PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Slovan Ljubljana vs Brežice Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 22:00
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
Vs
44%
28%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Brežice
Brežice
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Slovan Ljubljana are tipped to lift the win, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of a Brežice victory. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most probable single scoreline 1-1 at 13.1%. Home form shows Slovan scoring an average of one goal per game and conceding none against weaker opposition, while Brežice, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (94.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%), Home +2 handicap (88.1%) and Under 4.5 (85.9%). Slovan’s recent form, a three-game winning streak, contrasts with Brežice’s three straight defeats. The forecast points to a modest, evenly balanced match where Slovan’s home advantage and recent momentum should tip the scales.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Slovan Ljubljana win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brežice win
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L11D10W15L51W01L03L31W32W21WH·GOR25/04A·KRŠ30/04H·JES07/05A·DEK10/05H·TAB17/05A·BIS23/05A·DEK08/08H·BEL15/08A·KRK21/08H·ILI28/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.771.471.471.072.07
vs Stronger (8)1.122.381.202.401.002.33
vs Similar (20)1.251.601.671.110.912.00
vs Weaker (2)2.001.001.000.003.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BrežiceBrežice

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L12L01LA·BIL08/08H·DRE15/08A·TAB28/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.671.002.000.501.50
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.002.000.501.50
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.5%
Slovan Ljubljana goals ↓
Brežice goals →
01234
07.7%6.5%4.6%1.8%0.5%
18.9%13%7.1%2.8%0.8%
27.8%9.2%5.5%2.2%0.6%
34.0%4.7%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.5%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slovan Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Brežice goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.32 points worse than Brežice in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.34 goals worse than Brežice in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.32 goals worse than Brežice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Slovan Ljubljana or Draw
71.9%
Avg Implied -
44%
28%
28%
covers Slovan Ljubljana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana or Brežice
72.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
28%
28%
covers Slovan Ljubljana + Brežice
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Brežice
55.7%
Avg Implied -
44%
28%
28%
covers Draw + Brežice
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Slovan Ljubljana, so a minus line means Slovan Ljubljana give that many goals of a start and Brežice receive them. At -1, Slovan Ljubljana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Slovan Ljubljana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana -2
9.2%
Draw -2
13.7%
Brežice +2
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana -1
23.0%
Draw -1
21.4%
Brežice +1
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana +1
71.9%
Draw +1
16.2%
Brežice -1
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana +2
88.1%
Draw +2
8.1%
Brežice -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D10W14L10W00D02L30W11D21WH·GOR25/04A·KRŠ30/04H·JES07/05A·DEK10/05H·TAB17/05A·BIS23/05A·DEK08/08H·BEL15/08A·KRK21/08H·ILI28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.930.730.800.401.07
vs Stronger (8)0.621.500.601.400.671.67
vs Similar (20)0.550.750.780.560.360.91
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BrežiceBrežice

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W01LA·BIL08/08H·DRE15/08A·TAB28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.671.000.000.001.00
vs Stronger (3)0.330.671.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D00D01L41W01L01L01L21W00DH·GOR25/04A·KRŠ30/04H·JES07/05A·DEK10/05H·TAB17/05A·BIS23/05A·DEK08/08H·BEL15/08A·KRK21/08H·ILI28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.730.670.671.00
vs Stronger (8)0.500.880.601.000.330.67
vs Similar (20)0.700.850.890.560.551.09
vs Weaker (2)1.500.500.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BrežiceBrežice

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L00DA·BIL08/08H·DRE15/08A·TAB28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.000.002.000.500.50
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.002.000.500.50
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.3%-------
Under 6.597.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.7%-------
Under 5.594.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.2%-------
Home +2 handicap88.1%-------
Under 4.585.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals78.6%-------
Away +2 handicap77.0%-------
Over 1.576.9%-------
Home or Away72.4%-------
Home or Draw71.9%-------
Home +1 handicap71.9%-------
Under 3.570.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SL wins
0
Draws
0
BRE wins

Head-to-head

Slovan Ljubljana vs Brežice · H/A from SL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HSL Vs Ilirija2-1
21/08/26AKrka Vs SL2-3
15/08/26HSL Vs Beltinci3-1
08/08/26ADekani Vs SL3-0
23/05/26ABistrica Vs SL1-0
17/05/26HSL Vs Tabor Sežana5-1
10/05/26ADekani Vs SL5-1
07/05/26HSL Vs Jesenice1-0
30/04/26AKrško Vs SL1-1
25/04/26HSL Vs Gorica0-3

BrežiceBrežice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ATabor Sežana Vs BRE1-0
15/08/26HBRE Vs Dren Vrhnika1-2
08/08/26ABilje Vs BRE2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.26
HomeLWWWW1.60
AwayDLLLW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.802.842.76
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.221.441.00
Conceded1.581.401.76
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Brežice
Brežice
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLL0.00
HomeL0.00
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals2.333.002.00
Over 1.5 %67%100%50%
Over 2.5 %67%100%50%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.671.000.50
Conceded1.672.001.50
BTTS67%100%50%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches