Slovan Ljubljana are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a lively encounter, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. Slovan’s home form shows they average 1.2 goals for and 2.4 against against stronger opponents, while Dren Vrhnika, playing away against weaker teams, average 2.0 for and 1.0 against. Home win probability stands at 42%, draw 27%, and away win 31%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 5.5 (93.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.8%), Home +2 handicap (86.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.7%), and Under 4.5 (84.0%). Slovan are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Ilirija 2-1, while Dren Vrhnika return from a 0-2 loss to Bistrica. The match is likely to see Slovan hold the advantage, with a balanced goal output and a tight scoreline.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slovan Ljubljana win
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika win
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slovan Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.77
1.47
1.47
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.38
1.20
2.40
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.60
1.67
1.11
0.91
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dren Vrhnika) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dren Vrhnika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
Slovan Ljubljana goals ↓
Dren Vrhnika goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.3%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.8%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.0%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.7%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slovan Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Dren Vrhnika goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.32 points worse than Dren Vrhnika in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.34 goals worse than Dren Vrhnika in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Slovan Ljubljana is 0.32 goals worse than Dren Vrhnika in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Slovan Ljubljana or Draw
69.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Slovan Ljubljana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana or Dren Vrhnika
72.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Slovan Ljubljana + Dren Vrhnika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dren Vrhnika
57.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Draw + Dren Vrhnika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 1.5
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Slovan Ljubljana, so a minus line means Slovan Ljubljana give that many goals of a start and Dren Vrhnika receive them. At -1, Slovan Ljubljana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Slovan Ljubljana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana -2
8.7%
Draw -2
13.0%
Dren Vrhnika +2
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana -1
21.7%
Draw -1
20.5%
Dren Vrhnika +1
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana +1
69.3%
Draw +1
16.9%
Dren Vrhnika -1
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Slovan Ljubljana)
Slovan Ljubljana +2
86.2%
Draw +2
9.1%
Dren Vrhnika -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slovan Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.73
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.78
0.56
0.36
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dren Vrhnika) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dren Vrhnika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.4%
Under 0.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.9%
Under 1.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
Under 2.5
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slovan Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.73
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.89
0.56
0.55
1.09
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dren Vrhnika) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dren Vrhnika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.7%
Under 0.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.9%
Under 2.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →