PythiaFootballBETA
This match is expected to favour SK Beveren, who have recently come off a defeat, with a recent-form note that may impact their performance. The home side has a 60% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 15% chance of losing to Kortrijk. The model predicts a home win as the most likely result.
The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 11.8%. SK Beveren have a strong home record, scoring 2.25 goals on average and conceding 0.75. In contrast, Kortrijk's away form is less impressive, scoring 1.56 goals and conceding 1.0 against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, which has a 75.3% chance of occurring, and Under 3.5, which has a 72.5% chance of occurring. The home win percentage is 60%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
The result was a 1-0 win for SK Beveren, extending their run of form. The model's call of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 60%. The model's selection, a home win, was the favourite, as expected.
The model suggested an Over 1.5 total, which missed, and an Under 3.5 total, which hit. The probability of the Over 1.5 total was 75.3%, while the Under 3.5 total had a 72.5% chance of occurring.
SK Beveren| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.40 | 0.83 | 2.07 | 0.73 | 2.73 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.38 | 0.95 | 2.00 | 0.90 | 2.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.40 | 0.20 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Kortrijk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.03 | 2.31 | 0.81 | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.83 | 1.04 | 2.42 | 0.83 | 1.18 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Kortrijk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
SK BeverenKortrijkSK Beveren| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 23.1 | 22.1 | 23.9 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 11.2 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 19.2 | 17.3 | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (37) | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 24.0 | 24.1 | 23.9 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 8.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 17.5 | 23.3 |
| % over line | 46% | 59% | 35% | 40% | 32% | 48% | 54% | 47% | 60% |
| % under line | 54% | 41% | 65% | 60% | 68% | 52% | 46% | 53% | 40% |
Kortrijk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 24.7 | 25.5 | 23.9 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 19.2 | 22.8 |
| vs Similar (37) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 25.7 | 27.5 | 24.2 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 10.5 | 10.5 | - | 1.8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 25.5 | 25.5 | - |
| % over line | 54% | 58% | 50% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 62% | 63% | 60% |
| % under line | 46% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 38% | 37% | 40% |
SK Beveren| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
Kortrijk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.81 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.74 | 0.48 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
SK Beveren| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.43 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 1.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.52 | 0.52 | 1.30 | 0.40 | 1.73 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Kortrijk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.63 | 1.50 | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.09 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 11/04/21 | H | 3-4 | |
| 09/08/20 | A | 1-3 | |
| 12/02/20 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/11/19 | A | 1-3 | |
| 23/02/19 | H | 2-6 | |
| 31/10/18 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/12/17 | A | 4-1 |
SK Beveren| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 15/02/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 08/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/01/26 | A | 2-4 |
Kortrijk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/02/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 27/01/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/01/26 | H | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | SK Beveren | 32 | 88 | 88% | 2.8 | 74 | 23 | +51 | 3.0 | 84% | 62% | 31% | 10.0 | 55% | 3.8 | 55% | 22.4 | 45% | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 | Kortrijk | 31 | 64 | 65% | 2.1 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 2.9 | 74% | 48% | 39% | 11.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 57% | 26.7 | 81% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 3 |  Beerschot VA | 32 | 64 | 59% | 2.0 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.1 | 88% | 27.2 | 76% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 4 |  Lommel United | 32 | 53 | 47% | 1.7 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 3.3 | 84% | 59% | 41% | 9.9 | 43% | 3.9 | 57% | 24.7 | 70% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 55% |
| 5 |  Liège | 32 | 53 | 50% | 1.7 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 2.6 | 81% | 44% | 22% | 9.5 | 39% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.7 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 6 |  Patro Eisden | 32 | 51 | 44% | 1.6 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 25% | 8.3 | 27% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.4 | 85% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 38% |
| 7 |  AS Eupen | 32 | 47 | 38% | 1.5 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 2.5 | 66% | 47% | 25% | 10.0 | 52% | 4.0 | 50% | 25.7 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 8 |  Lokeren-Temse | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 2.9 | 78% | 53% | 38% | 11.4 | 62% | 5.4 | 75% | 29.2 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 9 |  KAA Gent II | 32 | 41 | 38% | 1.3 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 2.9 | 84% | 56% | 38% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 61% | 26.3 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 10 |  K. Lierse S.K. | 32 | 38 | 31% | 1.2 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 2.4 | 62% | 41% | 19% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.2 | 79% | 27.6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  RWDM | 32 | 36 | 28% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.2 | 84% | 59% | 47% | 8.2 | 24% | 4.3 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 12 |  Seraing United | 31 | 35 | 26% | 1.1 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 35% | 8.1 | 36% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.1 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 41% |
| 13 |  Francs Borains | 32 | 35 | 28% | 1.1 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 2.5 | 72% | 41% | 34% | 10.3 | 58% | 4.7 | 65% | 25.8 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 14 |  RSC Anderlecht II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.2 | 78% | 62% | 44% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 29.0 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 52% |
| 15 |  KRC Genk II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 3.2 | 84% | 62% | 41% | 9.9 | 76% | 3.6 | 62% | 25.4 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 16 |  Club Brugge II | 32 | 21 | 16% | 0.7 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.8 | 75% | 56% | 31% | 8.8 | 33% | 4.1 | 60% | 28.2 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 17 |  Olympic Charleroi | 32 | 16 | 9% | 0.5 | 26 | 68 | -42 | 2.9 | 78% | 59% | 31% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.0 | 55% | 24.4 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 48% |