This match is expected to be a close contest, with Southend looking to build on their recent form. They've been on a two-game winning run, having beaten Scunthorpe 1-0 in their last meeting, and have been scoring at an average rate of two goals at home. Scunthorpe, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, conceding an average of 1.71 goals per game against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a home win with a 48% chance, with a draw at 26% and an away win at 26%. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 12.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.1%.
Southend have been scoring at an average rate of two goals at home, while conceding one. Scunthorpe have been scoring 1.43 goals on average away from home, while conceding 1.71.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, which has an 80.7% chance of occurring. The model also suggests a home win, which has a 48% chance of happening, as well as a draw, at 26%. Scunthorpe's away win has a 26% chance.
The win extends Southend's run, with a second consecutive victory over Scunthorpe. The final score was 1-0, a result that defied the model's expectations of a more open game, with an expected total of 3 goals. The model's selection, a Home win, proved correct. The model had assigned a 48% probability to Southend winning, making them the pre-match favourite. The suggested picks included Over 1.5, which the model estimated would occur with an 80.7% probability, but ultimately missed.
Southend| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.17 | 2.00 | 0.93 | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.96 | 1.22 | 2.15 | 0.85 | 1.79 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Scunthorpe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.53 | 1.47 | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.00 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.54 | 1.85 | 1.69 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Scunthorpe goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 12% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Southend| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.57 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.89 | 0.59 | 1.23 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Scunthorpe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.54 | 0.88 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Southend| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.60 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.07 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 0.46 | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Scunthorpe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.07 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.08 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 22/10/22 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/03/21 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/12/20 | H | 1-0 |
Southend| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-6 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Scunthorpe| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Sutton | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 54% |
| 2 | Yeovil | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 3 | Boreham Wood | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 4 | Harrogate | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 5 | F Fylde | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Southend | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 7 | Eastleigh | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 41% |
| 8 | K Kidderminster | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Aldershot | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 10 | Boston Utd | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Halifax | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 12 | Hartlepool | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 1.6 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 47% |
| 13 | Altrincham | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 14 | Carlisle | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 100% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 15 | Wealdstone | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 57% |
| 16 | Scunthorpe | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Woking | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 18 | Gateshead | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 19 | Forest Green | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 53% |
| 20 | Barrow | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Tamworth | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 38% |
| 22 | Solihull | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 48% |