%
Isaac Fletcher20%
Joe Gbode20%
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Barnet
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Lakin50%
K. Tshimanga50%
J. Reeves33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
Brandon Comley0%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brandon Comley33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
C. Lakin25%
M. Cox25%
Z. Williams25%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Tshimanga50%
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Shrewsbury and Barnet have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Shrewsbury and Barnet have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Shrewsbury and Barnet have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Shrewsbury's defence is €1m less valuable than Barnet's (€2m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Accrington
Port Vale