This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.73
1.13
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.48
1.20
2.00
1.25
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.9%
Under 2.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.6%
Under 3.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
33.6%
No
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
16.7%
1-0
13.4%
3-0
13.3%
4-0
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
1-1
6.9%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.0%
Southampton goals ↓
Stoke goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
1
13%
6.9%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2
17%
7.5%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
3
13%
6.0%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
4
7.9%
3.6%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southampton goals (down), columns = Stoke goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Everton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Watford
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Coventry
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Oxford
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Cardiff
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Grimsby
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Hull
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Southampton and Stoke are level in average points per game (both 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Watford
2.67
Southampton
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Wrexham
2.00
Everton
2.00
Preston
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Sheffield United
2.00
Reading
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Shrewsbury
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Brentford
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Walsall
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Newport County
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Derby
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Coventry
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Hull
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Southampton and Stoke are level in goals scored per game (both 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Fulham
0.50
Blackpool
0.67
Watford
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Coventry
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Luton
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Preston
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Brentford
1.25
Crystal Palace
1.25
Leyton Orient
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Brighton
1.67
Leicester
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Salford
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Carlisle
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Reading
2.00
Hull
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Barnsley
2.67
Gillingham
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Morecambe
3.00
Cheltenham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Southampton is 1.00 goals worse than Stoke in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Southampton
For 4.4 · Against 7.5 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
For 4.5 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Southampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
11.3
11.7
4.6
5.0
4.1
22.3
22.2
22.3
vs Stronger (4)
12.2
7.0
14.0
5.0
6.0
4.7
23.2
25.0
22.7
vs Similar (41)
11.2
11.0
11.4
4.4
4.8
4.1
22.5
22.2
22.8
vs Weaker (5)
13.4
15.0
11.0
5.2
6.3
3.5
19.6
21.3
17.0
% over line
69%
65%
72%
70%
74%
67%
44%
43%
44%
% under line
31%
35%
28%
30%
26%
33%
56%
57%
56%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.7
11.1
3.9
3.6
4.2
22.0
21.0
23.0
vs Stronger (8)
10.1
10.8
9.0
4.0
4.6
3.0
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Similar (39)
11.1
10.6
11.5
4.1
3.6
4.5
21.8
20.6
22.9
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.7
0.0
2.5
24.0
-
24.0
% over line
47%
46%
48%
62%
56%
68%
60%
58%
61%
% under line
53%
54%
52%
38%
44%
32%
40%
42%
39%
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tottenham
12.8
Manchester United
12.3
Bournemouth
11.8
Exeter
11.7
Coventry
11.7
Plymouth
11.7
Luton
11.6
Southampton
11.6
Crawley Town
11.4
Sheffield Weds
11.3
Bromley
11.3
QPR
11.3
Barnsley
11.3
Sheffield United
11.3
Huddersfield
11.2
Fleetwood Town
11.1
Port Vale
11.1
Tranmere
11.1
Manchester City
11.0
Everton
11.0
Stoke
10.9
Derby
10.9
West Brom
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Brentford
10.9
Bristol City
10.8
Rotherham
10.8
Swansea
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Wrexham
10.7
Charlton
10.7
Middlesbrough
10.7
Newcastle
10.7
Notts County
10.7
Wycombe
10.7
Liverpool
10.7
Wolves
10.6
Ipswich
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Mansfield
10.6
Leeds
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Reading
10.5
Bolton
10.5
Doncaster
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Hull
10.5
Burnley
10.5
Birmingham
10.5
Chelsea
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Walsall
10.4
Peterboro
10.4
Millwall
10.3
Swindon
10.3
Crewe
10.3
Accrington
10.2
Oxford
10.2
Bristol Rvs
10.2
Portsmouth
10.2
Crystal Palace
10.2
Shrewsbury
10.2
Chesterfield
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Lincoln
10.1
Sunderland
10.1
Stevenage
10.1
Watford
10.1
Colchester
10.0
Aston Villa
10.0
Blackpool
9.9
Leicester
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Salford
9.8
Carlisle
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.6
Brighton
9.6
West Ham
9.6
Cardiff
9.4
Barrow
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Preston
9.2
Stockport
9.2
Wigan
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Burton
8.9
Northampton
8.8
Milton Keynes Dons
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
5.5
Chelsea
5.5
Wigan
5.1
Brighton
5.0
Tottenham
5.0
Wolves
5.0
Portsmouth
4.8
Newcastle
4.8
Sunderland
4.8
Southampton
4.8
Stevenage
4.8
Lincoln
4.6
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Bradford
4.6
Bournemouth
4.6
Crawley Town
4.6
Salford
4.5
Plymouth
4.4
Leicester
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Manchester United
4.4
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Millwall
4.3
Cheltenham
4.3
Bolton
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Watford
4.3
Burnley
4.3
QPR
4.3
Doncaster
4.3
Coventry
4.3
Barrow
4.3
Blackburn
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Blackpool
4.2
Leeds
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.2
Bristol Rvs
4.2
Morecambe
4.2
Liverpool
4.2
Swansea
4.2
Exeter
4.2
Sheffield Weds
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
West Ham
4.2
Norwich
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Brentford
4.2
Gillingham
4.2
Oxford
4.2
Middlesbrough
4.1
Luton
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Birmingham
4.0
Wycombe
4.0
Hull
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
Mansfield
4.0
Charlton
4.0
Crystal Palace
4.0
Chesterfield
4.0
Burton
3.9
Preston
3.9
Fulham
3.9
Wrexham
3.9
Huddersfield
3.9
Ipswich
3.9
Arsenal
3.9
Accrington
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Northampton
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.7
Walsall
3.6
Newport County
3.6
Reading
3.6
West Brom
3.6
Derby
3.6
Cardiff
3.6
Stockport
3.6
Carlisle
3.5
Everton
3.5
Manchester City
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Bristol City
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Peterboro
3.3
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.2
Wigan
25.3
Tottenham
25.1
Portsmouth
24.9
Cheltenham
24.8
Accrington
24.8
Luton
24.3
Birmingham
24.0
Grimsby
23.8
Stockport
23.7
Wolves
23.6
Sunderland
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.5
Leeds
23.5
AFC Wimbledon
23.5
Salford
23.5
Chelsea
23.5
Doncaster
23.5
Cambridge
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Bolton
23.4
Watford
23.4
Crystal Palace
23.4
Chesterfield
23.4
Bournemouth
23.3
Lincoln
23.3
Bradford
23.3
Newcastle
23.3
Aston Villa
23.2
Coventry
23.2
Preston
23.2
Millwall
23.1
Ipswich
23.1
Bristol Rvs
23.0
Bromley
22.9
Huddersfield
22.9
Shrewsbury
22.7
Brighton
22.6
Barrow
22.6
Plymouth
22.5
Exeter
22.5
Swansea
22.5
QPR
22.5
Crewe
22.4
Reading
22.4
Hull
22.3
Newport County
22.3
Southampton
22.3
Nottingham Forest
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Colchester
22.1
Burton
22.1
Middlesbrough
22.0
Morecambe
21.9
Rotherham
21.9
Arsenal
21.9
Wycombe
21.8
Fleetwood Town
21.7
Stoke
21.7
Liverpool
21.7
Mansfield
21.6
Burnley
21.5
Crawley Town
21.5
Oxford
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Derby
21.5
Everton
21.5
Leicester
21.4
Charlton
21.4
Walsall
21.3
Fulham
21.2
Gillingham
21.2
Wrexham
21.1
West Ham
21.0
Port Vale
21.0
Blackburn
20.9
Leyton Orient
20.8
Bristol City
20.8
Northampton
20.7
Swindon
20.7
Peterboro
20.6
Cardiff
20.6
Carlisle
20.5
Brentford
20.5
Barnsley
20.5
Notts County
20.3
Sheffield United
20.3
Tranmere
20.1
Manchester United
20.1
Harrogate
20.1
West Brom
19.4
Manchester City
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.5%
Under 9.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.9%
Under 3.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.9%
Under 21.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Southampton or Draw✓ Hit
95.3%
Avg Implied -
80%
15%
5%
covers Southampton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southampton or Stoke✓ Hit
84.7%
Avg Implied -
80%
15%
5%
covers Southampton + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stoke✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
80%
15%
5%
covers Draw + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Southampton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.8%
Under
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Southampton, so a minus line means Southampton give that many goals of a start and Stoke receive them. At -1, Southampton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Southampton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Southampton)Actual: Stoke
Southampton -2
34.1%
Draw -2
23.5%
Stoke +2
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Southampton)Actual: Draw
Southampton -1
57.6%
Draw -1
22.3%
Stoke +1
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton +1
95.3%
Draw +1
3.7%
Stoke -1
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton +2
99.0%
Draw +2
0.8%
Stoke -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Southampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.08
0.77
0.88
0.82
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.75
1.27
0.55
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
1.00
0.53
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.52
1.25
0.67
0.23
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Southampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.69
0.92
0.65
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
1.08
0.36
0.91
0.77
1.23
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.68
0.75
0.58
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Southampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw25%
Paul Onuachu14%
Adam Armstrong13%
Cameron Archer10%
James Bree9%
Joe Aribo8%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis8%
Tyler Dibling8%
Ross Stewart8%
Mateus Fernandes7%
Kamaldeen Sulemana7%
Jan Bednarek6%
Jack Stephens5%
Will Smallbone5%
Flynn Downes3%
Lesley Ugochukwu3%
Yukinari Sugawara3%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
Adam Lallana0%
Maxwel Cornet0%
Ryan Fraser0%
Charlie Taylor0%
Alex McCarthy0%
Nathan Wood0%
Ben Brereton Díaz0%
Joe Lumley0%
Ryan Manning0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Welington0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Jay Robinson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maxwel Cornet50%
Flynn Downes45%
Samuel Edozie33%
Adam Armstrong26%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw25%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis24%
Lesley Ugochukwu23%
Adam Lallana22%
Jan Bednarek21%
Nathan Wood20%
Mateus Fernandes19%
Tyler Dibling18%
Ben Brereton Díaz15%
Kyle Walker-Peters14%
Paul Onuachu14%
Yukinari Sugawara12%
Ryan Manning11%
Jack Stephens11%
Charlie Taylor10%
Kamaldeen Sulemana10%
Welington9%
James Bree9%
Ross Stewart8%
Aaron Ramsdale6%
Will Smallbone5%
Joe Aribo3%
Ryan Fraser0%
Alex McCarthy0%
Joe Lumley0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Cameron Archer0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Jay Robinson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Charlie Taylor20%
Mateus Fernandes14%
Adam Lallana11%
Kamaldeen Sulemana10%
Adam Armstrong9%
Lesley Ugochukwu6%
Kyle Walker-Peters6%
James Bree4%
Ryan Manning4%
Paul Onuachu4%
Yukinari Sugawara3%
Tyler Dibling3%
Maxwel Cornet0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Ryan Fraser0%
Alex McCarthy0%
Jack Stephens0%
Nathan Wood0%
Ben Brereton Díaz0%
Joe Lumley0%
Flynn Downes0%
Joe Aribo0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Ross Stewart0%
Will Smallbone0%
Cameron Archer0%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis0%
Welington0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw0%
Jay Robinson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Onuachu11%
Kamaldeen Sulemana10%
Adam Armstrong9%
Cameron Archer8%
Tyler Dibling5%
Yukinari Sugawara3%
Joe Aribo3%
Mateus Fernandes2%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
Adam Lallana0%
Maxwel Cornet0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Ryan Fraser0%
Charlie Taylor0%
Alex McCarthy0%
Jack Stephens0%
Nathan Wood0%
Ben Brereton Díaz0%
Joe Lumley0%
Ryan Manning0%
James Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Ross Stewart0%
Will Smallbone0%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis0%
Welington0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Lesley Ugochukwu0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw0%
Jay Robinson0%
Stoke
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thomas Cannon32%
Lewis Baker27%
Ryan Mmaee25%
Million Manhoef16%
Ali Al-Hamadi13%
Ben Gibson12%
Emre Tezgel12%
Andrew Moran10%
Lewis Koumas10%
Nathan Lowe10%
Sam Gallagher9%
Niall Ennis8%
Ben Wilmot7%
Jun-Ho Bae6%
Michael Rose4%
Ashley Phillips3%
Wouter Burger2%
Junior Tchamadeu2%
André Vidigal0%
Enda Stevens0%
Ben Pearson0%
Lynden Gooch0%
Jordan Thompson0%
Josh Laurent0%
Tatsuki Seko0%
Viktor Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
Josh Wilson-Esbrand0%
Mohammed Olabosun Lawal0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Jaden Dixon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Laurent75%
Ben Pearson36%
Jordan Thompson31%
Ben Gibson28%
Junior Tchamadeu27%
Andrew Moran26%
Wouter Burger24%
Sam Gallagher23%
Ben Wilmot21%
Nathan Lowe20%
Lewis Baker18%
Ashley Phillips15%
Enda Stevens14%
Ali Al-Hamadi13%
Lynden Gooch13%
Jun-Ho Bae12%
Michael Rose12%
Thomas Cannon12%
Viktor Johansson10%
Lewis Koumas10%
Emre Tezgel6%
Million Manhoef5%
Tatsuki Seko4%
Eric Bocat3%
André Vidigal0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Niall Ennis0%
Josh Wilson-Esbrand0%
Mohammed Olabosun Lawal0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Jaden Dixon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Wilson-Esbrand29%
Souleymane Sidibe15%
Lewis Baker14%
Million Manhoef13%
Andrew Moran10%
Enda Stevens10%
Lynden Gooch9%
Jun-Ho Bae8%
Lewis Koumas6%
Eric Bocat6%
Sam Gallagher5%
Wouter Burger4%
Junior Tchamadeu4%
Thomas Cannon4%
Jordan Thompson4%
André Vidigal0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Niall Ennis0%
Ben Gibson0%
Ben Pearson0%
Josh Laurent0%
Ben Wilmot0%
Michael Rose0%
Tatsuki Seko0%
Viktor Johansson0%
Emre Tezgel0%
Ali Al-Hamadi0%
Ashley Phillips0%
Mohammed Olabosun Lawal0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Jaden Dixon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thomas Cannon36%
Lewis Baker14%
Million Manhoef11%
Lewis Koumas10%
Sam Gallagher9%
Niall Ennis8%
Ali Al-Hamadi7%
Andrew Moran5%
Jun-Ho Bae2%
André Vidigal0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Ben Gibson0%
Enda Stevens0%
Ben Pearson0%
Lynden Gooch0%
Jordan Thompson0%
Josh Laurent0%
Ben Wilmot0%
Wouter Burger0%
Michael Rose0%
Tatsuki Seko0%
Viktor Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
Josh Wilson-Esbrand0%
Emre Tezgel0%
Junior Tchamadeu0%
Ashley Phillips0%
Mohammed Olabosun Lawal0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Jaden Dixon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Southampton's squad is €126m more valuable than Stoke's (€205m vs €79m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Southampton's attack is €37m more valuable than Stoke's (€72m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Southampton's midfield is €42m more valuable than Stoke's (€53m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Southampton's defence is €47m more valuable than Stoke's (€79m vs €32m).
England: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
England: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →