Southend are tipped to win in a tight contest, with the model favouring a home victory at 51%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% chance. Southend, playing at home against a stronger side, average 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded, while Fylde, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 1.09 scored and 1.55 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 51% for a Southend win, 26% for a draw, and 23% for a Fylde win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Under 5.5 (92.7%), Home +2 handicap (90.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%), and Under 4.5 (83.4%). The home side’s recent form shows a win-loss-win-win-loss streak after a 1-3 defeat to Kidderminster, while Fylde come off a 2-0 win over Forest Green.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Southend win
47.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylde win
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Southend
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.20
1.80
1.07
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.00
1.19
2.00
0.85
2.00
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.47
1.47
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.50
1.83
1.17
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
1.55
1.12
1.62
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
Southend goals ↓
Fylde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.4%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.8%
3
4.3%
5.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southend goals (down), columns = Fylde goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Southend is 0.35 points better than Fylde in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Southend is 0.31 goals better than Fylde in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Southend is 0.44 goals better than Fylde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Southend or Draw
73.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
27%
covers Southend + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend or Fylde
74.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
27%
covers Southend + Fylde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fylde
52.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
27%
covers Draw + Fylde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Southend over/under 0.5
Over
81.9%
Under
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Southend, so a minus line means Southend give that many goals of a start and Fylde receive them. At -1, Southend must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Southend win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Southend)
Southend -2
11.2%
Draw -2
14.7%
Fylde +2
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Southend)
Southend -1
25.9%
Draw -1
21.3%
Fylde +1
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Southend)
Southend +1
73.2%
Draw +1
15.2%
Fylde -1
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Southend)
Southend +2
88.4%
Draw +2
7.8%
Fylde -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Southend
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.62
1.15
0.38
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.92
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Southend
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.73
0.67
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.58
0.85
0.46
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.88
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.45
0.85
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →