Shturmi vs Aragvi Dusheti Result & Analysis

Shturmi’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 0.85 goals on average against similar opposition, while their attack averages 1.08. Aragvi Dusheti, on the road, has a comparable profile, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.93. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with a 34% chance of a draw, 32% for a home win and 34% for an away win, making a draw the favourite outcome. The expected total is 1.9 goals, and the most likely single score is 0-0 at 15.8%. The Under 3.5 goal selection has an 86.9% chance of success. Shturmi have struggled recently, dropping two straight defeats before a win and a draw, while Aragvi Dusheti’s last five include a draw and two losses. The match is expected to stay close, with both sides likely to keep the scoreline tight.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, a draw, failed to materialise. Shturmi edged Aragvi Dusheti 2-1 for a home win, extending their recent form after two straight defeats. The model had picked a draw with a 34% probability, but that call was wrong. Its other suggestion, Under 3.5 goals, hit with an 86.9% probability, as the match produced only three goals. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the home side’s victory, while the away team’s form, coming off a draw, was not enough to overturn the result. The model’s predictions were mixed: one hit, one missed.