Slonim’s recent form has been shaky, with a last-five record of LWLWL and a 1-2 loss to Orsha, while Shakhter Soligorsk is still recovering from four straight defeats, having dropped 1-2 to Lida. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 39% chance, a draw at 24%, and a home win at 37%. The expected total goals is 3.6, suggesting a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.9% probability. Slonim, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.13 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, whereas Shakhter, on the road against a weaker opponent, scores only 0.67 goals and concedes 2.0. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.1%), Under 6.5 (93.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.2%), Over 1.5 (87.9%), Under 5.5 (85.0%), Away over 0.5 goals (83.4%), and Home over 0.5 goals (82.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slonim win
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slonim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.27
1.22
2.11
1.00
2.50
vs Stronger (25)
1.16
2.36
1.13
2.20
1.20
2.60
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.73
0.79
1.79
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.57
0.73
1.64
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.0%
Under 2.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.0%
No
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
4.8%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
Slonim goals ↓
Shakhter Soligorsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
4.2%
4.6%
2.7%
1.2%
1
4.1%
9.9%
8.1%
4.8%
2.2%
2
4.5%
8.0%
7.1%
4.3%
1.9%
3
2.6%
4.7%
4.2%
2.5%
1.1%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slonim goals (down), columns = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Slonim is 0.41 points better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Slonim is 0.09 goals better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Slonim is 1.18 goals better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 2.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Slonim or Draw
61.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
24%
38%
covers Slonim + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slonim or Shakhter Soligorsk
76.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
24%
38%
covers Slonim + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
62.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
24%
38%
covers Draw + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Slonim over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5
Over
83.3%
Under
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Slonim, so a minus line means Slonim give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Soligorsk receive them. At -1, Slonim must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Slonim win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Slonim)
Slonim -2
8.6%
Draw -2
11.5%
Shakhter Soligorsk +2
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Slonim)
Slonim -1
20.0%
Draw -1
17.6%
Shakhter Soligorsk +1
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Slonim)
Slonim +1
61.5%
Draw +1
17.8%
Shakhter Soligorsk -1
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Slonim)
Slonim +2
79.4%
Draw +2
11.7%
Shakhter Soligorsk -2
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slonim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.72
0.94
0.33
0.92
vs Stronger (25)
0.52
1.04
0.60
1.07
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.29
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.65
0.18
0.73
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slonim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.33
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.58
vs Stronger (25)
0.64
1.32
0.53
1.13
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.91
0.55
0.91
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Smorgon
Volna
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
BATE II
Gomel II