PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Sporting CP vs AVS Result & Analysis

Date: 05/02/2026
Time: 20:45
Final 3-2
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Vs
81%
13%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
AVS
AVS
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Sporting CP’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-1 victory over Alverca give the home side a clear edge, and the model rates a home win at 81%. The odds reflect Sporting’s strong home form - averaging 3.31 goals scored and only 0.31 conceded against weaker opposition - while AVS, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.5 goals scored and 3.33 conceded. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a lively affair, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 10.8%. The model’s pick is a home win, and the predicted total of 3 goals carries a 21% probability. The suggested selections include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, home +2 handicap at 98.3%, under 7.5 at 96.4%, away under 2.5 goals at 96.0%, home over 0.5 goals at 94.9%, home or draw at 94.1%, home +1 handicap at 94.1%, and over 19.5 fouls at 93.4%. The probability of a Sporting win is 81%, a draw 13%, and an AVS win 6%.

Results analysis

Sporting CP extended their two-game winning run at home, while AVS returned from a draw. The model’s favourite, a Home win, was correct as Sporting CP edged AVS 3-2. The pre-match probability for the favoured result was 81%. The model’s selections largely hit: Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%) finished in the 3-2 scoreline, Home +2 handicap (98.3%) was satisfied, Under 7.5 (96.4%) and Away under 2.5 goals (96.0%) were also correct, as were Home over 0.5 goals (94.9%), Home or Draw (94.1%), Home +1 handicap (94.1%) and Over 19.5 fouls (93.4%). All predictions were settled and the model’s choices performed well.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sporting CP win✓ Hit
81.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AVS win✗ Miss
5.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sporting CPSporting CP

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-660W32W41W40W11D30W21W21W32W21WH·AVS13/12A·SAN18/12A·GUI23/12H·RIO28/12A·GIL02/01H·CAS16/01H·PAR20/01A·ARO24/01A·ATH28/01H·NAC01/02
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.600.873.070.472.131.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.171.671.501.501.001.75
vs Weaker (24)2.960.673.310.312.551.09
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L12L06L10W22D02L02L01L33D04LA·GUI28/11H·RIO06/12A·SPO13/12A·GUI17/12H·NAC21/12A·FC 29/12H·MOR03/01H·ARO17/01A·CAS23/01H·SC 02/02
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.170.751.811.292.57
vs Stronger (10)0.403.100.252.750.503.33
vs Similar (20)1.301.700.921.501.882.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%08%117%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.7%
Under 2.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.8%
3-0
10.6%
2-1
8.0%
3-1
8.0%
4-0
7.9%
1-0
6.7%
1-1
6.0%
4-1
5.9%
Sporting CP goals ↓
AVS goals →
01234
03.0%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.0%
16.7%6.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%
211%8.0%3.0%0.8%0.1%
311%8.0%3.0%0.7%0.1%
47.9%5.9%2.2%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting CP goals (down), columns = AVS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sporting CP
3.00
Benfica
2.57
Rebordosa
2.40
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
Cinfães
2.25
Lusitânia
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Farense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Anadia
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
O Elvas
2.00
Operário
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Santa Clara
2.00
Brito
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Rio Ave
1.67
Estrela
1.50
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Academica
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Alpendorada
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estoril
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Nacional
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Sporting CP is 1.50 points better than AVS in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Sporting CP
2.57
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Cinfães
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Farense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
FC Porto
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Rio Ave
1.83
Lusitânia
1.75
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Estrela
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
O Elvas
1.40
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.29
Vila Meã
1.29
Portalegrense
1.29
Correlhã
1.29
Vitória de Sernache
1.29
Florgrade
1.29
Nazarenos
1.29
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.29
Valenciano
1.29
Castro Daire
1.29
Uniao Nogueirense
1.29
Espinho
1.29
Naval 1893
1.29
Rebordelo
1.29
Portimonense B
1.29
Ançã
1.29
Resende
1.29
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.29
Silves
1.29
Vidago
1.29
AD Fornos Algodres
1.29
Vila Caíz
1.29
Angrense
1.29
Charneca Caparica
1.29
Oriental Lisboa
1.29
Sourense
1.29
Celoricense
1.29
AD Portomosense
1.29
Alcochetense
1.29
Fayal
1.29
Gouveia
1.29
Samora Correir
1.29
Ribeira Brava
1.29
Aparecida GO
1.29
Mirandela
1.29
Estrela Calheta
1.29
SC Celoricense
1.29
Almodôvar
1.29
Mosteirense
1.29
Águias do Moradal
1.29
Urzelinense
1.29
Celeirós
1.29
Quarteirense
1.29
AR São Martinho
1.29
Carregal
1.29
Juventude Évora
1.29
Fazendense
1.29
Pontassolense
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Tirsense
1.14
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Academica
1.00
Tondela
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Monção
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Sporting CP is 0.57 goals better than AVS in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Academica
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Brito
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Benfica
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
Santa Clara
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Academico Viseu
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Feirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Machico
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Alpendorada
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Arouca
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Anadia
1.67
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.82
Vila Meã
1.82
Portalegrense
1.82
Correlhã
1.82
Vitória de Sernache
1.82
Florgrade
1.82
Nazarenos
1.82
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.82
Valenciano
1.82
Castro Daire
1.82
Uniao Nogueirense
1.82
Espinho
1.82
Naval 1893
1.82
Rebordelo
1.82
Portimonense B
1.82
Ançã
1.82
Resende
1.82
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.82
Silves
1.82
Vidago
1.82
AD Fornos Algodres
1.82
Vila Caíz
1.82
Angrense
1.82
Charneca Caparica
1.82
Oriental Lisboa
1.82
Sourense
1.82
Celoricense
1.82
AD Portomosense
1.82
Alcochetense
1.82
Fayal
1.82
Gouveia
1.82
Samora Correir
1.82
Ribeira Brava
1.82
Aparecida GO
1.82
Mirandela
1.82
Estrela Calheta
1.82
SC Celoricense
1.82
Almodôvar
1.82
Mosteirense
1.82
Águias do Moradal
1.82
Urzelinense
1.82
Celeirós
1.82
Quarteirense
1.82
AR São Martinho
1.82
Carregal
1.82
Juventude Évora
1.82
Fazendense
1.82
Pontassolense
1.82
Amarante
2.00
Farense
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Estrela
4.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Sporting CP is 0.93 goals better than AVS in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Sporting CPSporting CP

For 6.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.7

🚩 Corners

15011767421046788152648111131112101597109H·NACA·ATHA·AROH·PARH·CASA·GILH·RIOA·GUIA·SANH·AVS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.7

🟨 Cards

903545421354115434123993392973H·NACA·ATHA·AROH·PARH·CASA·GILH·RIOA·GUIA·SANH·AVS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.7 · Total 27.4

⚠️ Fouls

440121582212111011121214171361421212311927302321243119354420H·NACA·ATHA·AROH·PARH·CASA·GILH·RIOA·GUIA·SANH·AVS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AVSAVS

For 3.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

140141122324792491831137513567111391410H·SC A·CASH·AROH·MORA·FC H·NACA·GUIA·SPOH·RIOA·GUI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

13015346531125121761181082263131H·SC A·CASH·AROH·MORA·FC H·NACA·GUIA·SPOH·RIOA·GUI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.5

⚠️ Fouls

340361315111223117810111612911161614119282334152128203225H·SC A·CASH·AROH·MORA·FC H·NACA·GUIA·SPOH·RIOA·GUI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Sporting CPSporting CP

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.69.45.34.36.326.423.928.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (10)8.510.77.64.44.34.426.223.327.4
vs Weaker (40)9.89.410.15.54.36.926.523.929.5
% over line47%52%42%64%46%81%77%65%88%
% under line53%48%58%36%54%19%23%35%12%
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.97.710.05.15.84.327.428.426.4
vs Stronger (17)8.87.110.04.65.04.425.125.325.0
vs Similar (33)8.97.99.95.36.24.328.729.827.4
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line40%26%54%68%75%62%83%87%79%
% under line60%74%46%32%25%38%17%13%21%
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Penafiel
12.5
Portimonense
11.9
Farense
11.0
Vizela
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
União de Leiria
10.7
Chaves
10.7
Academico Viseu
10.7
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Nacional
10.4
Famalicao
10.4
Oliveirense
10.4
Felgueiras 1932
10.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Benfica
9.9
Arouca
9.9
Rio Ave
9.8
Torreense
9.7
Sporting CP
9.5
Casa Pia
9.5
Guimaraes
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
GIL Vicente
9.3
Tondela
9.3
Estrela
9.1
Pacos Ferreira
9.0
Estoril
8.9
Maritimo
8.8
Leixoes
8.8
AVS
8.7
Santa Clara
8.7
Feirense
8.6
FC Porto
8.6
SC Braga
8.5
Mafra
8.5
Moreirense
8.1
Alverca
7.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.6
Felgueiras 1932
6.5
Pacos Ferreira
6.4
Chaves
6.3
Vizela
6.2
Leixoes
6.1
Oliveirense
5.9
Farense
5.9
Feirense
5.8
Sporting CP
5.8
Maritimo
5.8
Torreense
5.8
Guimaraes
5.7
FC Porto
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.7
Academico Viseu
5.7
Portimonense
5.6
União de Leiria
5.6
Arouca
5.5
Famalicao
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
Estrela
5.4
AVS
5.3
Nacional
5.3
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.2
Rio Ave
5.1
GIL Vicente
5.1
Penafiel
5.1
Tondela
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Vilaverdense
4.8
Estoril
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
SC Braga
4.4
Mafra
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.9
Estrela
31.4
Lusitânia Lourosa
31.4
Moreirense
30.7
Santa Clara
30.6
Farense
29.6
Guimaraes
28.9
Vilaverdense
28.5
Estoril
28.4
Casa Pia
28.2
SC Covilha
28.2
GIL Vicente
28.2
Rio Ave
28.0
Nacional
27.3
Arouca
27.1
AVS
27.1
FC Porto
26.8
Sporting CP
26.8
Benfica
25.5
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
SC Braga
24.7
Tondela
20.5
Leixoes
20.1
Pacos Ferreira
18.4
Alverca
18.2
União de Leiria
18.2
Academico Viseu
17.8
Oliveirense
16.9
Maritimo
15.8
Vizela
15.5
Felgueiras 1932
15.0
Feirense
14.9
Portimonense
14.9
Mafra
14.9
Penafiel
14.1
Chaves
13.5
Torreense
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.7%
Under 9.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.6%
Under 3.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.1%
Under 21.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sporting CP or Draw✓ Hit
94.1%
Avg Implied -
81%
13%
6%
covers Sporting CP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP or AVS✓ Hit
87.2%
Avg Implied -
81%
13%
6%
covers Sporting CP + AVS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AVS✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
81%
13%
6%
covers Draw + AVS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.9%
Under
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
34.6%
Under
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Sporting CP, so a minus line means Sporting CP give that many goals of a start and AVS receive them. At -1, Sporting CP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sporting CP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sporting CP)Actual: AVS
Sporting CP -2
41.9%
Draw -2
21.2%
AVS +2
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sporting CP)Actual: Draw
Sporting CP -1
63.1%
Draw -1
18.3%
AVS +1
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sporting CP)Actual: Sporting CP
Sporting CP +1
94.1%
Draw +1
4.2%
AVS -1
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sporting CP)Actual: Sporting CP
Sporting CP +2
98.3%
Draw +2
1.3%
AVS -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sporting CPSporting CP

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D20W10W10W20W00D10W12L00DH·AVS13/12A·SAN18/12A·GUI23/12H·RIO28/12A·GIL02/01H·CAS16/01H·PAR20/01A·ARO24/01A·ATH28/01H·NAC01/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.371.200.070.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.330.500.000.000.500.75
vs Weaker (24)1.210.331.380.081.000.64
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L03L10W20W00D01L01L01L02LA·GUI28/11H·RIO06/12A·SPO13/12A·GUI17/12H·NAC21/12A·FC 29/12H·MOR03/01H·ARO17/01A·CAS23/01H·SC 02/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.030.310.750.431.36
vs Stronger (10)0.401.500.251.000.501.83
vs Similar (20)0.350.800.330.670.381.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sporting CPSporting CP

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W21W30W01L10W21W11D20W21WH·AVS13/12A·SAN18/12A·GUI23/12H·RIO28/12A·GIL02/01H·CAS16/01H·PAR20/01A·ARO24/01A·ATH28/01H·NAC01/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.501.870.401.270.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.831.171.501.500.501.00
vs Weaker (24)1.750.331.920.231.550.45
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D03L00D02L02L01L00D32W02LA·GUI28/11H·RIO06/12A·SPO13/12A·GUI17/12H·NAC21/12A·FC 29/12H·MOR03/01H·ARO17/01A·CAS23/01H·SC 02/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.130.441.060.861.21
vs Stronger (10)0.001.600.001.750.001.50
vs Similar (20)0.950.900.580.831.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Away under 3.5 goals99.3%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap98.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 7.596.4%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals96.0%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals94.9%-------✓ Hit
Home or Draw94.1%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap94.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls93.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.591.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.589.1%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away87.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls86.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards85.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.582.8%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals82.7%-------✗ Miss
Home win81.3%-------✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals79.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners78.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls75.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.571.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards70.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
TON (32)
€25m
TOR (32)
€20m
AVS (34)
€19m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Sporting CP's squad is €441m more valuable than AVS's (€460m vs €19m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
AV (15)
€8m
TON (12)
€7m
EST (15)
€7m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
AVS (12)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
ACA (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Sporting CP's attack is €184m more valuable than AVS's (€190m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
AVS (7)
€7m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
TOR (6)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
TON (6)
€3m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Sporting CP's midfield is €65m more valuable than AVS's (€72m vs €7m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
TON (14)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
AVS (15)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Sporting CP's defence is €191m more valuable than AVS's (€198m vs €7m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
SC wins
1
Draws
0
AVS wins

Head-to-head

Sporting CP vs AVS · H/A from SC
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/25HSC Vs AVS6-0
23/02/25AAVS Vs SC2-2
22/09/24HSC Vs AVS3-0

Sporting CPSporting CP

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/26HSC Vs Nacional2-1
28/01/26AAthletic Club Vs SC2-3
24/01/26AArouca Vs SC1-2
20/01/26HSC Vs Paris Saint Germain2-1
16/01/26HSC Vs Casa Pia3-0
02/01/26AGIL Vicente Vs SC1-1
28/12/25HSC Vs Rio Ave4-0
23/12/25AGuimaraes Vs SC1-4
18/12/25ASanta Clara Vs SC2-3
13/12/25HSC Vs AVS6-0

AVSAVS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/02/26HAVS Vs SC Braga0-4
23/01/26ACasa Pia Vs AVS3-3
17/01/26HAVS Vs Arouca0-1
03/01/26HAVS Vs Moreirense0-2
29/12/25AFC Porto Vs AVS2-0
21/12/25HAVS Vs Nacional2-2
17/12/25AGuimaraes Vs AVS0-1
13/12/25ASporting CP Vs AVS6-0
06/12/25HAVS Vs Rio Ave1-2
28/11/25AGuimaraes Vs AVS4-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.40
HomeWWWWW2.50
AwayWWDWW2.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%79%69%
AVG goals3.223.383.08
Over 1.5 %92%100%85%
Over 2.5 %72%79%65%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored2.382.672.12
Conceded0.840.710.96
BTTS60%50%69%
Clean Sheet38%46%31%
Corners9.499.619.38
Cards5.784.487.09
AVS
AVS
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.68
HomeLDLLL0.58
AwayLLWLD0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%8%15%
AVG goals2.842.423.23
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %36%21%50%
Scored0.900.751.04
Conceded1.941.672.19
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet18%12%23%
Corners8.857.709.96
Cards5.386.094.71

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC PortoFC Porto3488
82%
2.6
6618+48
2.5
71%
56%
24%
8.6
35%
5.5
82%
26.4
71%
0
0001.90.5
55%
2Sporting CPSporting CP3482
74%
2.4
8924+65
3.3
91%
71%
35%
9.9
53%
5.2
62%
25.9
79%
460
190721982.60.7
62%
3BenficaBenfica3480
68%
2.4
7425+49
2.9
88%
71%
32%
10.0
56%
5.3
73%
26.8
74%
288
10593902.20.7
58%
4SC BragaSC Braga3459
47%
1.7
6436+28
2.9
76%
68%
38%
8.4
32%
5.0
79%
23.5
62%
215
10046691.91.1
63%
5FamalicaoFamalicao3456
44%
1.6
4229+13
2.1
53%
38%
24%
10.4
56%
5.1
68%
32.1
94%
109
5117411.20.9
51%
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente3450
38%
1.5
4738+9
2.5
76%
53%
26%
9.5
50%
5.1
67%
28.2
85%
61
375191.41.1
50%
7MoreirenseMoreirense3443
35%
1.3
3749-12
2.5
74%
50%
21%
8.4
35%
4.9
68%
29.2
94%
28
108101.11.4
50%
8GuimaraesGuimaraes3442
35%
1.2
3951-12
2.6
76%
44%
24%
8.4
38%
5.2
74%
29.6
88%
73
3426131.11.5
51%
9AroucaArouca3442
35%
1.2
4764-17
3.3
79%
68%
50%
9.0
44%
5.7
79%
25.9
79%
32
129111.41.9
50%
10EstorilEstoril3439
29%
1.1
5457-3
3.3
76%
62%
53%
9.3
41%
4.9
88%
25.8
82%
57
2510221.61.7
53%
11AlvercaAlverca3439
29%
1.1
3552-17
2.6
76%
50%
24%
8.9
44%
4.9
64%
26.4
71%
52
1813221.01.5
45%
12Santa ClaraSanta Clara3436
26%
1.1
3241-9
2.1
56%
35%
15%
9.0
50%
6.1
85%
29.5
94%
46
1710190.91.2
48%
13Rio AveRio Ave3436
24%
1.1
3557-22
2.7
82%
59%
29%
10.8
68%
5.2
62%
27.4
79%
53
215261.01.7
47%
14NacionalNacional3434
26%
1.0
3745-8
2.4
74%
41%
18%
10.8
68%
5.7
74%
27.2
88%
27
124101.11.3
46%
15Casa PiaCasa Pia3634
19%
0.9
3357-24
2.5
75%
42%
28%
10.0
50%
5.6
83%
29.8
92%
34
910150.91.6
41%
16EstrelaEstrela3430
18%
0.9
3856-18
2.8
74%
53%
38%
9.1
35%
5.6
82%
29.7
97%
29
77151.11.6
47%
17TondelaTondela3428
18%
0.8
2755-28
2.4
68%
50%
29%
9.8
50%
5.4
71%
26.8
82%
25
73150.81.6
44%
18AVSAVS3421
9%
0.6
2767-40
2.8
79%
59%
38%
9.5
47%
5.0
67%
24.7
71%
19
6770.82.0
39%
19TorreenseTorreense21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
6.5
100%
25.5
100%
20
6590.01.0
60%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →

← all matches