Raków Czestochowa are favored to win away from home in this Ekstraklasa match, with the model predicting an away win. The recent form of both teams has been drawing matches, with Slask Wroclaw coming off a draw against Cracovia Krakow and Raków Czestochowa also drawing against Hammarby FF.
The probabilities for the match result are: Slask Wroclaw winning 31%, a draw at 28%, and Raków Czestochowa winning 42%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.1%.
Raków Czestochowa have averaged 2 goals scored and 1.25 conceded when playing away against weaker opponents. Slask Wroclaw have averaged 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded when playing at home. The model's selection is Raków Czestochowa to win away, with a 42% probability. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals (77.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (76.2%), and Over 3.5 cards (72.4%), with the latter having an edge of 7%.
Results analysis
Slask Wroclaw pulled off a stunning upset at home, defeating Raków Czestochowa 2-1. This win extends their run of draws and losses, having come off a 0-0 stalemate against Cracovia Krakow. The pre-match favourite, Raków Czestochowa, failed to come through, with the model's selection of an away win proving incorrect. The model had given Raków Czestochowa a 42% chance of winning, but they ultimately fell short.
The model's selection of an away win was not the only selection that missed the mark. Raków Czestochowa also failed to live up to the model's prediction of over 3.5 cards, which had a 72.4% probability. However, the model did correctly predict over 1.5 goals (77.5% probability) and over 21.5 fouls (76.2% probability), both of which hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slask Wroclaw win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.79
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.00
Dafabet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Betano
2.82
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.31
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Raków Częstochowa win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.42
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.48
Dafabet
2.47
10Bet
2.46
Bet365
2.45
William Hil
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slask Wroclaw
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.47
1.77
1.00
2.12
1.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
3.33
-
-
1.33
3.33
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.33
1.70
1.20
2.27
1.45
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.00
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.50
0.88
1.71
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.18
1.60
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
1.00
1.45
0.82
2.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Slask Wroclaw) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.28+4.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 3.46-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.78
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.89+2.5%
Under 2.5
47.7%
@ 1.87-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.90
Under
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.96
Betfair
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
@ 3.20+1.0%
Under 3.5
69.9%
@ 1.31-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Unibet
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
@ 1.69+2.0%
No
43.0%
@ 2.06-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
888Sport
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.08+5.8%
1-2
9.0%@ 8.69+3.8%
0-1
8.3%@ 7.92+2.6%
2-1 ✓
7.5%@ 9.46+2.8%
0-0
7.5%@ 9.92+3.0%
0-2
7.1%@ 11.25+3.1%
1-0
6.8%@ 8.58+1.5%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.20+2.0%
Slask Wroclaw goals ↓
Raków Częstochowa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.3%
7.1%
3.6%
1.3%
1
6.8%
13%
9.0%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.0%
7.5%
5.7%
2.8%
1.1%
3
2.1%
3.2%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slask Wroclaw goals (down), columns = Raków Częstochowa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
1.76
Gornik Zabrze
1.65
Jagiellonia
1.65
Raków Częstochowa
1.62
GKS Katowice
1.47
Legia Warszawa
1.44
Zaglebie Lubin
1.41
Wisla Plock
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.32
Radomiak Radom
1.29
Wisla Krakow
1.27
Korona Kielce
1.26
Motor Lublin
1.26
Cracovia Krakow
1.24
Widzew Łódź
1.24
Wieczysta Kraków
1.23
Piast Gliwice
1.21
Slask Wroclaw
1.12
Slask Wroclaw is 0.49 points worse than Raków Częstochowa in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lech Poznan
1.82
Jagiellonia
1.65
Radomiak Radom
1.53
GKS Katowice
1.50
Raków Częstochowa
1.50
Gornik Zabrze
1.47
Pogon Szczecin
1.38
Motor Lublin
1.35
Zaglebie Lubin
1.32
Wisla Krakow
1.27
Wieczysta Kraków
1.24
Piast Gliwice
1.24
Legia Warszawa
1.24
Widzew Łódź
1.21
Korona Kielce
1.18
Cracovia Krakow
1.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.13
Wisla Plock
1.00
Slask Wroclaw is 0.37 goals worse than Raków Częstochowa in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
1.09
Zaglebie Lubin
1.12
Gornik Zabrze
1.12
Wisla Plock
1.12
Korona Kielce
1.18
Raków Częstochowa
1.18
Widzew Łódź
1.21
Jagiellonia
1.21
Cracovia Krakow
1.24
Lech Poznan
1.32
GKS Katowice
1.32
Piast Gliwice
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.44
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Wieczysta Kraków
1.51
Radomiak Radom
1.56
Motor Lublin
1.56
Slask Wroclaw
1.66
Slask Wroclaw is 0.48 goals worse than Raków Częstochowa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Lech Poznan
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Raków Częstochowa
54%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Pogon Szczecin
52%
Gornik Zabrze
52%
Motor Lublin
51%
Radomiak Radom
51%
Cracovia Krakow
50%
Widzew Łódź
49%
Korona Kielce
46%
GKS Katowice
46%
Wisla Plock
43%
Zaglebie Lubin
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slask Wroclaw
For 6.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 14.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raków Częstochowa
For 3.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 14.7 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slask Wroclaw
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.6
11.3
1.2
1.3
1.1
24.7
23.6
25.6
vs Stronger (11)
12.9
13.7
12.2
2.2
2.6
1.8
24.7
24.3
25.0
vs Similar (32)
10.4
10.0
10.8
1.0
1.2
0.8
24.5
23.0
26.0
vs Weaker (7)
10.0
-
10.0
0.6
0.0
1.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
75%
86%
67%
10%
12%
8%
88%
86%
89%
% under line
25%
14%
33%
90%
88%
92%
12%
14%
11%
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
7.7
8.2
4.6
4.2
5.1
25.4
24.8
25.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
8.6
8.3
8.9
4.8
4.2
5.4
25.5
24.1
27.0
vs Weaker (33)
7.6
7.4
7.9
4.5
4.2
4.9
25.3
25.2
25.3
% over line
29%
28%
30%
68%
58%
79%
77%
80%
74%
% under line
71%
72%
70%
32%
42%
21%
23%
20%
26%
This opponent (Slask Wroclaw) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
13.5
Zaglebie Lubin
10.6
Pogon Szczecin
10.6
Gornik Zabrze
10.5
Motor Lublin
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.2
GKS Katowice
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.1
Slask Wroclaw
10.1
Radomiak Radom
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Jagiellonia
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Legia Warszawa
9.5
Wieczysta Kraków
9.0
Widzew Łódź
9.0
Raków Częstochowa
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wieczysta Kraków
6.5
Widzew Łódź
5.2
Motor Lublin
5.1
Raków Częstochowa
4.9
Radomiak Radom
4.9
Slask Wroclaw
4.8
Cracovia Krakow
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.5
Zaglebie Lubin
4.3
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Wisla Plock
4.1
Korona Kielce
4.0
Pogon Szczecin
4.0
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.8
Piast Gliwice
3.8
GKS Katowice
3.7
Wisla Krakow
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wieczysta Kraków
29.0
Radomiak Radom
27.7
Jagiellonia
26.4
Widzew Łódź
26.2
Legia Warszawa
25.8
Motor Lublin
25.4
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Korona Kielce
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
25.1
Slask Wroclaw
24.9
Piast Gliwice
24.6
Zaglebie Lubin
24.6
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
Lech Poznan
23.3
GKS Katowice
23.1
Gornik Zabrze
22.5
Wisla Plock
22.5
Wisla Krakow
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.3%
@ 1.72-6.4%
Under 9.5
52.7%
@ 2.00+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.7%
@ 1.38+3.0%
Under 3.5
31.3%
@ 2.65-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.65
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.3%
Under 21.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slask Wroclaw
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.69
0.46
1.12
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
-
-
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.62
0.60
0.60
1.18
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.56
0.25
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.27
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.42
0.45
0.27
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Slask Wroclaw) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slask Wroclaw over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.5%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.37
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
+8.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (29)
€62m
LP (31)
€53m
RC (33)
€48m
LW (35)
€40m
CK (38)
€33m
GZ (28)
€29m
WŁ (24)
€25m
PS (31)
€22m
WP (33)
€19m
ML (28)
€18m
ZL (28)
€18m
RR (31)
€16m
KK (30)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
GK (33)
€11m
PG (27)
€10m
SW (22)
€7m
Slask Wroclaw's squad is €41m less valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€7m vs €48m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (17)
€43m
LP (14)
€21m
RC (11)
€18m
GZ (13)
€17m
WŁ (12)
€15m
CK (16)
€15m
LW (13)
€12m
PS (15)
€11m
ML (12)
€10m
ZL (10)
€10m
RR (13)
€7m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PG (13)
€4m
WP (9)
€4m
KK (10)
€4m
GK (12)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Slask Wroclaw's attack is €16m less valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€2m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (13)
€18m
LP (5)
€8m
LW (10)
€7m
WP (12)
€6m
KK (10)
€6m
GK (11)
€5m
WŁ (4)
€5m
ZL (7)
€4m
GZ (3)
€4m
SW (9)
€3m
CK (7)
€3m
RR (7)
€2m
ML (5)
€2m
PS (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
JAG (3)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
PG (2)
€1m
Slask Wroclaw's midfield is €15m less valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€3m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€23m
LW (12)
€21m
JAG (9)
€17m
CK (15)
€15m
RC (9)
€12m
PS (12)
€9m
WP (12)
€9m
GZ (12)
€7m
RR (11)
€7m
KK (10)
€7m
ML (11)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
PG (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
WŁ (8)
€5m
ZL (11)
€4m
GK (10)
€3m
SW (8)
€2m
Slask Wroclaw's defence is €10m less valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€2m vs €12m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Krakow
Jagiellonia
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
GKS Katowice
Wieczysta Kraków
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom