Southampton are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of a home victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of Millwall taking the win. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.6% probability.
Southampton, playing at home against a team of similar strength, have averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Millwall, on the road against comparable opposition, average 1.4 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. The Saints are coming off a 1-4 loss to West Ham, while the Dons are riding a three-game winning streak after a 1-0 win over Cambridge.
The model’s selections are: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (96.6% with a 5% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.8% with a 5% edge).
Results analysis
Southampton’s win extends their recent run, with a 5-1 triumph over Millwall confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The model had chosen a home win with a 48% probability, and this call proved correct. The final score of 5-1 matched the actual result, a decisive victory for the Saints. The model’s selections performed largely as expected: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.3%. However, Under 5.5 missed at 96.6% and Home under 2.5 2H goals missed at 95.1%. The overall performance of the model’s predictions was strong, with most picks coming in.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Southampton win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied 47.6% · @ 1.97
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Dafabet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.54
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
Dafabet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.60
Millwall win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.63
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.79
Dafabet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Southampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.00
1.81
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.92
1.04
1.85
1.08
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.87
1.77
0.92
1.41
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.59
0.90
1.77
0.92
1.44
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.24-2.8%
Under 1.5
27.3%
@ 3.83+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.08
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.80-6.7%
Under 2.5
54.1%
@ 2.00+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.5%
@ 2.95-7.3%
Under 3.5
75.5%
@ 1.38+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.02
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
@ 1.66-5.6%
No
49.6%
@ 2.12+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
No
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.38+6.4%
1-0
11.1%@ 7.52+5.1%
2-0
9.4%@ 9.33+4.5%
0-0
9.3%@ 10.86+5.2%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.76+3.5%
0-1
6.8%@ 11.08+2.8%
1-2
6.1%@ 11.50+2.2%
3-0
4.7%@ 16.00+1.9%
Southampton goals ↓
Millwall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
6.8%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.3%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southampton goals (down), columns = Millwall goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Southampton is 0.04 points worse than Millwall in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Southampton is 0.40 goals better than Millwall in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Southampton is 0.12 goals worse than Millwall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Southampton is 8.7 percentage points better than Millwall in terms of average possession (56% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Southampton
For 5.1 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Millwall
For 6.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Southampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.9
11.0
3.7
3.9
3.6
22.1
23.1
21.1
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
13.0
13.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Similar (40)
11.1
10.9
11.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
22.4
23.6
21.2
vs Weaker (8)
9.9
10.0
9.8
2.9
3.3
2.6
21.0
20.7
21.2
% over line
67%
71%
64%
54%
50%
58%
47%
50%
44%
% under line
33%
29%
36%
46%
50%
42%
53%
50%
56%
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.2
10.3
3.4
3.1
3.7
20.7
19.7
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
10.9
11.2
10.5
3.4
3.1
3.8
20.6
19.7
21.4
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
54%
61%
48%
44%
30%
56%
32%
22%
41%
% under line
46%
39%
52%
56%
70%
44%
68%
78%
59%
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.7%
@ 1.65+4.4%
Under 9.5
39.3%
@ 2.12-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.0%
@ 1.64-2.7%
Under 3.5
46.0%
@ 2.14+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Unibet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.22
Unibet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.7%
@ 1.67+0.5%
Under 21.5
46.3%
@ 1.90-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Under
Superbet
1.90
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Southampton or Draw✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
+3.6%
48%
28%
24%
covers Southampton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Southampton or Millwall✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.9%
48%
28%
24%
covers Southampton + Millwall
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Draw or Millwall✗ Miss
51.3%
Avg Implied 51.9% · @ 1.80
Edge
-0.7%
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Millwall
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Southampton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.8%
@ 1.17-2.5%
Under
23.2%
@ 4.49+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Southampton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.9%
@ 1.89-6.4%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.84+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Southampton over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
18.2%
@ 3.84-6.0%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.23+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Superbet
3.80
Under
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Southampton over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.1%
@ 8.63-4.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Millwall over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.8%
@ 1.38-7.7%
Under
40.2%
@ 2.85+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Betano
2.85
Millwall over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.1%
@ 2.86-9.5%
Under
76.9%
@ 1.39+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Marathonbet
2.91
10Bet
2.90
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Millwall over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 7.28-6.3%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.06+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Millwall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 17.17-4.2%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Southampton, so a minus line means Southampton give that many goals of a start and Millwall receive them. At -1, Southampton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Southampton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton -2
9.8%
@ 7.23-2.6%
Draw -2
15.2%
@ 5.42-1.3%
Millwall +2
75.0%
@ 1.26+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Draw
Marathonbet
5.85
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton -1
25.0%
@ 3.42-1.2%
Draw -1
23.7%
@ 3.71-0.4%
Millwall +1
51.3%
@ 1.80+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.55
Away
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Handicap +1 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton +1
77.8%
@ 1.26+6.1%
Draw +1
14.3%
@ 5.28-2.8%
Millwall -1
7.9%
@ 7.98-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton +2
92.1%
@ 1.05+5.6%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 10.50-2.8%
Millwall -2
2.0%
@ 19.00-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Unibet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Southampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.88
0.44
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.62
0.85
0.54
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.27
0.85
0.08
0.35
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.28
0.85
0.08
0.31
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.34-2.1%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 3.07+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.61-4.1%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.45+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.70
Unibet
2.65
1xBet
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 6.40-3.6%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Marathonbet
6.40
Under
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 1.79-3.1%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.93+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Southampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.1%
@ 4.97-6.6%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.14+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Superbet
4.80
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Southampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 12.75-4.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Millwall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.7%
@ 2.33-1.1%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.54+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
Millwall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.20-3.4%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
8.90
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Millwall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 30.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Southampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
0.94
0.56
1.57
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
0.42
1.00
0.54
1.64
0.27
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
0.92
0.85
1.06
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.03
0.62
0.92
0.85
1.12
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.20+1.9%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 4.12-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 1.98-4.3%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.77+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 4.09-5.5%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.20+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.5%
@ 1.55+1.6%
Under
38.5%
@ 2.32-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Southampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
21.9%
@ 3.58-3.9%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.24+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Southampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
4.9%
@ 9.27-5.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.90
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Millwall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.7%
@ 1.94-4.1%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.78+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Millwall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.78-4.4%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Millwall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 15.12-4.2%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.03
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
93.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.8%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.08
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.20
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
77.8%
1.26
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.9%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.5%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
75.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.4%
1.35
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.0%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.28
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Southampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cyle Larin67%
Léo Scienza33%
Romeo Akachukwu33%
Ryan Manning20%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Finn Azaz17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Manning40%
J. Bree33%
Flynn Downes33%
N. Wood-Gordon25%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Cyle Larin17%
Léo Scienza17%
Cameron Bragg17%
J. Stephens0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Azaz50%
Ryan Manning40%
Léo Scienza33%
Flynn Downes17%
Cameron Bragg17%
Cyle Larin0%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
D. Mubama0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cyle Larin83%
Kuryu Matsuki17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
Ryan Manning0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
Léo Scienza0%
D. Mubama0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Millwall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Cundle40%
Tairyk Arconte25%
Josh Coburn20%
Jake Cooper17%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jenson Metcalfe33%
Casper De Norre20%
Lyndon Dykes20%
Josh Coburn20%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zak Lovelace25%
Jake Cooper17%
Camiel Neghli17%
Jenson Metcalfe17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Josh Coburn0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Coburn20%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Southampton's squad is €120m more valuable than Millwall's (€205m vs €85m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Southampton's attack is €42m more valuable than Millwall's (€72m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Southampton's midfield is €24m more valuable than Millwall's (€53m vs €29m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Southampton's defence is €54m more valuable than Millwall's (€79m vs €25m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston