Slovan Ljubljana and Bistrica face each other in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are tight: 32% for a home victory, 27% for a draw, and 41% for Bistrica to take the points. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, but the most likely total is two, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability.
Slovan, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Bistrica, on the road, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against similar teams.
The model’s selections include a near-certain Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.0%), Under 5.5 (92.8%), Away +2 handicap (85.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.7%), and Under 4.5 (83.5%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slovan Ljubljana win
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slovan Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.77
1.47
1.47
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.38
1.20
2.40
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.60
1.67
1.11
0.91
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.80
1.47
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.38
1.54
1.62
1.08
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
Slovan Ljubljana goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.5%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.4%
13%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.1%
7.8%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.3%
3.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slovan Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.43 points worse than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.60 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.53 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Slovan Ljubljana or Draw
59.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Slovan Ljubljana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana or Bistrica
72.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Slovan Ljubljana + Bistrica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bistrica
67.7%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Bistrica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Slovan Ljubljana, so a minus line means Slovan Ljubljana give that many goals of a start and Bistrica receive them. At -1, Slovan Ljubljana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Slovan Ljubljana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana -2
5.2%
Draw -2
9.6%
Bistrica +2
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana -1
14.9%
Draw -1
17.4%
Bistrica +1
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana +1
59.4%
Draw +1
20.0%
Bistrica -1
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana +2
79.3%
Draw +2
12.5%
Bistrica -2
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slovan Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.73
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.78
0.56
0.36
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.69
0.54
0.85
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slovan Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.73
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.89
0.56
0.55
1.09
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.69
1.00
0.77
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Slovan Ljubljana and Bistrica have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Slovan Ljubljana and Bistrica have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Slovan Ljubljana and Bistrica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Slovan Ljubljana and Bistrica have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Jesenice
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja