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Slonim vs Orsha Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2025
Time: 13:30
Final 4-1
Slonim
Slonim
Vs
35%
24%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Slonim’s recent form has been uneven, a 1-2 loss to Orsha leaving the home side rattled, while Orsha arrives on a win and a higher average of 2.0 goals scored per match. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.5 goals, most likely totaling three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.3%. The odds favour an away win at 41%, with a home win at 35% and a draw at 24%. The home side has been solid defensively, conceding none on average against similar opposition, but the away side’s defense has been porous, conceding 3.25 goals on average. The model’s selection includes an over 1.5 goal pick at 86.9%. The match is expected to see both teams score, and the predicted outcome is an away victory.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, an away win, did not materialise as Slonim turned the tables for a 4-1 home victory, extending their recent run of wins and losses. The model had given the away side a 41% chance of triumph, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 86.9% probability, while the predicted most likely total of three goals, at 22%, was missed. The final score of 4-1 was a decisive home win, and the model’s pick was incorrect. The match delivered a clear upset, with Slonim’s performance outweighing expectations.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Slonim win✓ Hit
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L12L13L06L01L11D03L12L24L21WA·NIV28/06H·UNI19/07H·ABF26/07H·BAR02/08A·GOM08/08H·VOL16/08A·OST24/08H·MIN30/08A·LID05/09H·LOK13/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.732.230.871.730.602.73
vs Stronger (26)0.732.420.772.000.692.85
vs Similar (4)0.751.001.500.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-615L12L26L05L11D14L02L22D04L03LA·VOL05/07H·FC 18/07A·OST26/07H·BAT02/08H·MIN08/08H·NIV16/08A·LID23/08H·OSI30/08A·LOK05/09H·UNI13/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.701.332.401.533.00
vs Stronger (14)1.212.431.432.141.002.71
vs Similar (16)1.622.941.252.622.003.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.1%
Under 2.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.5%
No
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
5.1%
0-1
4.7%
2-0
4.3%
Slonim goals ↓
Orsha goals →
01234
04.1%4.7%5.1%3.0%1.4%
14.3%10%8.4%5.1%2.3%
24.3%7.8%7.0%4.2%1.9%
32.4%4.3%3.9%2.3%1.0%
41.0%1.8%1.6%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slonim goals (down), columns = Orsha goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
Slonim is 0.13 points worse than Orsha in terms of average points per game (0.61 vs 0.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
Slonim is 0.33 goals worse than Orsha in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
Slonim is 0.40 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 2.74).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SlonimSlonim

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L03L00D01L02L10W11D20WA·NIV28/06H·UNI19/07H·ABF26/07H·BAR02/08A·GOM08/08H·VOL16/08A·OST24/08H·MIN30/08A·LID05/09H·LOK13/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.900.330.730.331.07
vs Stronger (26)0.381.000.380.850.381.15
vs Similar (4)0.000.250.000.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D22D03L10W12L01L01L00D00DA·VOL05/07H·FC 18/07A·OST26/07H·BAT02/08H·MIN08/08H·NIV16/08A·LID23/08H·OSI30/08A·LOK05/09H·UNI13/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.070.531.070.531.07
vs Stronger (14)0.640.790.860.710.430.86
vs Similar (16)0.441.310.251.380.621.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SlonimSlonim

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L02L11D03L01L10W01L02L13L01LA·NIV28/06H·UNI19/07H·ABF26/07H·BAR02/08A·GOM08/08H·VOL16/08A·OST24/08H·MIN30/08A·LID05/09H·LOK13/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.330.531.000.271.67
vs Stronger (26)0.351.420.381.150.311.69
vs Similar (4)0.750.751.500.000.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L12L04L02L01L02L01L21W04L03LA·VOL05/07H·FC 18/07A·OST26/07H·BAT02/08H·MIN08/08H·NIV16/08A·LID23/08H·OSI30/08A·LOK05/09H·UNI13/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.630.801.331.001.93
vs Stronger (14)0.571.640.571.430.571.86
vs Similar (16)1.191.621.001.251.382.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
SLO wins
0
Draws
3
ORS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Slonim vs Orsha · H/A from SLO
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/25AOrsha Vs SLO3-0
01/11/24HSLO Vs Orsha2-0
07/07/24AOrsha Vs SLO2-0
09/09/23HSLO Vs Orsha2-1
07/05/23AOrsha Vs SLO1-2
12/11/22AOrsha Vs SLO4-0
23/07/22HSLO Vs Orsha3-2

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HSLO Vs Lokomotiv Gomel2-1
05/09/25ALida Vs SLO4-2
30/08/25HSLO Vs Minsk II1-2
24/08/25AOstrovets FC Vs SLO3-0
16/08/25HSLO Vs Volna1-1
08/08/25AGomel II Vs SLO1-0
02/08/25HSLO Vs Baranovichi0-6
26/07/25HSLO Vs ABFF U191-3
19/07/25HSLO Vs Uni Minsk1-2
28/06/25ANiva Vs SLO2-1

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HORS Vs Uni Minsk0-3
05/09/25ALokomotiv Gomel Vs ORS4-0
30/08/25HORS Vs Osipovichy2-2
23/08/25ALida Vs ORS2-0
16/08/25HORS Vs Niva1-4
08/08/25HORS Vs Minsk II1-1
02/08/25HORS Vs BATE II0-5
26/07/25AOstrovets FC Vs ORS6-2
18/07/25HORS Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev1-2
05/07/25AVolna Vs ORS5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Slonim
Slonim
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW0.70
HomeLLDLW1.00
AwayLLLLL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%24%12%
AVG goals2.862.523.20
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %34%24%44%
Scored0.740.920.56
Conceded2.121.602.64
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.14
HomeLDLDL1.08
AwayWLLLL1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%27%33%
AVG goals3.503.044.00
Over 1.5 %86%85%88%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %44%35%54%
Scored1.381.231.54
Conceded2.121.812.46
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet20%19%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BaranovichiBaranovichi3474
68%
2.2
7529+46
3.1
85%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3467
59%
2.0
5937+22
2.8
85%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.1
-
3Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3464
53%
1.9
5634+22
2.6
68%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
4BelshinaBelshina3463
56%
1.9
6440+24
3.1
85%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
5LidaLida3459
56%
1.7
7444+30
3.5
85%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.21.3
-
6BumpromBumprom3459
47%
1.7
5636+20
2.7
85%
44%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.1
-
7NivaNiva3455
44%
1.6
6856+12
3.6
85%
68%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.01.6
-
8BATE IIBATE II3453
44%
1.6
7052+18
3.6
88%
65%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
9Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3451
47%
1.5
5648+8
3.1
82%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.4
-
10Minsk IIMinsk II3451
44%
1.5
4947+2
2.8
68%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
11VolnaVolna3448
38%
1.4
6555+10
3.5
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.6
-
12ABFF U19ABFF U193442
32%
1.2
4449-5
2.7
76%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
13Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3440
29%
1.2
3440-6
2.2
65%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.01.2
-
14Uni MinskUni Minsk3436
29%
1.1
5472-18
3.7
94%
76%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.62.1
-
15Gomel IIGomel II3428
24%
0.8
3483-49
3.4
79%
68%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
16OrshaOrsha3425
21%
0.7
4293-51
4.0
94%
79%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.7
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy3321
15%
0.6
3977-38
3.5
97%
70%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.3
-
18SlonimSlonim3320
18%
0.6
3077-47
3.2
91%
70%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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