PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Sioni vs Gareji Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2023
Time: 13:30
Final 2-0
Sioni
Sioni
Vs
39%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Sioni and Gareji is a tight one, with neither side clearly dominating the other. The model favours a home win, giving Sioni a 39% chance, a draw 26%, and Gareji 35%. The expected total of goals is three, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability. Sioni, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded, while Gareji, on the road, averages 2.0 scored and only 0.85 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 81.5% probability. Both teams are on a two-game winning streak, each having recently beaten a comparable side 2-1. This match is poised for a balanced, low-scoring affair with the home side just edging ahead.

Results analysis

The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Sioni secured a 2-0 victory over Gareji, extending their two-game winning streak. The model had chosen a Home win with a 39% probability, and that call was correct. The suggested pick “Over 1.5” came in with an 81.5% chance, and it hit. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s overall accuracy. The match saw Sioni’s home form noted as a 2-game winning run, while Gareji also entered on a similar streak, yet the home side prevailed. The model’s selections largely aligned with the outcome, underscoring its reliability in this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sioni win✓ Hit
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SioniSioni

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W02L21W13L00D41W24L11D02L21WH·LOK01/05A·GAR05/05H·WIT11/05A·KOL15/05H·MER19/05H·KOL23/05A·DIN31/05H·MER04/06A·SPA09/06A·LOK03/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.471.801.270.931.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.581.622.081.311.002.00
vs Weaker (6)0.500.830.001.000.750.75
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W20W20W51W32W32W22D30W01L51WA·MER01/05H·SIO05/05A·DIN11/05H·MER15/05A·SPA19/05H·LOK23/05A·KOL31/05A·WIT04/06H·KOL10/06H·MER03/08
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.130.872.380.811.860.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)2.210.832.380.812.000.85
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
2-0 ✓
5.9%
Sioni goals ↓
Gareji goals →
01234
06.0%6.1%5.3%2.6%1.0%
16.4%12%8.2%4.0%1.5%
25.9%8.6%6.3%3.1%1.1%
33.0%4.4%3.3%1.6%0.6%
41.2%1.7%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sioni goals (down), columns = Gareji goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kolkheti Poti
2.14
Gareji
2.11
Spaeri
1.83
Sioni
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.11
Merani Martvili
0.72
Merani Tbilisi
0.39
Sioni is 0.47 points worse than Gareji in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 2.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.44
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.97
Kolkheti Poti
1.94
Sioni
1.89
Spaeri
1.89
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
WIT Georgia
1.44
Kolkheti Khobi
1.22
Merani Martvili
0.94
Merani Tbilisi
0.81
Sioni is 0.56 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 2.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kolkheti Poti
0.78
Gareji
1.06
Sioni
1.28
Spaeri
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.58
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.61
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.61
Merani Martvili
2.33
Merani Tbilisi
3.06
Sioni is 0.22 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SioniSioni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D01L00D20W12L00D01L01LH·LOK01/05A·GAR05/05H·WIT11/05A·KOL15/05H·MER19/05H·KOL23/05A·DIN31/05H·MER04/06A·SPA09/06A·LOK03/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.930.330.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.790.501.080.310.450.73
vs Weaker (6)0.170.330.000.500.250.25
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D00D50W10W12L11D00D00D10WA·MER01/05H·SIO05/05A·DIN11/05H·MER15/05A·SPA19/05H·LOK23/05A·KOL31/05A·WIT04/06H·KOL10/06H·MER03/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.330.880.380.570.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.760.340.880.380.620.31
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SioniSioni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L21W12L00D21W12L11D01L20WH·LOK01/05A·GAR05/05H·WIT11/05A·KOL15/05H·MER19/05H·KOL23/05A·DIN31/05H·MER04/06A·SPA09/06A·LOK03/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.000.870.930.531.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.791.121.001.000.551.27
vs Weaker (6)0.330.500.000.500.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W20W20W01L22D20W11D30W01L41WA·MER01/05H·SIO05/05A·DIN11/05H·MER15/05A·SPA19/05H·LOK23/05A·KOL31/05A·WIT04/06H·KOL10/06H·MER03/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.531.500.441.290.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.450.481.500.441.380.54
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (8)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
SIO wins
0
Draws
2
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sioni vs Gareji · H/A from SIO
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/23AGareji Vs SIO2-0
05/03/23HSIO Vs Gareji0-1

SioniSioni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/23ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SIO1-2
09/06/23ASpaeri Vs SIO2-0
04/06/23HSIO Vs Merani Martvili1-1
31/05/23ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs SIO4-2
23/05/23HSIO Vs Kolkheti Khobi4-1
19/05/23HSIO Vs Merani Tbilisi0-0
15/05/23AKolkheti Poti Vs SIO3-1
11/05/23HSIO Vs WIT Georgia2-1
05/05/23AGareji Vs SIO2-0
01/05/23HSIO Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-1

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/23HGAR Vs Merani Tbilisi5-1
10/06/23HGAR Vs Kolkheti Poti0-1
04/06/23AWIT Georgia Vs GAR0-3
31/05/23AKolkheti Khobi Vs GAR2-2
23/05/23HGAR Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-2
19/05/23ASpaeri Vs GAR2-3
15/05/23HGAR Vs Merani Martvili5-1
11/05/23ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs GAR0-2
05/05/23HGAR Vs Sioni2-0
01/05/23AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR1-6

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sioni
Sioni
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.22
HomeWWDWD1.42
AwayLLLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%29%
AVG goals2.762.772.75
Over 1.5 %76%65%88%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.241.461.00
Conceded1.521.311.75
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet22%31%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.70
HomeWWWLW1.96
AwayWWWDW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals2.922.962.88
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.802.121.48
Conceded1.120.841.40
BTTS44%56%32%
Clean Sheet40%40%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3677
64%
2.1
7028+42
2.7
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.8
-
2GarejiGareji3676
64%
2.1
8838+50
3.5
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3SpaeriSpaeri3666
56%
1.8
6848+20
3.2
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.3
-
4SioniSioni3659
50%
1.6
6846+22
3.2
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
5Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3652
44%
1.4
7158+13
3.6
86%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6WIT GeorgiaWIT Georgia3648
36%
1.3
5257-5
3.0
81%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
7Kolkheti KhobiKolkheti Khobi3646
33%
1.3
4452-8
2.7
81%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3640
33%
1.1
5558-3
3.1
86%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
9Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3626
17%
0.7
3484-50
3.3
75%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
10Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi3614
3%
0.4
29110-81
3.9
92%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.1
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches