Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with Smorgon conceding just under a goal per game at home and Niva struggling to keep clean sheets on the road. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a draw at 31%, and an away victory at 18%. The expected total is a tight 2.0 goals, and the most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Smorgon, a 16.5% chance. Smorgon’s home form shows 0.82 goals scored and 0.91 conceded against similar opposition, while Niva’s away attack averages 1.92 goals but concedes 2.17 against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (94.8%) and Under 4.5 (94.5%). Both sides entered the match after defeats, with Smorgon losing 0-1 to Ostrovets FC and Niva falling 2-3 to Lida.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Smorgon win
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva win
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Smorgon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
0.88
0.88
1.00
1.77
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.60
1.40
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.45
0.91
0.73
0.89
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.77
2.21
1.71
2.31
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.96
2.09
1.91
1.91
2.00
2.25
vs Weaker (7)
3.29
0.71
3.33
1.00
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.3%
No
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.4%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
13.1%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
4.5%
Smorgon goals ↓
Niva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
7.5%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.5%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
3
5.4%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smorgon goals (down), columns = Niva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Smorgon is 1.29 points worse than Niva in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Smorgon is 2.00 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Smorgon is 0.14 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Smorgon or Draw
81.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
18%
covers Smorgon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smorgon or Niva
70.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
18%
covers Smorgon + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Niva
48.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
18%
covers Draw + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Smorgon over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Smorgon, so a minus line means Smorgon give that many goals of a start and Niva receive them. At -1, Smorgon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Smorgon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Smorgon)
Smorgon -2
10.0%
Draw -2
16.1%
Niva +2
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Smorgon)
Smorgon -1
26.2%
Draw -1
25.5%
Niva +1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Smorgon)
Smorgon +1
81.6%
Draw +1
12.8%
Niva -1
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Smorgon)
Smorgon +2
94.4%
Draw +2
4.4%
Niva -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Smorgon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.31
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.70
0.55
0.45
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
0.93
0.71
1.06
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.17
0.82
0.82
0.92
1.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Smorgon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.41
0.35
0.69
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.75
0.36
0.27
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.80
1.29
1.00
1.25
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.91
1.09
1.09
1.08
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Smorgon and Niva have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Smorgon and Niva have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Smorgon and Niva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Smorgon and Niva have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II