The upcoming match between Slovan Ljubljana and Beltinci in the Slovenia 2nd SNL league is expected to be a closely contested affair with Beltinci's away win being the favoured result. This storyline is reinforced by Beltinci's recent form, where they have been on a 2-game winning run, contrasted with Slovan Ljubljana's recent struggles, having suffered 2 straight defeats.
Beltinci's away win is forecasted with a 49% probability, while Slovan Ljubljana's home win and draw probabilities stand at 24% and 27% respectively. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability. Slovan Ljubljana's home form has seen them score an average of 1 goal per game and concede 2.2 goals, while Beltinci's away form has seen them score 1.91 goals and concede 0.45 goals per game against a weaker opponent.
The model selects Over 1.5 goals with a 76.6% probability, and Under 3.5 goals with a 71.1% probability. The home win percentage is 24%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 49%.
Results analysis
A stunning upset in the Slovenian 2. SNL, as Slovan Ljubljana's recent form storyline came to an abrupt end. The win extends their run, but it was the home team who took the spoils, defeating Beltinci 3-1. The pre-match favourite was far from it, with the model predicting an away win for Beltinci, a call that was unfortunately wrong. The model's selection had a 50% chance of success, but it was the home side who proved too strong. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks were mixed, with "Over 1.5" hitting and "Under 3.5" missing the mark, with probabilities of 76.7% and 70.9% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slovan Ljubljana win✓ Hit
23.0%
Avg Implied 15.8% · @ 5.67
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.09
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Dafabet
5.80
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 3.91
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Beltinci win✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied 61.2% · @ 1.46
Edge
-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Dafabet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slovan Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.77
1.27
1.60
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.33
0.60
2.80
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.58
1.67
1.11
0.70
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.73
2.00
0.87
1.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.82
0.77
2.09
0.73
1.55
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
1.75
1.25
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
@ 1.22+3.3%
Under 1.5
23.3%
@ 3.38-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
10Bet
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Unibet
3.35
Betano
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.75-1.0%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.91+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
@ 2.76-3.4%
Under 3.5
70.9%
@ 1.33+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.78
Pinnacle
2.77
Marathonbet
2.74
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.1%
@ 1.80+4.4%
No
45.9%
@ 1.78-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
William Hil
1.80
No
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 7.25+6.9%
0-1
9.8%@ 6.17+2.9%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.58+4.1%
0-2
9.1%@ 6.67+2.8%
0-0
7.7%@ 10.08+3.5%
2-1
6.1%@ 16.67+3.6%
1-0
5.8%@ 14.17+2.8%
1-3
5.3%@ 11.50+1.7%
Slovan Ljubljana goals ↓
Beltinci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
9.8%
9.1%
5.0%
2.1%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.7%
6.1%
5.1%
2.8%
1.2%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slovan Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Beltinci goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.93 points worse than Beltinci in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.77 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.90 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slovan Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.47
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.00
1.40
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.74
0.67
0.56
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.93
0.53
0.80
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.32
1.00
0.45
0.82
0.18
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slovan Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.00
0.60
1.40
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.84
1.00
0.56
0.40
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.07
0.33
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.45
1.09
0.27
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.7%
1.22
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
+3.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Slovan Ljubljana's squad is €1m less valuable than Beltinci's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Slovan Ljubljana and Beltinci have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Slovan Ljubljana and Beltinci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Slovan Ljubljana and Beltinci have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja