Southend are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 54% chance of victory against Barrow’s 21% win probability and a 25% draw likelihood. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the most probable total being two goals at a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.1% probability. Southend’s home form shows they average two goals scored and only 0.85 conceded against similar opposition, while Barrow, on the road, averages 1.29 scored and 2.57 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Home +2 handicap (92.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.4%) and Under 5.5 cards (86.9%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Southend win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barrow win
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Southend
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.20
1.80
1.07
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.00
1.19
2.00
0.85
2.00
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barrow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.90
0.79
1.43
1.12
2.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
2.00
0.83
1.42
1.21
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
6.3%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
Southend goals ↓
Barrow goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.3%
13%
6.3%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.6%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
3
4.9%
5.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southend goals (down), columns = Barrow goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Southend is 0.46 points worse than Barrow in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Southend is 0.53 goals worse than Barrow in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 2.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Southend is 0.10 goals worse than Barrow in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Southend or Draw
76.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
24%
covers Southend + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend or Barrow
73.5%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
24%
covers Southend + Barrow
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Barrow
50.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
24%
covers Draw + Barrow
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Southend over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Southend, so a minus line means Southend give that many goals of a start and Barrow receive them. At -1, Southend must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Southend win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Southend)
Southend -2
11.8%
Draw -2
15.5%
Barrow +2
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Southend)
Southend -1
27.3%
Draw -1
22.3%
Barrow +1
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Southend)
Southend +1
76.1%
Draw +1
14.3%
Barrow -1
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Southend)
Southend +2
90.4%
Draw +2
6.7%
Barrow -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Southend
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.62
1.15
0.38
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barrow
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.14
0.50
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.81
0.17
0.58
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Southend
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.73
0.67
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.58
0.85
0.46
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barrow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.17
0.64
0.93
0.31
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.50
1.19
0.67
0.83
0.36
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barrow · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Gordon26%
Isaac Fletcher23%
Danny Rose19%
Charlie McCann15%
Lewis Shipley12%
Ben Whitfield11%
Tyler Walker9%
Jovan Malcolm8%
Niall Canavan7%
Rekeem Harper6%
Scott Smith3%
Jack Earing3%
Charlie Raglan3%
Connor Mahoney3%
Elliot Newby2%
Ben Jackson2%
Sam Foley0%
David Worrall0%
Kane Hemmings0%
Regan Booty0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Tom Barkhuizen0%
MJ Williams0%
Innes Cameron0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Jack Thompson0%
Brandon Powell0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Freddie Anderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Freddie Anderson50%
Scott Smith33%
Josh Gordon32%
Jack Thompson30%
Niall Canavan21%
Joseph Anderson21%
Danny Rose19%
Regan Booty18%
Charlie McCann18%
MJ Williams16%
Angus MacDonald15%
Rekeem Harper15%
Kane Hemmings14%
Isaac Fletcher13%
Lewis Shipley12%
Charlie Raglan11%
Elliot Newby10%
Ben Jackson9%
Tom Barkhuizen9%
Wyll Stanway7%
Tyler Walker5%
Ben Whitfield4%
Connor Mahoney3%
Sam Foley0%
David Worrall0%
Jack Earing0%
Innes Cameron0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Jovan Malcolm0%
Brandon Powell0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ben Whitfield11%
Tom Barkhuizen9%
Angus MacDonald8%
Kane Hemmings7%
Niall Canavan7%
Joseph Anderson7%
Jack Earing6%
Isaac Fletcher6%
Connor Mahoney5%
Elliot Newby5%
Danny Rose5%
MJ Williams4%
Rekeem Harper3%
Charlie McCann3%
Charlie Raglan3%
Tyler Walker0%
Sam Foley0%
David Worrall0%
Regan Booty0%
Josh Gordon0%
Innes Cameron0%
Ben Jackson0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Scott Smith0%
Jovan Malcolm0%
Lewis Shipley0%
Jack Thompson0%
Brandon Powell0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Freddie Anderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddie Anderson25%
Josh Gordon16%
Isaac Fletcher10%
Charlie McCann9%
Danny Rose5%
MJ Williams4%
Scott Smith3%
Rekeem Harper3%
Charlie Raglan3%
Connor Mahoney3%
Tyler Walker0%
Sam Foley0%
Ben Whitfield0%
David Worrall0%
Kane Hemmings0%
Regan Booty0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Tom Barkhuizen0%
Jack Earing0%
Niall Canavan0%
Elliot Newby0%
Innes Cameron0%
Ben Jackson0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Jovan Malcolm0%
Lewis Shipley0%
Jack Thompson0%
Brandon Powell0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Southend's squad is €1m less valuable than Barrow's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Southend and Barrow have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Southend and Barrow have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Southend and Barrow have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Sutton
Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Tamworth
Solihull