Solihull’s recent three-straight defeats have left the home side looking vulnerable, yet the model still favours a home win at 39 %. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 10.1 % chance. Solihull’s home form shows an average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match, while Aldershot, playing away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 39 % home win, 24 % draw, and 37 % away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.3 %), Under 6.5 (93.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (89.5 %), Over 1.5 (87.5 %), Under 5.5 (85.6 %), Home over 0.5 goals (83.1 %), and Away over 0.5 goals (82.4 %). These figures suggest a closely contested match with plenty of chances for both sides.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Solihull win
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Solihull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.87
1.80
2.13
1.47
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.59
1.85
1.69
2.15
1.50
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aldershot
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.27
1.87
1.53
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.20
0.67
1.50
1.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.60
1.67
2.11
1.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
4.9%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
0-1
4.5%
Solihull goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
4.5%
4.8%
2.8%
1.3%
1
4.3%
10%
8.2%
4.9%
2.2%
2
4.5%
8.0%
7.1%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.6%
4.5%
4.0%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Solihull goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Solihull is 0.22 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Solihull is 0.04 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Solihull is 0.33 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Solihull is 5.4 percentage points worse than Aldershot in terms of average possession (48% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Solihull or Draw
60.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
24%
39%
covers Solihull + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Solihull or Aldershot
75.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
24%
39%
covers Solihull + Aldershot
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aldershot
63.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
24%
39%
covers Draw + Aldershot
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Solihull over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Solihull, so a minus line means Solihull give that many goals of a start and Aldershot receive them. At -1, Solihull must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Solihull win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Solihull)
Solihull -2
8.0%
Draw -2
11.2%
Aldershot +2
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Solihull)
Solihull -1
19.2%
Draw -1
17.5%
Aldershot +1
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Solihull)
Solihull +1
60.8%
Draw +1
18.2%
Aldershot -1
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Solihull)
Solihull +2
78.9%
Draw +2
12.0%
Aldershot -2
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Solihull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.52
1.00
0.77
0.93
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aldershot
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
1.13
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.89
1.22
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.2%
Under 1.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
Under 2.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Solihull over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Solihull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.27
0.80
1.33
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
1.33
0.69
1.38
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aldershot
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.47
0.73
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.30
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.80
0.78
0.89
1.09
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.4%
Under 0.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.7%
Under 1.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.5%
Under 2.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Solihull over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Solihull and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Solihull and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Solihull and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Sutton
Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Southend
Eastleigh
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth