Smorgon’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just under a goal per game, while FC Slutsk’s away form shows a slightly higher concession rate. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair, with a 48 % chance of a home win, 38 % draw and 14 % away win, making a home victory the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 1.4, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 26 % probability. Smorgon has scored 0.82 goals per home game against similar opposition and allowed 0.91, whereas Slutsk averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (100 %), Under 6.5 (99.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.9 %), Under 5.5 (99.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 4.5 (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2 %) and Home +2 handicap (97.2 %). Smorgon’s recent form shows a win-loss pattern after a defeat, while Slutsk has drawn recently, adding context to the low-scoring projection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Smorgon win
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk win
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Smorgon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
0.88
0.88
1.00
1.77
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.60
1.40
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.45
0.91
0.73
0.89
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.50
1.00
1.38
0.76
1.59
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.58
0.60
1.60
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.53
1.43
1.43
0.70
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (33%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.3%
Under 1.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
5.2%
Under 3.5
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
22.0%
No
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
26.1%
1-0
23.3%
2-0
11.8%
1-1
11.1%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
4.9%
3-0
3.8%
0-2
2.1%
Smorgon goals ↓
FC Slutsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
26%
9.4%
2.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1
23%
11%
2.1%
0.3%
0.0%
2
12%
4.9%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
3
3.8%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
4
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smorgon goals (down), columns = FC Slutsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Smorgon and FC Slutsk are level in average points per game (both 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Smorgon is 0.43 goals worse than FC Slutsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Smorgon is 0.29 goals worse than FC Slutsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Smorgon or Draw
85.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
38%
14%
covers Smorgon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smorgon or FC Slutsk
61.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
38%
14%
covers Smorgon + FC Slutsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Slutsk
52.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
38%
14%
covers Draw + FC Slutsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Smorgon over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Smorgon, so a minus line means Smorgon give that many goals of a start and FC Slutsk receive them. At -1, Smorgon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Smorgon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Smorgon)
Smorgon -2
5.4%
Draw -2
13.5%
FC Slutsk +2
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Smorgon)
Smorgon -1
18.9%
Draw -1
28.5%
FC Slutsk +1
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Smorgon)
Smorgon +1
85.6%
Draw +1
11.6%
FC Slutsk -1
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Smorgon)
Smorgon +2
97.2%
Draw +2
2.4%
FC Slutsk -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Smorgon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.31
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.70
0.55
0.45
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.31
0.62
0.41
0.82
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.75
0.40
0.40
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.76
0.29
0.86
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
Under 0.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.3%
Under 1.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.7%
Under 2.5
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Smorgon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.41
0.35
0.69
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.75
0.36
0.27
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.69
0.77
0.35
0.76
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.20
1.20
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.76
1.14
0.57
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.9%
Under 1.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II